Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/14
The article may be titled Ghost’s Gems but this is Adam Strangis filling in for the one, the only, Ghost on Monday morning. The NBA playoffs keep chugging along with the Suns being the first team to reach the conference finals while the Nets are suddenly down two superstars and facing a rocky Game 5 back in Brooklyn. That game will have to wait because the other two series take center stage tonight so let’s get to work in NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 06/14!
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
NBA Core Member #1: Joel Embiid
To put this in the bluntest way possible, the Atlanta Hawks have not anything resembling an answer for Embiid in the three games so far. He’s poured in at least 27 points in every game and more importantly has logged at least 34 minutes. With a knee injury hanging over him before the series started, it’s safe to say Biid has resoundingly answered the bell. Sporting a 35% usage rate to lead all players in the playoffs, Embiid is destroying the Hawks and he sits fourth in net rating as well. He averaged about 10.7 trips to the free-throw line in the regular season but so far in this series, he’s taken 47 free throws already and has hit 38 of them. Game logs aren’t everything but seeing Biid score 58 DK on just 14 shots from the field tells you how dominant he is capable of being.
NBA Core Member #2: Furkan Korkmaz
The Sixers lost Danny Green very early in the last game and Korkmaz came off the bench to play 27 minutes for 21 DK points. During the regular season, he shot 37.5% from beyond the arc and the Hawks are third among teams remaining in three-point field goal percentage allowed. Only the Clippers and the Jazz allow a higher percentage and make no mistake, that’s pretty much why you’re playing Korkmaz. He needs to hit three’s to have value but I’m encouraged that he played the most minutes out of himself, Matisse Thybulle, and Shake Milton. Thybulle will contribute virtually nothing on the offensive end and Korkmaz went from six minutes in Game 2 to 27 last game. That’s enough for me, at least sitting here on Sunday night.
NBA Core Member #3: Nicholas Batum
Clippers Coach Ty Lue finally saw enough of Ivica Zubac in the starting lineup and elected to play smaller, using Batum and Marcus Morris along with Kawhi, Paul George, and Reggie Jackson. Batum responded with 35 minutes of complementary basketball to Kawhi and PG13, racking up 32 DK points. Zubac has been down to 13 and 14 minutes in the past two games and that particular starting lineup helped get the Clips their first win in the series. We can safely say to not expect 30 DK from Batum very often because he’s not going to shoot the ball a ton. His nine shots last game were the most of the playoffs so far. He’ll still grab a couple of boards and dish a couple of assists. At $4,500, we’re looking for time on the court and Batum fills that role. The 22 minutes from Marcus Morris were his fewest by a lot this series and it likely wasn’t a coincidence Batum went from 27 to 35.
NBA Core Member #4: Kawhi Leonard
From my perspective, we have to choose a lane between Kawhi or Jazz guard Donovan Mitchell. You could fade Embiid and ultra-stack the late game, but that is not likely to be my path. Mitchell has been unreal this postseason but there are two reasons I side with Kawhi. One, he has a 28% usage rate and while that is significantly lower than Mitchell, Kawhi offers a more well-rounded game. He averages more rebounds, only .5 assists fewer, and over two steals per game.
Kawhi was also put on Mitchell more defensively this past game and that seemed to really get Kawhi going. He was far too quiet in Game’s 1 and 2, both losses. Leonard only shot 1-6 from deep and still put up 63 DK points. LA cannot go down 3-1 heading back to Utah or this one is likely over. My other major fear was seeing Mitchell leave the game with his ankle issue last time. Yes, Mitchell could have come back but the ankle is very clearly not 100% right. One bad landing could send him out (and we all hope that doesn’t happen). On average, Kawhi has scored 53.15 per game this playoffs while Mitchell is barely over 50 (and I’m not counting his first game back from injury). Kawhi also has the higher ceiling with three games over 60 DK and seven over 55. I’m taking him in another must-win game where he’ll have the Clippers on his back.
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
