Christopher Day 
As I said yesterday, if you follow the core, you win money in NBA – simple as that, folks. Shoutout to @JayTheGuru21 in Discord for this gem on the night slate! Never leave the table on a heater…
A much smaller NBA slate is on tap tonight with only four games scheduled. The key news here will be whether Giannis Antetokounmpo plays for the Bucks and whether we have enough value to get studs into our lineups. It’s Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($10,500 FD / $10,600 DK)
I really should not have to tell you why you need to play Curry on tonight’s NBA slate. On the second half of a back-to-back, there are concerns that he may sit, but at the time of writing, he’s in the lineup, so he’s in mine – simple as that. Averaging 38.9/6.6/4.6 on 55.4% shooting including 49.1% from behind the arc, Curry’s carrying a 36.1% usage rate in his last eight games; he’s simply playing out of this world and will be no match for the Cavaliers young backcourt duo in Garland and Sexton.
Trae Young ($9,100 FD / $9,100 DK)
Another star point guard that is tagged as questionable to play tonight, Trae Young will certainly have his hands full if he’s a go in this one. With the Hawks making a 7-1 run in their last eight, Trae has been shouldering the load on offense in the absence of Cam Reddish and De’Andre Hunter; Young is carrying a 34.3% usage rate during this run, where he’s posted a clean 23.5/10.3 double-double and flashing his passing ability on a nightly basis. On an NBA slate where we’re starving for value, he may not make my main lineup, but he’s certainly in play on such a small slate.
Chris Paul ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)
If we cannot find sufficient value on this NBA slate, CP3 will climb the rankings. Yes, it should be a fairly easy win for the Suns tonight, but there’s denying the ability for their backcourt to have great games against the league’s worst defense in Sacramento. Averaging 9.67 assists in his last three games, CP3 has been doing CP3 things and now gets a Kings defense that allows over 25 assists per game and 49 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers.
Also Consider:
- Jrue Holiday ($8,400 FD / $8,400 DK)
- Darius Garland ($6,700 FD / $6,600 DK)
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker ($9,000 FD / $8,700 DK)
He had Jimmy Butler put the clamps on him in his last game versus Miami, where he shot 4-for-16 en route to a pedestrian 12/3/3 scoring line, but Booker had nine straight game of 20 or more points before that. Tonight, there is no Jimmy Butler waiting for him on the end, rather, it’s the worst defense in the NBA. Averaging 29.1 PPG in his last ten, the former Kentucky standout is a walking bucket in a great matchup.
Collin Sexton ($7,400 FD / $7,500 DK)
He’s been in and out of the lineup with some nagging injuries, but when he plays, Sexton is the entire Cavaliers offense. In the past month, Sexton has only scored under 20 points once – that’s right, once. Sporting a 28.7% usage rate and 24.1 PPG on the season, a matchup versus the Warriors, who play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA, bodes well for Sexton’s game.
Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400 FD / $6,400 DK)
The matchup is brutal, but with how thin our options are, you can certainly do a lot worse than Haliburton on this NBA slate. With Buddy Hield questionable to play the tail end of Sacramento’s back-to-back, Haliburton will get the spot start should Hield be ruled out. Averaging 14.1/2.5/5.3 in 31.8 MPG in 15 starts this season, he’ll have ample opportunity to put up over 10 shots.
Also Consider:
- Donte DiVincenzo ($5,800 FD / $5,900 DK)
- Kevin Huerter ($5,400 FD / $5,100 DK)
Small Forwards
Jaylen Brown ($8,000 FD / $8,100 DK)
Not in love with the play whatsoever since the game environment is far from elite, but there is no denying that JB is the safest option at the position on this NBA slate. With LA still missing both Anthony Davis and LeBron, JB will be able to get to the hoop a lot easier than he should be in this matchup, and with four straight games with 20 or more points on a 26% usage rate, his floor is as safe as it gets.
Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,300 FD / $7,200 DK)
With four of his last five games resulting in 20 or more points, it’s clear by now that Bog has stepped up in the absence of multiple Hawks. Both he and Kevin Huerter and primary benefactors of more minutes, but it’s been Bog that’s been eating them all up; back-to-back games with 40 or more minutes means his volume is as good as it gets in this price range for tonight’s NBA slate and he’s in the most competitive game environment.
Kent Bazemore ($5,000 FD / $4,900 DK)
Filling in for Kelly Oubre Jr. on the wing in the starting 5, Bazemore is a product of his surrounding. Seeing healthy minutes in a high octane offense with the way Steph Curry is playing right now is a recipe for success, and that’s exactly what Bazemore has been lately; averaging 24.7 DK PPG in his last five, his floor is good enough if we cannot find punt value later in the NBA slate.
Also Consider:
- Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $8,300 DK)
- Taurean Prince ($5,300 FD / $5,300 DK)
Power Forwards
Pay Ups
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 FD / $10,800 DK)
- Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $9,400 DK)
- Draymond Green ($7,100 FD / $7,100 DK)
Also Consider:
- Isaiah Hartenstein ($6,100 FD / $5,500 DK)
- Dean Wade ($5,200 FD / $5,100 DK)
- Jae Crowder ($4,800 FD / $4,400 DK)
Centers
- Clint Capela ($9,000 FD / $8,900 DK)
- Deandre Ayton ($7,400 FD / $6,700 DK)
- Jarrett Allen ($7,100 FD / $7,700 DK)
- Hassan Whiteside ($5,000 FD / $3,400 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
