Christopher Day 
Sunday’s edition of the Gems will see a ton of high-priced players due to the amount of value we already have available to us on tonight’s NBA slate, with more to come, so make sure you’re reaching for ceiling plays when pairing them with high volume fill-in starters for teams such as Minnesota, OKC, and Orlando.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,300 FD / $11,100 DK)
No reason not to play Doncic in such an elite game environment considering the amount of value that’s already available to us at the time of writing. Picking up where he left off in a breakout campaign last season, Doncic’s 35.9% usage rate in second in the NBA behind only Bradley Beal, and it shows – averaging 28.5/8.7/9.4 across 35.3 MPG, Doncic is the entire Mavericks offense when Porzingis is having off nights, which seem to be more often than not as of late, and gets the 28th ranked Portland defense tonight.
Damian Lillard ($9,500 FD / $9,600 DK)
On the flipside of the same game as Doncic, we have Damian Lillard, who remains without backcourt partner CJ McCollum. Now sporting a 31.2% usage rate on the season thanks to a 33.8% clip when McCollum is out, Dame averages over 30 PPG and 20.5 FGA per game with his backcourt partner missing in action. The volume will be there, and while Portland’s 28th ranked defense is atrocious, it’s not like Dallas’ 27th ranked defense is all that much better.
Also Consider:
- LaMelo Ball ($7,800 FD)
- Dejounte Murray ($7,000 DK)
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker ($7,800 FD / $8,200 DK)
Finally turning the corner is one of my favorite players in the NBA and a preseason favorite to cement himself in the league. After a rocky start to the 2021 campaign, Devin Booker is sporting a ridiculous 37.3% usage rate in his past three games, where he is also averaging 34 PPG in 36 MPG. Scoring a point per minute is already an impressive feat, but his run has also led to a five-game winning streak for the Suns, and tonight’s game versus a depleted Orlando team gives Book another chance to keep it rolling.
Collin Sexton ($6,300 FD / $6,700 DK)
I wrote him up the last time the Cavaliers faced off against the Clippers and Collin Sexton did not disappoint: dropping a cool 27 points on one of the league’s best teams is always considered a good night for one of the young Cavs’ bright spots, and last game versus LA was an indication of what he will do again tonight. Playing just over 38 minutes in that contest, Sexton shot the ball 21 times and 52.4% from the field, and there’s no reason to believe he can’t do so again with how much LA struggles versus primary ball handlers.
Also Consider:
- Gary Trent ($5,800 FD / $5,800 DK)
- Terrence Ross ($5,200 FD / $6,100 DK)
Small Forwards
Pascal Siakam ($8,900 FD / $7,900 DK)
While Siakam is by no means the sexiest of names to pay up for on tonight’s NBA slate, he is a good one, nonetheless. With KAT back in the lineup for the T-Wolves, their interior defense actually gets worse than with Naz Reid starting, whereby Minnesota ranks 28th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint with 51.2 per game. Although we may see OG Anunoby returning for the Raptors tonight, he will likely be on a minutes restriction, and Siakam will not lose touches in the paint to Aron Baynes – Siakam only needs little time to inflict damage on this Minnesota defense, and there’s nobody there to stop him on the inside.
Kenrich Williams ($5,500 FD / $5,400 DK)
On such a large NBA slate, never did I think I’d be writing up Kenrich Williams – but here we are. One of the few OKC players that has not been priced out of appropriate range, Williams will likely draw another start at PG with SGA, George Hill, and Theo Maledon all ruled out for tonight’s contest versus Phoenix. In 4 starts this season, Williams has an abysmal 15% usage rate, but that has not stopped his production whatsoever: he’s averaging 12.5/7.5/3.3 on 60.5% shooting during this span where OKC is riddled with injuries, and while the volume isn’t comparable to others in this price range, nobody is a safer lock for 35+ minutes.
Others to Consider:
- Kawhi Leonard ($10,200 FD / $9,700 DK)
- Malik Beasley ($7,300 FD / $7,300 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $10,900 DK)
Although the Bucks are heavily favored in tonight’s tilt versus a depleted, rebuilding OKC team, I think they keep it closer than most anticipate; OKC just brought LA to the brink in two straight contests, and there’s no reason to believe why they can’t do the same with Milwaukee. Enter Giannis, who will be attacking the likes of Al Horford and Darius Bazley in the paint all night long, and we have a slate-breaking performance from the back-to-back NBA MVP.
Kristaps Porzingis ($8,000 FD / $8,500 DK)
This is the riskiest play of all the Gems for tonight’s NBA slate, but my intrigue is high for Porzingis because of the field’s caution with one of the league’s most talented stretch-4s. Facing a terrible defender in Enes Kanter will surely give Porzingis ample opportunity to crush both inside the paint and on the perimeter, while the game environment is second to none on the slate. Whether we get 36 points and 7 rebounds in 32 minutes out of him like we saw last game versus New Orleans, or 15 points and 4 rebounds in 19 minutes versus the Hawks the game prior, is yet to be seen, but the risk/reward is certainly there. I may not land here, but at the time of writing, I’d be lying if I said he doesn’t intrigue me tonight.
Others to Consider:
- Value Plays –> Punt PF
Centers
Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $9,800 DK)
Similarly to how I preach that Domantas Sabonis is criminally underappreciated in the NBA community, Vuc is right there with him. Sporting a 28.5% usage rate on the season, Vuc has seen a notable uptick in the past few games with the number of injuries his team is dealing with, and rightfully so; on 30.8% usage, Vuc has averaged just over 27 PPG and 13.7 RPG in his past seven, including three of seven resulting in 60 DKFP or more, one being a 77.8 DKFP performance. The price is creeping up, but there’s no reason for him to be underpriced by nearly $1,000, nonetheless.
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,500 FD / $9,400 DK)
I don’t want to put KAT in the same category as Kristaps Porzingis in terms of risk versus reward, but it’s close. While he has been essentially unowned since returning from his battle with COVID, Towns has seen 31 and 32 minutes in his past two, respectively, resulting in 21.5 PPG to go along with 9 RPG. Versus a weak Raptors interior defense, Towns can break tonight’s NBA slate at such low ownership – no D’Angelo Russell will result in more touches, and this price point is right where we want him.
Also Consider:
- Nikola Jokic ($10,600 FD / $10,700 DK)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($7,100 FD / $7,400 DK)
- Enes Kanter ($6,600 FD / $7,200 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
