Christopher Day 
Smashed yesterday’s NBA slate and tonight is yet another with plenty of injury news to follow; value will surely open up, as it does every slate, and we’ll need to take advantage in order to get multiple studs into our lineups. There are stars aplenty to choose from, so this early look will allow us to focus on lineup construction before nailing down the individual plays. It’s Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($11,000 FD / $11,100 DK)
Easiest play on the board if Bradley Beal remains sidelined. Coming into tonight’s NBA slate, Russell Westbrook is turning in vintage performances, where he’s averaged 24.4/13.6/12.6 on 43.2% shooting in his last fives games, while also carrying a 32.7% usage rate. Facing off against a rebuilding Orlando team, this is one Washington needs to have a chance at the play-in round. Cash + GPP Play
Kyrie Irving ($10,400 FD / $10,200 DK)
This is where things start to not only get interesting, but also expensive. Kyrie will be without backcourt partner James Harden, but his lock status changes drastically with the return of Kevin Durant to the lineup. Nonetheless, if you’re looking to get different, there is no better spot than Kyrie; he’s fresh off a 40/2/7 game where Harden left after four minutes of action, and with everyone playing KD, no one will play Kyrie on tonight’s NBA slate. GPP Play
Luka Doncic ($10,300 FD / $10,900 DK)
Talk about the forgotten stud on this NBA slate. Sure, most will prioritize Westbrook before playing Doncic, but his matchup is simply too good to overlook completely. Houston ranks 23rd in the league versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 49 FPPG to the position. In five straight games of 25 or more points for Luka, he also has a 38.6% usage rate in that stretch, averaging a 28.8/7.2/6.6 scoring line on 51.4% shooting. GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Trae Young ($8,200 FD / $8,800 DK)
- Lonzo Ball ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
- RJ Hampton ($4,800 FD / $4,500 DK)
Shooting Guards
Donovan Mitchell ($8,200 FD / $8,800 DK)
The position is ugly tonight and FD gives us no breaks in having to roster two of them. One thing I want to make clear is that if Bradley Beal plays tonight, he is a lock on FD at only $8,300. But until we get that news, Donovan Mitchell slides in here as the top option in a battle of the Western Conference heavyweights. Although Rudy Gobert anchors the defensive end and contributes on both sides of the floor, it’s Mitchell’s 32.4% usage rate and 25.4/4.4/5.4 scoring line on the season that has propelled the Jazz to top seed in the NBA. GPP + Cash Play
Terrence Ross ($6,600 FD / $6,400 DK)
With the Orlando Magic looking to evaluate their bubble players and see where they fit in future plans for the organization, there is a possibility that Ross sees limited action on a nightly basis. For this price, he is on the outside looking in for my lineups, but again, with the lack of options at SG on FD, he is firmly in play versus a Washington team that plays at the fastest pace in the NBA and allows over 42 FPPG to opposing slashers. GPP Play
Jalen Brunson ($5,400 FD / $5,400 DK)
Fading Luka Doncic? Don’t overlook Jalen Brunson who runs the second unit in a game where the Dallas Mavericks are heavily favored. On a productive run in his last four games, Brunson has averaged nearly 30 MPG with a 21.9% usage rate, producing a 18.8/4/3.5 scoring line off the bench while shooting at a 60.9% clip, including 50% from deep. On an NBA slate where the SG options are scarce, I’ll take my chances on him if I don’t end up playing Luka Doncic. GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Caris LeVert ($8,500 FD / $7,100 DK)
- Bradley Beal ($8,300 FD) – lock if active
- Dillon Brooks ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($8,800 FD / $9,200 DK)
He’ll probably be on a minutes limit in his first game back, but KD is simply too cheap to avoid on tonight’s NBA slate. Again, he will likely play 28-32 minutes – but the damage he can do in this matchup is simply undeniable. One of the best scorers of all time is averaging 29 PPG this season while shooting at a 52.4% clip, including 43.4% from deep. Don’t overthink this one. Cash + GPP Play
Jaylen Brown ($7,700 FD / $7,800 DK)
With Kemba Walker already ruled out for the Celtics tonight, we can go right back to the Tatum/Brown combination in our NBA lineups with confidence. Sure, the Knicks play at the slowest pace in the league, but when we’re talking about two players dominating all the usage on a single team, they’re both in play no matter who the opponent is. Enter JB, who has a 31% usage rate in 19 games without Kemba in the lineup this season, where he is averaging 25.1/5.3/3.7 on 48.4% shooting while taking 20 FGA per game. Cash + GPP Play
Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,600 FD / $7,200 DK)
Even with John Wall expected to play tonight, KPJ remains in play on FD because of position scarcity. The luxury of paying up for both SFs on tonight’s NBA slate is out of the question for me considering the priority at both PG and PF, so KPJ falls here by default. By no means is it the best play on the board, but if he’s our last man in, you can surely do worse than someone averaging over 30 MPG in 13 games for the Rockets this season, posting a 15.6/3.6/6.1 scoring line on 43.4% shooting. GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Anthony Edwards ($7,400 FD / $7,700 DK)
- Bogdan Bogdanovic ($7,200 FD / $6,500 DK)
- Naji Marshall ($4,500 FD / $3,900 DK)
Power Forwards
Zion Williamson ($9,700 FD / $9,000 DK)
On the second half of a back-to-back, monitor the Pelicans injury report. If he’s in, this is a smash spot versus a Brooklyn interior that cannot guard the paint whatsoever. Top play at the position for tonight’s NBA slate. GPP Play
Julius Randle ($9,400 FD / $9,900 DK)
Fresh off a 19/15/12 triple-double for the Knicks, there is nothing Julius Randle hasn’t done for the city of NY this season. Sporting a 32.2% usage rate in his last five games, Randle’s 22/10.2/7 scoring line on 42.4% shooting shows just how effective he is in an offensive role this season. There is nobody that’s a lock to play as many minutes as Randle does on a nightly basis, making him firmly in play every NBA slate. Cash + GPP Play
Jayson Tatum ($8,800 FD / $9,100 DK)
Entering tonight’s tilt versus the Knicks, Jayson Tatum has a 7-game 20+ point streak and will be in good shape to keep it rolling with the absence of Kemba Walker. Sporting a 30.5% usage rate in his last seven, Tatum’s 26.9/7.1/3.7 scoring line has Boston back in the midst of the Eastern Conference as they look to make their playoff push. Playing over 35 MPG in games where Walker has been out of the lineup this season, Tatum’s 26.9/6.6/4.3 scoring line is hard enough to ignore, let alone his 22 FGA per game. Cash + GPP Play
Also Consider:
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $8,900 DK)
- Aleksej Pokusevski ($5,500 FD / $5,600 DK)
- Davis Bertans ($3,700 FD / $4,300 DK)
Centers
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($11,400 FD / $10,700 DK)
- Nikola Jokic ($10,200 FD / $10,600 DK)
- Wendall Carter Jr. ($7,300 FD / $6,000 DK)
- Moses Brown ($6,200 FD / $6,700 DK)
- Kelly Olynyk ($5,600 FD / $5,900 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
