Christopher Day 
Crushed another NBA slate yesterday with the field flocking to new news rather than taking advantage of an 8-man rotation in Charlotte – perks of the Win Daily discord chat! With today’s slate comes more intrigue in the form of a thin San Antonio rotation and plenty of good spots for bonified superstars. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – see you at the top.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($10,100 FD / $10,400 DK)
Coming into this one with seven straight games of 24 or more points, Dame gets a soft matchup versus LaMelo Ball and the Hornets tonight. Sporting a ridiculous 37.5% usage rate over his last seven, Dame has averaged 32.4/4.3/10.9 on 45% shooting during this span, including 24.4 FGA per game and 12.7 3PA per game. Facing a Hornets team that allows the second-most three-pointers per game in the NBA at 15.1, tap your wrist every time he hits a 3 tonight because it’s Dame Time.
Dejounte Murray ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)
With the majority of the Spurs team still in COVID protocol, Dejounte Murray instantly becomes one of my favorite plays on the board. I mean, even if they were all in, I’d still play him against Brooklyn: Murray comes into this one with a 28% usage rate over his last three games, seeing 33.7 MPG and put up a 23.7/9/6.3 scoring line on 50% shooting. While DeRozan’s presence in the lineup with keep his ownership down, DDR will see more minutes at the ‘4’ and leave all the backcourt touches to Murray in a pace up spot versus one of the NBA’s worst defenses.
Also Consider:
- Kyrie Irving ($9,000 FD / $9,100 DK)
- LaMelo Ball ($7,900 FD / $8,700 DK)
Shooting Guards
Donovan Mitchell ($8,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
Even in the event that Mike Conley makes his return to the Jazz lineup tonight, Donovan Mitchell is on my radar for NBA GPPs. Brian has been attacking the Pelicans backcourt for quite some time now, and with Mitchell in the fold, there is no reason not to continue doing so; the Pelicans have been recently torched by Dejounte Murray, Saben Lee, Chris Paul, and Damian Lillard, and with Mitchell coming off back-to-back 30-point performances, he’ll dominate this one for another Jazz W.
Collin Sexton ($7,100 FD / $7,500 DK)
While Victor Oladipo certainly warrants the SG2 tag on today’s NBA slate, we’re going on the flipside of the same game with a player who will come at a tenth of the ownership in Collin Sexton. Coming into this one with eight straight games of 20 or more raw points, Sexton has been logging heavy minutes on a nightly basis for the Cavaliers. Sporting a 27.6% usage rate across 39.2 MPG in his last eight, Sexton has been a scoring machine, averaging 25 PPG on 47.7% shooting, including 19.1 FGA per game. With Dipo trying to show out as he looks to increase his trade value, he’ll have the ball in hands aplenty, and while this will result in offensive production, it will also result in a faster pace and more steals for Sexton, where he’ll score in transition all night long.
Also Consider:
- Victor Oladipo ($7,600 FD / $7,700 DK)
- Terry Rozier ($6,800 FD / $8,000 DK)
Small Forwards
This position is purely punt for me – no one above $5,000 on FD stands out to me, and we need to roster two SFs. You know the drill – I don’t write up value plays because I use the model to determine which one will work best for my lineup construction. Unless paying up for Brandon Ingram ($7,800 FD / $8,400 DK) against one of the best defensive units in the NBA or Evan Fournier ($6,800 FD / $6,700 DK) at a ridiculous price, there is no target here above $5,000 that will capture enough upside to win a tournament, including a ridiculously high-owned Michael Porter Jr. ($6,500 FD / $7,000 DK).
Power Forwards
PJ Washington ($6,200 FD / $6,200 DK)
One of two PFs I never thought I would write up, PJ Washington suddenly becomes viable on an NBA slate like yesterday’s and again tonight’s not only because the Hornets are down to a thin rotation, but because they’re all in on a small-ball lineup. While Cody Zeller or Bismack Biyombo have been getting the start, the Hornets quickly shift Washington to the ‘5’ with Hayward or Bridges (depending on if Hayward is active or not) at the ‘4’ with a trio of guards in LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Devonte’ Graham (if active) or Malik Monk. Coming off a 42/9/2/2/2 game versus Sacramento less than 24 hours ago, we’ll have to monitor his ownership and the health of Zeller/Hayward, but attacking a Portland interior defense that allows over 55 FPPG to opposing big men is certainly a spot I’m intrigued by.
LaMarcus Aldridge ($5,600 FD / $6,200 DK)
PFs I never thought I’d write up: Part 2/2. While his price is too high on DK for me, the $5,600 tag on FD is too cheap for as reliable a piece that LMA is. Let us not forget that this is the same man that was 6th in scoring of the 2010s decade – 6th, people. Give me 20-25 minutes of LMA in an 8-man rotation against a Brooklyn Nets interior that ranks last in the NBA since the acquisition of James Harden and we’re good to go here. He’s way past his prime, but LMA is still rocking a 22.7% usage rate across 26.5 MPG, scoring 14.3 PPG on 46.9% shooting.
Others to Consider:
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $10,100 DK)
- Thad Young ($6,600 FD / $6,100 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Jokic ($11,000 FD / $10,800 DK)
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,800 FD / $10,200 DK)
Also Consider:
- Joel Embiid ($10,800 FD / $10,600 DK)
- Jarrett Allen ($7,900 FD / $8,500 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
