Christopher Day 
Weekends are fun, but nothing beats Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems. We have a great NBA slate on tap tonight that includes some clear paths to both value and star power, but with an abundance of options this early in the day, and more to come, we’ll have to get it just right. Let’s get to it!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Kyrie Irving ($9,600 FD / $9,000 DK)
With Kevin Durant out for the Nets tonight, both Kyrie Irving and James Harden become elite NBA DFS options. Despite Kyrie publicly saying that he has relinquished the duty of primary ball handler to James Harden, the former has a 5% edge in usage rate over the latter; Kyrie boasts a 32.5% clip while Harden sits at 27.4%. With how well Harden has been moving the ball since his arrival in Brooklyn, where he averages 11.6 APG, Kyrie will be the primary scorer tonight in a fast-paced tilt versus De’Aaron Fox and the Kings.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,700 FD / $8,800 DK)
On the flipside of tonight’s most anticipated game is none other than De’Aaron Fox. In a huge pace up spot where both Brooklyn and Sacramento rank in the Top 10 in pace, Fox will be tasked with carrying the offense where the number of expected possessions will be through the roof. With a 30.7% usage rate and 23 or more points in his past eight games for the Kings, he will be a key part of my NBA lineups tonight.
Also Consider:
- John Wall ($7,700 FD / $7,500 DK)
- Malcolm Brogdon ($7,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($10,600 FD / $10,700 DK)
We already mentioned how Kyrie will be the primary scorer for Brooklyn tonight, but there is no denying that Harden can break tonight’s NBA slate. The usage is there for him to carry the ball for 30+ minutes, even with Kyrie stealing some possessions, and with how poorly Brooklyn has been rebounding, Harden averages over 8 RPG in addition to his 11.6 APG since arriving to the Nets. In a fast-paced game, look for Harden to push the transition game and contribute on a ton of buckets.
Bradley Beal ($9,800 FD / $8,900 DK)
If you don’t play Beal on DK tonight, I can’t trust you. This price is outrageously low should Westbrook be in, let alone if he gets ruled out on the second half of a back-to-back as anticipated. I can’t throw a ton of statistics at you, but all you need to know is that he leads the NBA in points and usage rate… with Westbrook in. Lock city.
Also Consider:
- Collin Sexton ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)
- Jordan Clarkson ($5,500 FD / $5,900 DK)
Small Forwards
Jimmy Butler ($8,900 FD / $8,200 DK)
I’m largely punting small forward to prioritize other studs at premier positions, but the one player I can make a case for is Jimmy Butler. Largely overlooked on tonight’s NBA slate, he’s cheap on both sites and fits the slight price increase on FD due to differential in scoring systems. Even with last game’s dud due to Utah’s stellar defense, Butler is averaging 21.6/8.5/8.1 in his past eight games since coming back from COVID, including sporting a 27.6% usage rate and shooting nearly 12 FTA per game.
On DK, there are players who are multi-position eligible with cheap salaries we look target here – check the projection model. On FD, the goal here is to punt SF, meaning you use the cheaper options listed below to afford some of the players we listed at the PG and SG positions. As such, options are:
- Joe Harris ($4,900 FD)
- Joe Ingles ($4,900 FD)
- Justin Holiday ($4,800 FD)
- Duncan Robinson ($4,100 FD)
- Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot ($3,800 FD / $3,600 DK)
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $9,100 DK)
Lock city on DK – try to jam him in on FD. That seems to be my approach with Sabonis on virtually every NBA slate, and tonight is no different. Seeing a Chicago frontcourt that gets torched on a nightly basis, Sabonis will have his way with whomever starts for Chicago in this one; he dropped a cool 22/11/10 triple-double last time out in 34 minutes, and I expect more of the same here tonight.
Julius Randle ($8,600 FD / $8,700 DK)
Not sure if the sites update their prices bi-weekly at this point but I’ll gladly take advantage of an underpriced Julius Randle yet again. With the plethora of guards that the Knicks now have at their disposal, both Randle and Nerlens Noel will see all the minutes they can handle on a nightly basis, and that means great things tonight for the former, who will be drawing coverage – or lack thereof – from John Collins. A lock for a double-double, Randle will be a perfect fit in a game environment where the Hawks look to push the pace.
Others to Consider:
- Jarrett Allen ($6,900 FD / $6,700 DK)
- Nerlens Noel ($4,800 FD / $4,400 DK)
Centers
- Clint Capela ($7,800 FD / $7,400 DK)
- Kelly Olynyk ($5,100 FD / $5,100 DK)
- Richaun Holmes ($6,400 FD / $6,000 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
