Christopher Day 
Low scoring NBA slate last night with a ton of chalk busting, but our Donovan Mitchell exposure made us wildly successful. Onto another night of action, a few teams are on back-to-backs with players typically resting in situations like this. It’s Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems and we’ll get an early look on where to start our lineups.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($10,300 FD / $10,900 DK)
In a game where they were favored as much as 12 points versus Houston last night, not only did the Mavericks not cover the spread, but they lost outright by 9 – embarrassing. While it was fun to see John Wall tear it up on the court, it only solidified my concerns with this Dallas team, but tonight, there’s no denying the fact that Luka will want to come out better than he did last night. Despite posting a respectable 23/9/5 scoring line in 37 minutes, he only shot 9-for-26 from the floor, including 1-for-9 from deep; in one previous meeting between these two teams, Doncic dropped a cool 28/10/13 triple-double and may be without Kristaps Porzingis on the second half of a back-to-back. Cash + GPP Play
Jrue Holiday ($8,800 FD / $8,100 DK)
With Giannis Antetokounmpo doubtful to play tonight, we can turn to the Milwaukee rotations when starting our NBA lineups. There is no denying that they will pull massive ownership numbers, which is perfect for our cash games, but I’m not opposed to getting exposure in GPPs as well. IN his last 5 games, Jrue Holiday has a 28.3% usage rate while posting a 27.2/5.2/7.8 scoring line on 62.4% shooting – good enough for 51.1 DK PPG. While Middleton will still likely be the higher owned of the two, I side with Holiday tonight. Cash + GPP Play
Chris Paul ($8,200 FD / $8,300 DK)
One of the most competitive game environments on the NBA slate sees two contenders out West between Phoenix and LA. His numbers take a dip on the second half of back-to-backs, but the veteran will be able to do what he does best: facilitate. Primary ball handlers versus LAC on any day of the week ending in ‘y’. GPP Play
Also Consider:
- De’Aaron Fox ($9,300 FD / $9,300 DK)
- Malachi Flynn ($6,000 FD / $4,700 DK)
- Killian Hayes ($4,000 FD / $3,200 DK)
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker ($9,000 FD / $9,200 DK)
We’re talking about CP3 facilitating on the offensive end tonight because of the second end of a back-to-back, but who will dominate the scoring? Look no further than the face of the Suns franchise, Devin Booker. Scoring a whopping 30 or more points in five of his past six games, Booker has a ridiculous 36.3% usage rate for someone that isn’t necessarily the primary ball handler at all times. Averaging 34/4.2/4 on 50% shooting while taking over 23 FGA during this stretch is simply remarkable, and while it’s scary to play a pure scorer on any given night in NBA DFS, the upside is second to none when his shot is dropping at this rate. GPP Play
Donovan Mitchell ($7,800 FD / $8,600 DK)
Hopefully people tailed the Mitchell writeup from yesterday, which saw him as a key contributor to the optimal lineup on both sites after a 41/8/3 outing in an overtime loss to Phoenix. Tonight, Mitchell and the Jazz get a pesky Trail Blazers offense on the backend of a back-to-back; Mike Conley can possibly sit, but even if he doesn’t, Mitchell price drop is something I will gladly take advantage of versus the 29th ranked defense in the NBA and with 35 FGA last night – this guy is the Jazz offense. Cash + GPP Play
Collin Sexton ($7,500 FD / $7,600 DK)
A pure scorer versus a rebuilding OKC team, Sexton finds himself in a great spot on tonight’s NBA slate. Posting 20 or more points in 9 of his last 10, the variance is there if his shot isn’t dropping, but there’s nobody to slow him down tonight and recent trends indicate the same; over the same stretch, not only is Sexton scoring at will with 24.8 PPG, but he also has a 30.5% usage rate and is logging over 35 MPG while taking 19 FGA per game. GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Paul George ($8,700 FD / $8,200 DK)
- Tyrese Haliburton ($6,000 FD / $6,500 DK)
- Jalen Brunson ($5,500 FD / $5,300 DK)
Small Forwards
Kawhi Leonard ($10,000 FD / $9,400 DK)
As safe as it gets at a thin SF position on tonight’s NBA slate. I’m not expecting a ceiling game from Kawhi in this one, but for cash games, where floor is more important than ceiling, he fits the bill. Scoring 20 or more points in 7 of his last 8 games, Kawhi is sporting a 27.7% usage rate and has a 25.1/8.3/5.5 scoring line on 53.2% shooting during that stretch. Cash Play
Khris Middleton ($8,200 FD / $7,800 DK)
I’m fading him in GPPs tonight, but you can get exposure to him in any way you can – just know that so is the majority of the field. Given Jrue Holiday’s price point and recent production, I don’t feel the need to get exposure to Middleton in GPPs, but he’s a staple in our NBA cash game lineups due to his ownership percentage with Giannis ruled out. Cash Lock
Saddiq Bey ($5,100 FD / $4,300 DK)
In the absence of Jerami Grant tonight, the Pistons will be starving for scoring. Enter rookie Saddiq Bey, who has a mediocre 17.7% usage rate as a starter this season, but averages over 29 MPG and a 12.3/4.3/1.7 scoring line while taking over 10 FGA per game. Not a necessity on FD where he’s priced higher than on DK and where there are no bonuses for 3PM, but he’s a lock for me on DK tonight unless something drastic changes. Look for updates in Discord. Cash + GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Jimmy Butler ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)
- Buddy Hield ($6,200 FD / $6,000 DK)
- Patrick Williams ($4,500 FD / $4,500 DK)
Power Forwards
Pascal Siakam ($8,700 FD / $8,500 DK)
With FVV and Bembry suspended for one game following OG’s altercation with Montrezl Harrell, Siakam is the primary option for a deleted Raptors rotation. Minutes are a concern, but if the ownership is heavy, we cannot avoid it in NBA cash games tonight. Cash Play
Bobby Portis ($5,800 FD / $5,300 DK)
Giannis is out so we need to look at Bobby Portis. It’s not complicated, don’t overthink it; in three starts this season, Portis has posted a 14/10.7/1 scoring line across 31.1 MPG wile shooting 56.7% from the field. Easy play for NBA cash lineups and good chalk in GPPs as well. Cash + GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Lauri Markkanen ($4,700 FD / $4,500 DK)
- Dean Wade ($4,500 FD / $4,600 DK)
- Isaiah Hartenstein ($4,000 FD / $4,400 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $9,100 DK)
- Rudy Gobert ($8,100 FD / $7,800 DK)
- Andre Drummond ($5,200 FD / $6,500 DK)
- Moses Brown ($5,100 FD / $6,600 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
