Christopher Day 
Another successful day yesterday from the team and we’re looking to keep it rolling with Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems! Similarly to last night’s NBA slate, we have a plethora of studs in good spots with value already opening up at the time of writing, with more to come – guys will be high priced, but if you use the projection model to round out your lineup, you’ll be good to go. Let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($10,000 FD / $10,500 DK)
The greatest shooter of all time is on one of those runs that can be scary to fade in NBA DFS. In his past nine games, Curry has dropped 27 or more points in every one, averaging 35.3/5/5.6 across 33.7 MPG during the stretch. Eclipsing a raw point per minute is simply outrageous, but what is even more remarkable is that Curry is shooting 58.9% from the field and 51.4% from deep in his past nine, rocking a 33.3% usage rate and shooting the ball over 20 times per game, including 12 from behind the arc.
Damian Lillard ($9,500 FD / $10,300 DK)
The price is high on DK but it’s well worth it. Dame has now topped 30 or more raw points in six of his past seven, where his 35.4% usage rate has powered him to a 30.3/3.7/8 scoring line on 42.5% shooting. Averaging over 11 three-point attempts during the same stretch, Dame is also getting to the free throw line over eight times per game; with the Pelicans ranking 28th and 30th in the NBA in 3PA allowed per game and APG allowed in their past 10 games, it’s Dame Time.
Also Consider:
- Malcolm Brogdon ($8,000 FD / $7,700 DK)
- Jamal Murray ($6,500 FD / $7,100 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($9,900 FD / $9,800 DK)
*Searches NBA player who is the most underappreciated this season* DING DING DING – we have a winner: Mr. Bradley Beal! He leads the league in usage rate at 36.3%, leads the league in scoring at 33.1 PPG, he’s taking over 24 shots per game and shooting 47.6% from the field. Now facing a Denver defense that has regressed tremendously since losing Mason Plumlee and Jerami Grant in the offseason, combined with key defenders Gary Harris and Will Barton being ruled out and the rest of the team being on the second half of a back-to-back, Beal will have a field day tonight – and we’re here for it.
Donovan Mitchell ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)
I can’t get to the mid range today on DK with the amount of value available to us already combined with the star power on this slate, but Donovan Mitchell makes a case for us to reconsider our NBA lineup construction. I like this play much more should Mike Conley be ruled out, as the Clippers cannot defend primary ball handlers whatsoever. Mitchell is sporting a 33.8% usage rate since Conley has been out, which has led to a stellar 28.2/4.5/6.7 scoring line on 42.3% shooting, including an uptick to nearly 22 FGA per game.
Also Consider:
- Anthony Edwards ($6,000 FD / $6,000 DK)
- Jordan Clarkson ($5,900 FD / $6,500 DK)
Small Forwards
Jimmy Butler ($9,400 FD / $8,800 DK)
Someone who is going to get overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate, Butler will have to do everything in his power to get Miami back into the Eastern Conference playoff picture. They are not far out, sitting only 1.5 games back of Charlotte for the ‘8’ seed, but every game counts. Aside from a dud against a stingy Utah defense a few days ago, Butler has essentially tripled-doubled every game since returning from COVID, averaging 22.6/8.7/8.3 on 44.1% usage over his past nine. In an elite game environment against Golden State, this game can be the one we target for large field tournaments in the form of a Butler-Curry-Draymond stack.
Michael Porter Jr. ($5,500 FD / $6,200 DK)
After a dud yesterday at massive ownership, you know he’s going to drop a 50-point triple-double here tonight – that’s just the way NBA DFS works. After being a rebounding machine in the first quarter yesterday, MPJ essentially faded off the face off the Earth, shooting 0-for-8 from the field and 0-for-5 from deep – do you really think this is possible again? Maybe, but even if you tell me that if he hits 60% of his shots – which would be absurd – it would have only added 10 points to his total and he still doesn’t hit value, right? Wrong. If you know MPJ at all and his style of play, when his shot is dropping, he’ll have the second-most volume on this team behind only Jokic. Giddy up.
Also Consider:
- Punts
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($9,700 FD / $9,700 DK)
I think it’s sad to say that this is the first NBA slate that I can possibly not play Sabonis; not because he isn’t an elite play, rather I prefer other studs at this price. Nonetheless, he is in a good spot versus a Minnesota interior that simply cannot defend the paint, the perimeter, or anything at all, really. The T-Wolves rank last in the NBA against big men, allowing a league-high 61 FPPG, and will be in touch versus a Brogdon/Sabonis pick ‘n roll combo tonight.
Jayson Tatum ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
I hesitated between Tatum and Draymond Green here, and both make for great plays on tonight’s NBA slate, but I’ll give the edge to Tatum in a better game environment. If you noticed the Celtics rotation yesterday, it was exactly what we wrote up – he comes out at the 6-minute mark, has the floor to himself until the middle of the second quarter, then comes off in favor of Kemba Walker. While this resulted in an impressive 21/6/8 outing, which was also indicative of the increase in assists, as described in yesterday’s article, Tatum only shot 6-for-18 from the field and 1-for-8 from deep. With a lackluster Atlanta defense on tap tonight, expect Tatum to be more aggressive and thrive in this spot.
Others to Consider:
- Zion Williamson ($8,300 FD / $8,200 DK)
- Draymond Green ($7,600 FD / $6,800 DK)
Centers
- Nikola Jokic ($10,500 FD / $11,000 DK)
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,700 FD / $10,100 DK)
Also Consider:
- Clint Capela ($8,000 FD / $7,500 DK)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($7,800 FD / $7,300 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
