Christopher Day 
A ton of green screens over the weekend and we’re looking to keep it going into a new week of NBA action. Some early injury news includes players such as Kyrie Irving, James Harden, and Mike Conley being ruled out, while others such as Jordan Clarkson are already listed as doubtful, while there are more to come considering the number of teams on the second half of a back-to-back. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($10,100 FD / $10,300 DK)
Six straight games scoring 30 or more points and Curry has turned the Warriors slide into quite an individual run. Despite going 2-4 in that stretch, Curry cannot fault himself for a lack of contribution; he has a 35.7% usage rate while posting a 36/6.8/4.2 scoring line on 52.6% shooting, taking over 22 FGA per game for his team and has one of the highest ceilings on tonight’s NBA slate. While Aaron Gordon was brought in to solidify Denver’s defense after losing both Jerami Grant and Mason Plumlee in the offseason, it’s quite the mismatch for him to guard Steph on the perimeter, and the combination of Murray/Campazzo cannot contain the greatest shooter of all time. GPP Play
De’Aaron Fox ($9,500 FD / $9,300 DK)
A serious edge to be had here if Fox has a big game – I know, it sounds easier said than done and you probably read that and said “well, duh!” but it’s the truth. Coming into this NBA slate, Fox is priced amongst the elite options at the positions, including Russell Westbrook, Luka Doncic, and Steph Curry – most will not play him. However, there is a strong case to do exactly the opposite and make him a core part of your build in large field contests; Fox has a 30.3% usage rate in his last four games, but has posted a 27.8/5/7.5 scoring line on 46.8% shooting while taking 20 FGA per game and logging a heavy 38 MPG. In a matchup versus New Orleans, who ranks 28th in the NBA versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 50 FPPG, my interest is peaked. GPP Play
Dejounte Murray ($7,400 FD / $7,100 DK)
One of my favorite plays in the midrange of tonight’s NBA slate, Dejounte has had quite the season for the Spurs. On the second half of a back-to-back, there are no concerns about his minutes like there was last season with Derrick White in the fold, as Murray has clearly become the main man in San Antonio. Sporting a 25.1% usage rate in his last four games, Murray has posted an 18.8/5.5/5 scoring line on 47.8% shooting while taking over 17 FGA per game, much more than his season average of 14.5. He’s being more aggressive, and he gets a friendly matchup versus a rebuilding Magic team, led by Cole Anthony. GPP + Cash Play
Also Consider:
- Russell Westbrook ($11,000 FD / $11,000 DK)
- Luka Doncic ($10,200 FD / $10,700 DK)
- Ja Morant ($7,100 FD / $6,800 DK)
Shooting Guards
Donovan Mitchell ($9,000 FD / $9,200 DK)
Utah is where I’m starting my cash builds tonight and I recommend you do the same. It’s impossible to discuss fantasy implications surrounding the Jazz without mentioning Donovan Mitchell, who leads the charge on the offensive end; in his last three games, Mitchell has a ridiculous 42.7% usage rate while posting 40 PPG to go along with 5.3 RPG and 3.7 APG, taking an outrageous 30 FGA per outing. In a matchup versus Washington, who plays at the fastest pace in the NBA while ranking 26th in defensive rating and 29th versus primary ball handlers, Mitchell stands out above the rest, especially since Mike Conley has been ruled out and Jordan Clarkson is doubtful to play. Cash + GPP Play
Zach Lavine ($8,700 FD / $8,700 DK)
Back-to-back 30-point outings for Lavine and he’s got his stride back from the first half of the NBA season. Logging 35 or more minutes in each of his past five games for the Bulls, Lavine has a 32.9% usage rate and 29.2 PPG while shooting 48.2% from the field on 22 FGA per night. The acquisition of Nikola Vucevic looked to have put a cap on his ceiling, but with the two coinciding well together in the past week, there’s room for Lavine to exploit this matchup versus a Memphis defense that struggles versus combo guards. Cash + GPP Play
Joe Ingles ($5,500 FD / $5,700 DK)
Stepping into the starting 5 with Mike Conley ruled out, Ingles is a cash game lock on tonight’s NBA slate and is worthy to play in tournaments as well. A spike in usage rate, assist rate, and shooting attempts with Conley off the floor gives him the upside we need in all formats. Cash Lock + GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Devin Booker ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)
- D’Angelo Russell ($7,500 FD / $6,600 DK)
- Bruce Brown ($5,500 FD / $4,800 DK)
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)
No Kyrie and no Harden. I don’t have to spell this one out for you with fancy statistics and a bunch of NBA DFS talk. The minutes are a tad concerning, but considering Durant went from 19 minutes to 24 minutes in his first two games back, he should be good for 30 tonight. Don’t overthink it. Cash + GPP Play
Anthony Edwards ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)
Even with D’Angelo Russell returning to the lineup and playing decent minutes off the bench, it’s the #1 overall of this past NBA draft that is second to KAT in production; Edwards has logged 34 or more minutes in five straight games, sporting a 26% usage rate while posting a 22.4/4.8/3.2 scoring line on 44.7% shooting, while taking 17 FGA per game. He’s the clear second option behind Towns, and although he loses touches when DLo comes into the game, Brooklyn’s defense – or lack thereof – presents Edwards with ample opportunity to thrive tonight. GPP Play
Michael Porter Jr. ($7,600 FD / $7,000 DK)
In the absence of Jamal Murray, MPJ has stepped up to be the second option on offense behind NBA MVP favorite, Nikola Jokic. Six of MPJ’s last seven games resulted in him scoring 20 or more points while logging 30 or more minutes in six of seven as well; he has a modest 23.3% usage rate in that span, but the 22/9.4/1.1 scoring line provides him with a solid floor/ceiling combination, especially if Murray is out. GPP Play (Cash if Murray out)
Also Consider:
- Brandon Ingram ($8,000 FD / $8,500 DK)
- Joe Harris ($5,300 FD / $5,600 DK)
- Kent Bazemore ($5,200 FD / $4,300 DK)
Power Forwards
Zion Williamson ($10,000 FD / $9,700 DK)
If we take the blowout loss to Brooklyn out of the question, I’m not sure there’s a player that’s been as hot as Zion Williamson on the court as of late. Scoring 34 or more points in six of his past seven, the real alpha in New Orleans is finally taking over games. Tonight, he gets a Sacramento defense that ranks last in the NBA and – to no one’s surprise – also rank last in the NBA in points allowed per game at 53.5. Zion just so happens to lead the league in points in the paint per game with 20. Who ranks second you ask? Giannis, with, wait for it, 16.9/game. There’s no one as dominant as Zion is in the paint and this is the dream matchup for him. Cash + GPP Play
Julius Randle ($9,600 FD / $9,600 DK)
Averaging nearly 50 DK PPG in his last give games played, Randle has been the consistent force for the Knicks that he has been all season long. Putting up a 22/10/7.4 scoring line is something, but Randle also leads the Knicks in all statistical categories while getting a favorable matchup versus a Lakers frontcourt that remains without AD. While he will be just fine in the paint, it’s his perimeter game that will shine tonight against Andre Drummond while he facilitates the offense like every other night. GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Jaden McDaniels ($5,200 FD / $4,500 DK)
- Daniel Theis ($4,100 FD / $3,300 DK)
- Nicolas Claxton ($4,000 FD / $3,100 DK)
Centers
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($11,300 FD / $10,500 DK)
- Nikola Jokic ($10,800 FD / $10,400 DK)
- Joel Embiid ($10,400 FD / $10,100 DK)
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,500 FD / $9,100 DK)
- Andre Drummond ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
