DFSGhost 
As teams either get eliminated from playoff contention or jockey for seeding, late season NBA DFS is a beast like no other. Fortunately, we’ve been on a ridiculous run lately and look to keep it rolling with another slate on tap that features marquee matchups and massive implications on playoff scenarios. It’s Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
LaMelo Ball ($7,500 FD / $8,500 DK)
While the Lillard/CP3 duo in the last game of the NBA slate is enticing, my primary target at the ‘1’ will be none other than the best player from the most recent draft class. Primary ball handlers versus the Clippers has been a key point of attack all season long, and there should be no change any time soon, making Ball an intriguing target at an affordable price to prioritize the big man battle in the Indiana/Milwaukee game; LA has most recently been decimated by the likes of Derrick Rose, Fred VanVleet, and a PJ Dozier/Facundo Campazzo combination, all of whom are inferior offensively to the most gifted Ball brother. Sporting a 28.8% usage rate since his return from a wrist injury, LaMelo needed a mere 21 minutes to drop 28.3 DK points against the Clippers in a previous meeting this season, setting the stage for a big night.
Malachi Flynn ($5,500 FD / $5,700 DK)
Lather, rinse, repeat. Let everyone else talk about their statistics and efficiency – these Raptors will all be playing 25+ minutes tonight in the absence of Kyle Lowry, Fred VanVleet, Pascal Siakam, OG Anunoby, and Chris Boucher. Looking for value on this NBA slate? It’s right here in Toronto.
Also Consider:
- Damian Lillard ($9,700 FD / $9,500 DK)
- Chris Paul ($8,100 FD / $8,000 DK)
- Dejounte Murray ($7,200 FD / $7,000 DK)
Shooting Guards
D’Angelo Russell ($7,700 FD / $7,800 DK)
Now having logged 30 or more minutes in four of his last five games, DLo looks to continue his late season run to end a disappointing season on a good note. Sporting a 27.7% usage rate in the same span, DLo has posted a 19.6/4/9.2 scoring line while taking over 17 FGA per night and gets a friendly matchup versus a Nuggets backcourt that has been struggling versus primary ball handlers since the absences of Jamal Murray, Will Barton, and PJ Dozier; with 42.4 DK PPG in his last five, he’s the primary target on the Minnesota side with Towns having his hands full with Jokic.
Terry Rozier ($7,600 FD / $7,700 DK)
If you’re not playing LaMelo Ball, take a good look at rostering Terry Rozier tonight. Logging a ridiculous 40.5 MPG across his last three contests, Rozier has had a 26% usage rate while posting a 30.7/4.3/5 scoring line and 47.25 DK PPG. In a matchup versus the Clippers, his ability to play both as the primary ball handler and off-ball will be on full-display, making him a priority in the midrange on tonight’s NBA slate.
Also Consider:
- CJ McCollum ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)
- Devin Booker ($7,500 FD / $8,300 DK)
- Terence Davis ($6,300 FD / $5,900 DK)
- Gary Trent Jr. ($4,900 FD / $6,000 DK)
Small Forwards
Michael Porter Jr. ($7,400 FD / $8,600 DK)
From the last Denver NBA slate:
“While the price is a tad steep for my liking on DK, MPJ slots in well at an option at SF on FD, where his price has dropped over the past week despite averaging 26.7 PPG over his last ten games, in addition to contributing 6.2 RPG on the glass. Although Jokic will take center stage on a nightly basis, MPJ has quickly become the secondary scoring option for the Nuggets, making him an intriguing option in a matchup versus a Hornets team that ranks 26th in the NBA against small forward, allowing nearly 44 FPPG.”
MPJ dropped 44 DK at sub 5% ownership – enjoy.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,300 FD / $7,500 DK)
Make that now three straight games where Bogdanovic puts up 20 or more points and logs heavy minutes for the Hawks; same principle as the last NBA slate where all three of Atlanta, New York, and Miami need wins to get the 4 and 5 seed, respectively. A matchup against Orlando isn’t a scary one for the Hawks, but the 38.3 MPG and 24.3 PPG in his last three gives me more than enough confidence in Bogdanovic here.
Also Consider:
- Anthony Edwards ($8,500 FD / $8,000 DK)
- Kawhi Leonard ($8,200 FD / $8,400 DK)
- RJ Barrett ($6,200 FD / $6,500 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 FD / $10,900 DK)
Highest ceiling on the NBA slate against an Indiana frontcourt that is missing Myles Turner? Sign me up.
Domantas Sabonis ($10,500 FD / $10,700 DK)
The most underrated player in the NBA going back and forth with Giannis – you know what to do.
Also Consider:
- Julius Randle ($9,000 FD / $9,400 DK)
- Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,000 FD / $5,900 DK)
- Freddie Gillespie ($3,700 FD / $3,600 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Jokic ($10,800 FD / $11,000 DK)
- Wendall Carter Jr. ($5,800 FD / $6,000 DK)
- Chimezie Metu ($4,200 FD / $4,100 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
