Christopher Day 
Tonight’s NBA slate is already filled with intrigue as the Clippers are on the second half of a back-to-back, meaning the statuses of Paul George and Kawhi Leonard are in question, in addition to Serge Ibaka already being ruled out, as they take on Luka Doncic and the Mavericks. Injuries have riddled the Knicks’ backcourt, plenty of star power between Giannis, Joker, and Luka, and the value to go with it! It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($10,200 FD / $10,600 DK)
Primary ball handlers versus LA? One of the best players in NBA DFS? Check and check. Luka Doncic comes into this one as one of, if not the player with the highest upside, and there is no chance I’m passing up this spot for him. On a team featuring Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram, it was Lonzo Ball that did all the damage to the Clippers less than 24 hours ago, dropping 20/8/5. I’ve been attacking this spot all season long, and with a 31.7% usage rate in two games since returning from the ASG break, where he is averaging 21.5/8.5/12 on 44.4% shooting, my lineups begin with the face of the Mavericks franchise tonight.
Chris Paul ($6,800 FD / $7,800 DK)
I could have easily slotted in Russell Westbrook or Steph Curry in here, but Chris Paul is simply too cheap today, especially on FD. While the shooting efficiency has been subpar since returning from the NBA ASG, this is normal for almost every player due to the week-long absence from regular play, and now with two games under his belt, he’s set for a ceiling game in a matchup versus Ja Morant, who is one of my favorite defenders to pick on. Averaging nearly three turnovers per game, Ja will be in tough versus the Point God, who sits fifth in the league in assists per game with 8.8.
Also Consider:
- Malcolm Brogdon ($6,700 FD / $7,400 DK)
- Reggie Jackson ($4,600 FD / $5,200 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($9,800 FD / $9,400 DK)
Right back to the well. You’re going to tell me: “Ghost, he’s been terrible the past two games!” And that is exactly why nobody will play him. After finally getting a rest game the other day, Beal is ready to go against Giannis and the Bucks tonight, who struggle mightily versus the 3-point shot: the Bucks sit 26th in the NBA in points allowed per game from behind the arc, including having opponents shooting over 37% from deep. By no means is Bradley Beal a lethal 3-point shooter; he only takes seven three-pointers per game, but the fact that he can score in every other which way he wants to will keep Milwaukee defenders on ice, and there’s no stopping the league’s scoring leader tonight.
Immanuel Quickley ($4,600 FD / $5,600 DK)
I’m cheating my system of avoiding the sub 5k price range on FD today because of how much interest I have in IQ tonight. With Elfrid Payton doubtful to play and Derrick Rose already ruled out, it is Quickley that will see 25+ minutes against Brooklyn’s defense, or rather, the lack thereof. With a 1.09 FPPM and assuming the role of primary ball handler over Frank Ntilikina and his lackluster offensive skills, give us a ton of minutes of IQ and enjoy the show.
Also Consider:
- Donte DiVincenzo ($4,500 FD / $5,100 DK)
- Caris LeVert ($4,100 FD)
Small Forwards
Khris Middleton ($7,400 FD / $8,100 DK)
By no means is he the priority when looking at the Bucks rotation, for obvious reasons, but slotting the Robin to Giannis’ Batman in our NBA lineups is never a bad option if not playing the latter. Averaging just over 20 PPG on the season, Middleton is looking to be apart of the exclusive 50/40/90 club this season, and while his volume limits his upside, his efficiency is second-to-none in this price range at a thin SF position.
RJ Barrett ($5,700 FD / $6,200 DK)
Thibs gonna Thibs – ride or die with some New York Knicks in your lineups tonight, folks. In two games since the NBA ASG, RJ Barrett has been thriving offensively and is coming off a career-high 32 points; his 29.2% usage rate inspires confidence in his game, where he is also averaging 27/5/2.5 on 58.3% shooting, including 50% from behind the arc. In a matchup versus Brooklyn’s atrocious defense, the trio of Quickley/Barrett/Randle intrigues me immensely.
Also Consider:
- Michael Porter Jr. ($6,700 FD / $6,800 DK)
- Josh Richardson ($5,100 FD / $5,400 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,100 FD / $11,100 DK)
Washington managed to not only stay in the game versus the Bucks just a few days ago, they almost won. Without Bradley Beal. Who is back in the lineup tonight? Do the math people – Giannis dropped a 70-fantasy-point triple-double in that one and there is no stopping his push for MVP in the latter stages of the NBA season.
Julius Randle ($9,200 FD / $9,800 DK)
The third piece of our Knicks trio is the one with the highest ceiling of them all. The Knicks can be up by 20, down by 20, in a 150-point game or a 240-point game, Julius Randle simply does not leave the court. Sporting a 27.5% usage rate on the season with 1.275 FPPM, Randle will be relied upon heavily to dominate the interior on both ends of the floor tonight. He plays over 36 minutes per game, is averaging a cool 22.9/11/5.7 on 48% shooting, and is fresh off a 26/12/12 tripe-double versus OKC.
Others to Consider:
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,100 FD / $9,600 DK)
- Jerami Grant ($7,300 FD / $7,500 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Jokic ($11,000 FD / $10,700 DK)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($7,400 FD / $7,600 DK)
Also Consider:
- Mason Plumlee ($6,100 FD / $6,100 DK)
- James Wiseman ($3,900 FD)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
