Christopher Day 
This is probably one of my favorite NBA slates to date and it’s only fitting that it coincides with Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems. I’ve changed it up a bit today since I have a much clearer outlook on my approach this early in the day, listing some core plays for both sites in bold. If you start there and use the model to round out the rest, you may or may not be able to figure out what my main lineups will look like as we approach lock. Enjoy!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($9,700 FD / $8,400 DK)
I almost spat out my orange juice when I wrote up this price tag right before publishing this. Sporting a 31% usage rate through 14 games in his Wizards tenure, Westbrook is averaging a near triple-double on the season to the tune of 19.4/9.2/9. The efficiency has been a career-low, as he’s only shooting 41.3% from the field and 33.9% from behind the arc, but the sheer volume that both he and Bradley Beal carry on a nightly basis is second to none; the 17.3 FGA per game make a 20-10-10 stat line more than plausible tonight against a lackluster Toronto interior defense. DK Core Play.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,200 FD / $7,400 DK)
It was difficult to choose a single point guard to slot in here as the FD Core Play, but the former 2nd round pick and NBA Rookie of the Year out of UVA gets the nod. The usage rate has now increased just above 26% and Brogdon is averaging a cool 21.7/4/6.7 across 35.8 MPG. Not only is he going to be relied upon to shut down James Harden tonight, but he’s also in a great offensive spot against Brooklyn, who has allowed opposing point guards to allow the following stat lines in their past 6 games:
- Wright: 22/4/9
- Simmons: 16/12/8
- Lowry: 30/5/7
- Westbrook: 41/10/8
- Maledon: 24/3/3
- Young: 28/3/14
Player Pool:
- Luka Doncic ($10,900 FD / $10,800 DK)
- Trae Young ($10,100 FD / $9,900 DK)
- LaMelo Ball ($8,200 FD / $8,500 DK)
- Kyle Lowry ($7,600 FD / $7,300 DK)
- Hamidou Diallo ($6,500 FD / $6,500 DK)
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($10,600 FD / $10,400 DK)
I don’t really need to provide analytics as to why you should be considering James Harden on tonight’s NBA slate. Kyrie is likely to sit and he’ll have the entire offense to himself, where he sports a usage rate north of 30% and 1.58 FPPM. Having dropped 60 or more DK points in 4 of the past 6, he can very well be the highest scorer on the entire slate.
Bradley Beal ($10,600 FD / $9,300 DK)
Alright so normally I would shy away from this price tag on FD when Russell Westbrook is playing, but with James Harden being the exact same price, Beal makes for a great pivot in GPPs. I want exposure to this Toronto/Washington game just as much, if not more than the Brooklyn/Indiana game, and it’s never a bad move to slot in the guy that leads the NBA in PPG.
Player Pool:
- Fred VanVleet ($9,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
- Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,100 DK)
- Collin Sexton ($6,600 FD / $7,000 DK)
Small Forwards
Pascal Siakam ($9,400 FD / $8,300 DK)
Even if OG Anunoby returns for the Raptors tonight, my interest in Siakam is the highest it’s been all season long. Sporting a 25% usage rate on the season, Siakam has seen an uptick down the stretch, leading to an increase in production in both scoring and on the glass. With Washington suffering on the inside since the loss of Thomas Bryant, Siakam now has an opponent ranking 27th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game. The last time he faced someone this bad in his favorable metrics was last game against Memphis – he dropped 65 DKFP. DK Core Play.
Khris Middleton ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)
With Jrue Holiday missing this game for the Bucks after being an unknown scratch the game prior, Middleton will be taking over many minutes as the primary ball handler. With a 34% assist rate with Holiday off the floor, not only will Middleton be relied upon to continue being the secondary scoring option to Giannis, but he is now the primary playmaker. FD Core Play.
Others to Consider:
- Kawhi Leonard ($9,700 FD / $9,400 DK)
- Gordon Hayward ($7,500 FD / $7,700 DK)
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($9,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
Ah, we meet again, my good friend. Sabonis szn is in full effect tonight, coming with heavy ownership, but if the sun is rising, and I’m breathing, I’m playing him. A core play on both sites for me tonight, Sabonis gets the juicy matchup against the Nets interior defense, or lack thereof. One of the easiest plays on the NBA slate, and I’m not even considering fading him.
Isaiah Roby ($5,000 FD / $3,700 DK)
He makes the article because he’s right at the 5k threshold on FD, but Isaiah Roby is a DK Core Play for me tonight. Sitting at a mere $3,700, Roby will be locked for 25+ minutes, as the Thunder will be without Muscala, Maledon, SGA, and George Hill. Expect to see more of Diallo and Dort in the backcourt, but the Thunder have not hesitated to run Bazley at point, leading to more minutes for Roby in a thin rotation. Projecting early on as the top value play in our projections, he’s a lock for me barring any news whereby Thunder players magically become active again.
Others to Consider:
- Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,900 FD / $10,600 DK)
- Zion Williamson ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)
- Darius Bazley ($6,500 FD / $6,100 DK)
Centers
Not playing any true centers on DK tonight with multi-position eligibility (MPE) or certain power forwards listed above, but for FD, the list goes as followed:
- Nikola Jokic ($11,100)
- Clint Capela ($8,300)
- Andre Drummond ($7,700)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($7,200)
- Myles Turner ($6,800)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
