Christopher Day 
Another NBA slate and Taco Tuesday’s edition of the Gems has you covered for the direction we are looking to take for our GPP lineups!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($9,800 FD / $10,000 DK)
There are a ton of good options where we can pay up and get a stud in our NBA lineups, but Dame needs to be in the conversation. Despite publicly admitting how exhausted he is and how his body is not 100%, the sheer volume that he carries on a nightly basis puts him in elite company. Coming off a game where he said he’ll “see how it goes”, where he then dropped 29/4/9 in 38 minutes, yeah, Lillard’s 33% usage rate without McCollum interests me at such low ownership.
Kyrie Irving ($9,500 FD / $9,300 DK)
The debate between which Brooklyn star to play when one of the three is out will forever be a challenge to our NBA lineups, but I side with Kyrie in this spot. The primary reason is less analytical and more so just from watching their offense: James Harden’s ability to play off the ball much better than Kyrie suits Steve Nash’s offense much better than Kyrie floating around the perimeter without the ball in his hands. Where Harden can drop shots from anywhere on the court, Kyrie does so to a much greater extent with the ball in his hands; he had a higher usage rate than Harden in games they have played together, and there’s no reason to believe this changes tonight.
Others to Consider:
- De’Aaron Fox ($8,600 FD / $8,800 DK)
- John Wall ($7,700 FD / $7,300 DK)
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,000 FD / $10,900 DK)
While I do prefer Kyrie in this spot as I had just explained in the paragraph above, there’s no denying Harden’s ceiling in this matchup versus Detroit. Averaging 11.8 APG and 8.1 RPG since his arrival to the Big Apple, you know you’re in good hands when you’re dependent on Harden’s scoring ability for him to break an NBA slate.
Josh Jackson ($5,500 FD / $5,700 DK)
This is where things get a bit spicy – his price is up there on DK, and even at the time of writing, I’m not sure I’ll get there. Nonetheless, Josh Jackson is someone of high interest to me on tonight’s NBA slate given what the Detroit rotation will look like. With Sadiq Bey likely drawing into the starting 5 should someone be ruled out, Jackson will be the lone scorer off the bench now that DRose is in NY. Even if all of Wright (Q), Ellington (Q), and Blake Griffin (Q) all play, Jackson is still the only secondary ball handler that the pistons have, and Wright cannot play a full 48 minutes here. He’s shown his upside on both ends of the floor, and this fast-paced game can be one where he’s relied upon heavily, especially if the Pistons counter the Nets’ small lineup with one of their own.
Others to Consider:
- Tyrese Haliburton ($6,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
- Tyler Herro ($5,800 FD / $6,700 DK)
Small Forwards
Brandon Ingram ($8,900 FD / $8,500 DK)
In pace-up spots is where Brandon Ingram truly thrives, and tonight he is in yet another versus the Houston Rockets. In the past 4, Ingram has had soft matchups on the wing, which we’ve pointed out and continuously took advantage. He’s taken 20 or more shots and scored 20 or more points in all four of those same games, and while he struggles versus Houston last time, it wasn’t because of a lack of volume, rather a lack of efficiency: Ingram shot 5-for-15 from the field despite getting good looks, and with a 56.1% shooting percentage in his past two, including 14 three-point attempts, he’s another low owned option for tonight’s NBA slate in a good game environment.
Jerami Grant ($7,800 FD / $7,000 DK)
I rarely write up players that are pulling this much ownership on an NBA slate because I tend to differ from the chalk where I can in NBA GPPs, but Jerami Grant is in too good of a spot not to play him. With DRose now in NY, Grant will see an uptick to his season average 26% usage rate, where he’s averaging 24 PPG on 44.7% shooting. The minutes will be there, the matchup is soft against Brooklyn, the pace in this one will be off the charts, and he’s underpriced. Play the man.
Others to Consider:
- Jimmy Butler ($8,700 FD / $8,300 DK)
Power Forwards
Julius Randle ($9,000 FD / $9,100 DK)
Rarely do we stack a team that plays at the slowest pace in the league, but when the Knicks constantly find themselves in competitive game environments, they catch my eye. Cue the interest in their main man, Julius Randle, who is having a career year to the tune of 22.7/11/6 across a whopping 36.8 MPG. With Mitchell Robinson battling foul trouble against a faster, more agile Bam Adebayo, Randle won’t leave the court tonight, whether he’s at the ‘4’ or the ‘5’.
Draymond Green ($7,500 FD / $6,900 DK)
No James Wiseman? We can confidently fire up Draymond Green yet again here. The price has increased, but not to the point where he’s overpriced on this NBA slate. Three straight games with double-digit assists, Dray at the ‘5’ allows for the Warriors to push the pace versus a weak San Antonio defense and allow Steph to create space for himself both on and off the ball.
Others to Consider:
- Bam Adebayo ($8,800 FD / $8,700 DK)
- Zion Williamson ($8,400 FD / $8,200 DK)
Centers
- GPP Pivot: Joel Embiid ($10,600 FD / $10,500 DK)
- Chalk: Nikola Vucevic ($8,700 FD / $8,900 DK)
Also Consider:
- Mason Plumlee ($5,700 FD / $5,800 DK)
- DeMarcus Cousins ($6,000 FD / $7,400 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
