NBA DFS: Ghost’s Gems 05/04

Three rules to an NBA slate:

1. Follow the core
2. Never leave the table on a heater
3. See rules 1 & 2

It’s Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Cheat Sheet
• Articles of the Day

Point Guards

Steph Curry ($9,700 FD / $10,400 DK)

I pointed out that we needed to find a way to jam Curry or Draymond into our NBA lineups yesterday while locking Sabonis and Westbrook and man, did it pay off. In the exact same matchup as last night against a Pelicans team that ranks last in the NBA against primary ball handlers, bottom-5 in defensive rating since the All-Star break, and bottom-5 in made three-pointers and three-point shooting percentage, Curry is as good tonight as he was yesterday, when he dropped 41/4/8 and 8 three-pointers, good for 62 DK points.

LaMelo Ball ($6,200 FD / $7,100 DK)

Making his improbable return from a fractured wrist at the beginning of the month, LaMelo Ball has now seen 28 and 30 minutes in his first two games since March. Sporting a 28.7% usage rate and posting a 12.5/6.5/6.5 scoring line, Ball picked up right where he left off in his rookie campaign and now gets a massive price discount while taking on one of, if not the worst team in the NBA in Detroit, who allow over 48 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers.

Also Consider:

• Kyrie Irving ($9,500 FD / $9,600 DK)
• Jrue Holiday ($8,000 FD / $8,100 DK)
• Kyle Lowry ($7,400 FD / $7,400 DK)

Shooting Guards

• I’ll be punting the position altogether on this NBA slate because my priority spend ups are at the point guard, small forward, and power forward position. Make sure to check the projections page, but guys like Ty Jerome ($4,800 FD / $3,500 DK) and Terence Davis ($3,800 FD / $4,000 DK) are top of mind early on.

Small Forwards

Kevin Durant ($10,300 FD / $9,300 DK)

He’s playing on another level right now and is fresh off a duel with Giannis which saw Durant drop 42/10/2 on 33 FGA. Durant comes into this one with a 33.6% usage rate across his last four contests, having posted a 33.5/7.3/5 scoring line on 57.6% shooting, including 56% from behind the arc, and it doesn’t look like one of the best scorers of all time is slowing down anytime soon. If you’re looking for star power on this NBA slate – which you should be – it starts right here in the BKN/MIL matchup.

Buddy Hield ($7,000 FD / $7,300 DK)

Am I in love with this play? Absolutely not. The players around this price range? Even worse. But if I am taking a chance on anyone in this midrange, especially on FD where you need to roster two small forwards, I’ll gladly take the one that will be a lock to see 20+ shots tonight in the absence of two guards that shoulder the load on offense. The Kings will be without both De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton tonight, and Hield has seen 30 or more minutes in seven straight now, averaging 13.5 FGA per night.

Also Consider:

• Kawhi Leonard ($9,000 FD / $8,800 DK)
• Brandon Ingram ($7,300 FD / $7,900 DK)
• Saddiq Bey ($6,200 FD / $6,000 DK)

Power Forwards

Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 FD / $10,700 DK)

As I pointed out in the Durant blurb, these two just faces off one another, where Giannis had massive praise for KD after a 3-point win where he dropped 49/8/4 in his own right and led the way with a whopping 36 FGA. He won’t leave the court, has the highest upside on the entire NBA slate, and is as close to a lock as it gets.

Marvin Bagley ($5,500 FD / $5,000 DK)

In the absence of both De’Aaron Fox and Tyrese Haliburton for the Kings tonight, most will flock to the backcourt trio of Buddy Hield, Delon Wright, and Terence Davis, and rightfully so. However, the one offensive talent that will go overlooked is none other than the player who got drafted before Luka Doncic. After an extended absence due to another nagging injury in his young career, Bagley has since played two games for the Kings, seeing his minutes rise from 21 to 34 in their last outing versus Dallas; sporting a 25.4% usage rate that night, Bagley dropped 23/9/3 in 34 minutes while also taking 16 shots and gets an OKC Thunder team tonight that ranks last in the NBA versus opposing power forwards, allowing over 49 FPPG.

Also Consider:

• Zion Williamson ($9,600 FD / $9,900 DK)
• Draymond Green ($7,600 FD / $7,100 DK)
• Isaiah Stewart ($6,200 FD / $6,300 DK)

Centers

• Bam Adebayo ($8,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
• Richaun Holmes ($6,600 FD / $6,300 DK)
• Willy Hernangomez ($4,900 FD / $5,100 DK)

Value Gems: Check the projection model.

I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.

You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost