DFSGhost 
Crushed yesterday with flames everywhere and when the only letdown is Giannis, you know you nailed another NBA slate. Tonight, we have marquee matchups that will ultimately impact playoff seeding for both the first round and the play-in tournament, so let’s identify which players we’re eyeing early on. It’s Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($11,600 FD / $11,000 DK)
Do I really have to explain why we need to consider Russell Westbrook on every NBA slate until the end of the season? He’s sporting a 27.3% usage rate in the last month, posting a 22.2/13.5/13.3 triple-double average while scoring 65 DK PPG. Yeah, it’s safe to say that his ceiling is high and there’s no stopping him any time soon.
Steph Curry ($9,900 FD / $10,600 DK)
Sure, a matchup against OKC doesn’t exactly scream ceiling game to most – but it should. Curry comes into this one sporting a 37.9% usage rate in the past month, where he’s averaged 37.1/5.8/4.9 on 50.5% shooting and 6.9 3PM per night. In addition, he gets an OKC team that ranks 28th in the NBA against primary ball handlers, allowing over 50 FPPG. It won’t take long for the greatest shooter of all time to go off tonight.
Also Consider:
- Luka Doncic ($10,900 FD / $10,900 DK)
- Kyrie Irving ($9,900 FD / $9,700 DK)
- Kyle Lowry ($8,200 FD / $7,700 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($8,900 FD / $9,300 DK)
While Steph Curry, who leads the NBA is scoring, has been more explosive of late, nobody has been scoring as consistently as Bradley Beal through the season’s entirety. Scoring under 20 points only once in the last 16 games is quite the feat, but with Westbrook taking the spotlight away from him lately, his performances have flown under the radar; Beal has a 33.5% usage rate in these last 16 games, posting a remarkable 30.7 PPG on 48.7% shooting while taking over 23 FGA per night. Yes, the price is high, and Westbrook is the Wizard we want to own, but who says we can’t play both?
Fred VanVleet ($8,000 FD / $8,000 DK)
We’ll have to wait for an updated injury report from the Raptors to confirm his availability, but if both he and Kyle Lowry are a go tonight, I’ll side with VanVleet in this one. Sporting a 30.7% usage rate in his last two games, FVV has posted a 28.5/10 double-double while adding 4 RPG. The 56 DK PPG is well indicative of his offensive production, but this has happened all while shooting 42.9% from the field and a mere 36% from behind the arc; a matchup versus the 20th ranked defense in the NBA bodes well for him to have a good night at a discounted rate.
Also Consider:
- Terry Rozier ($6,200 FD / $7,600 DK)
- Dillon Brooks ($5,500 FD / $6,000 DK)
- Desmond Bane ($4,800 FD / $3,600 DK)
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($10,600 FD / $9,900 DK)
Dropping 30+ points in four of his last five and coming off back-to-back losses to Giannis and the Bucks has Durant motivated to come out making a statement tonight. Sporting a 33% usage rate during that span, KD has posted a 33.2/7.6/5.2 scoring line while shooting a ridiculous 56.1% from the field and 54.5% from deep, including 90.3% from the charity stripe. With no Porzingis tonight for the Mavericks, good luck to anyone trying to guard one of the best scorers in the NBA, let alone of all time.
Saddiq Bey ($6,400 FD / $6,300 DK)
With Detroit essentially playing for the #1 pick in the upcoming draft, look for Saddiq Bey to close out his rookie season with a ton of minutes and opportunity. In his last ten games, the first rounder from this past NBA draft has logged 31.3 MPG for the Pistons, sporting a 19.2% usage rate while posting 13.6 PPG and 2.9 3PM per night and gets a Memphis defense that allows opponents to shoot 36.8% from deep, ranking 18th in the league. With no Josh Jackson or Jerami Grant on the wing tonight, it’ll Bey soaking up all the minutes he can handle.
Also Consider:
- Kawhi Leonard ($8,800 FD / $8,800 DK)
- Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,400 FD / $7,300 DK)
- Caleb Martin ($5,000 FD / $3,900 DK)
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($10,500 FD / $10,400 DK)
The most underrated player in the NBA has been unleashed! Sporting a mere 23.5% usage rate in his last three games after returning from a two-week absence, Sabonis has simply been on fire with limited touches, posting a 25/17/10.3 triple-double average across 36.6 MPG while shooting 70.5% from the field. Although Clint Capela poses as a defensive threat to Sabonis’ ceiling in this one, the Hawks are on the second half of a back-to-back and have been playing John Collins at the ‘5’ against smaller teams, which would give Sabonis yet another opportunity to get a triple-double.
Pascal Siakam ($8,600 FD / $8,100 DK)
Logging over 38 minutes in three straight for the Raptors, Pascal Siakam finds himself in a great spot versus a vulnerable Washington frontcourt that has been decimated all season long; Siakam comes into this one with a 25.9% usage rate and 1.11 FPPM but thrives versus smaller lineups in fast paced game environments, making him an intriguing mid-range target on this NBA slate.
Also Consider:
- PJ Washington ($6,600 FD / $6,600 DK)
- Darius Bazely ($6,500 FD / $6,200 DK)
- Isaiah Stewart ($5,800 FD / $6,500 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,000 FD / $10,300 DK)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($8,100 FD / $7,800 DK)
- Moses Brown ($4,900 FD / $4,800 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
