Christopher Day 
Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems covered one of my favorite NBA slates of the season; the Toronto Raptors are down to an 8-man rotation after getting hit with the COVID bug, James Harden makes his return to Houston, John Wall’s comments about Harden wanting out are top of mind, Dame versus Steph out in Portland, there’s a certain rookie battle out in Minnesota between Anthony Edwards and LaMelo Ball, and two former ROY candidates in Donovan Mitchell and Ben Simmons face off in Philadelphia after Mitchell’s hoodie stunt is still getting media attention to this day. Let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($10,100 FD / $10,600 DK)
Dame Time on his home court versus familiar foe, Steph Curry? Yes, please. Lillard has been on a tear since backcourt partner CJ McCollum went down with injury, and while the latter was having a stellar campaign, maybe his injury is what Dame needed to get things going; and man, has he done exactly that. 23 or more points in eight straight games for the face of the Trail Blazers franchise, Dame has a 36.9% usage rate during that span, averaging 31.3/4.3/10.8 on 44.3% shooting. His scoring is through the roof, he’s tallying up nearly 11 assists per game, and shooting the ball 24 times per game and now finds himself facing a Warriors defense that ranks second in the NBA in pace of play and bottom 10 in 3PM and 3PA.
Steph Curry ($9,900 FD / $9,900 DK)
On the flipside of the same game, if you’re playing Dame, you need to highly consider pairing him with Curry. Sporting a 32.3% usage rate on the season, Curry is approaching the 30 PPG clip, scoring at will with 29.5 PPG thus far to go along with 5.4 RPG and 6.4 APG. After a slow start to the season, his volume has increased drastically, as has his efficiency, making him an elite play on this NBA in one of the fastest games on the slate.
Also Consider:
- Kyle Lowry ($8,200 FD / $8,100 DK)
- LaMelo Ball ($8,600 FD / $9,200 DK)
- John Wall ($8,600 FD / $8,300 DK)
- De’Aaron Fox ($8,000 FD / $9,000 DK)
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
James Harden makes his return to Houston. Play him. That is all.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200 FD / $8,800 DK)
Strictly a FD play to those not considering one of the options below, including punting SG2 with a chalky Terence Davis or THT, SGA finds himself in an underrated spot on tonight’s NBA slate. Facing a Mavericks team that may be without Luka Doncic tonight, SGA will have ample opportunity to strike on the offensive end at sub 5% ownership; Dallas ranks 27th in defensive efficiency and seemingly find themselves in close games even against the weakest of opponents.
Also Consider:
- Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,500 DK)
- Anthony Edwards ($6,400 FD / $6,900 DK)
- Terence Davis ($3,500 FD / $3,400 DK)
Small Forwards
Normal Powell ($6,800 FD / $6,700 DK)
Stormin’ Norman will have all the scoring opportunity possible in a game like this. Not only are the Raptors down to 8 players in a thin rotation, but they’re missing key offensive components in Fred VanVleet, OG Anunoby, and Pascal Siakam, leaving the majority of the workload to Powell and Lowry. Already sporting a 23.7% usage rate when starting this season, there is no data to indicate how much it will increase with all three of FVV, OG, and Siakam off the floor, but it will surely be near 30%, leading to more than enough opportunity to pay off his price tag versus the worst team in the Eastern Conference.
Derrick Jones Jr. ($5,100 FD / $5,400 DK)
Rather than just indicating you all to punt SF2 on FD today, which is surely the plan to jam in other studs at premium positions, DJJ is someone that I chose to write up because of his playing style in the game environment he finds himself in. The usage rate is low at 11.9% with Dame, Trent, and Kanter all taking shots before he will, but what he does excel in is fast-paced games; the Warriors play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA and DJJ is someone that has high enough upside in the steals and blocks categories to warrant consideration on FD, where they are three points apiece.
Also Consider:
- Sadiq Bey ($5,100 FD / $5,700 DK)
- Malik Monk ($4,900 FD / $5,700 DK)
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,700 DK)
Rocking a 25% usage rate for the Pacers this season, I’m thrilled to see Sabonis get the nod to the NBA ASG. He logs heavy minutes on a nightly basis and is now up to 36.4 MPG, where he’s averaging 21.2/11.3/5.9 on 52.9% shooting. The price is steep, but Jarrett Allen’s defense is non-existent, and with how bad PF is on DK seeing as Claxton, Boucher, and others are only center eligible, he may be in my main lineup yet again.
Draymond Green ($7,600 FD / $7,400 DK)
After only logging 13 minutes in a blowout loss to the Lakers a few nights ago, Draymond will be fresh and ready to go here versus a vulnerable Portland defense. Aside from last game due to blowout, Green has been playing at an elite level for the Warriors, nearing a triple-double every night and leading the charge on defense, as usual. In a game where he can not only dominate Enes Kanter on the defensive side of the ball, but also rack up assists in an up-tempo game and crash the glass, his upside is ridiculously high in this spot.
Others to Consider:
- Chris Boucher ($6,600 FD / $6,400 DK)
- Nicolas Claxton ($4,100 FD / $3,300 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,300 DK)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700 FD / $10,000 DK)
Also Consider:
- Montrezl Harrell ($6,400 FD / $5,500 DK)
- Justin Patton ($3,800 FD / $4,000 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
After multiple requests, I will also be adding NBA player props to the end of the article. These props will be the ones I am eyeing early on in the day, so please look for an update in Discord and on the livestream at 5:45pm EST.
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander OVER 33.5 PRA
- Draymond Green OVER 7.5 rebounds
- Draymond Green OVER 8.5 assists
- Kyle Lowry over 35.5 PRA
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
