Christopher Day 
With the NFL season now behind us, I’m looking forward to even better contest selection for NBA DFS. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems, so you know we’re going to crush it tonight – let’s get to it.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($10,100 FD / $10,300 DK)
There’s not much to be said about the 2-time MVP and 3-time NBA Champion other than he is back this season looking to carry the Warriors to a playoff berth without felling Splash Brother, Klay Thompson, in the lineup. Averaging a whopping 29.4 PPG in a mere 33.7 MPG, Curry is scoring in bunches and can get hot at any point in time. With the Spurs allowing over 50 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers, Curry will have ample time to shoot the ball tonight versus inferior defenders, just as he did a few weeks ago in the same matchup, where he dropped 26/11/7 in only 30 minutes on 58.8% shooting with 4 triples.
Terry Rozier ($6,100 FD / $6,300 DK)
Even if Devonte’ Graham comes back to the lineup tonight for the Hornets, I’m expecting him to be the odd man out of the backcourt trio of Rozier, Ball and himself. With Rozier showing that he can handle both on-ball and off-ball duties, he will surely be out there with both Ball and Graham, should the latter play, making him an attractive piece on tonight’s NBA slate given his price. With the Rockets unable to defend the guard positions, Rozier will be a rare mid-range play I’m interested tonight given his combination of floor and ceiling in a high-tempo matchup.
Others to Consider:
- Luka Doncic ($11,400 FD / $11,000 DK)
- Kyle Lowry ($8,300 FD / $7,800 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($10,800 FD / $9,000 DK)
Remember when Westbrook was out, and we automatically locked in Harden last season? The same thing applies here – locking in Bradley Beal. The price is a bit much on FD, but the Wizards and Bulls will do battle in a game environment that can not get much better considering there will be absolutely zero defense played in a game that features two of the league’s three fastest teams. Pacing the NBA with 33.2 PPG, where nobody else has even 30 PPG, Beal has a 37.6% usage rate without Westbrook in the lineup, where he averages 34.6/5.6/6.6 on 26.2 FGA per game.
Zach Lavine ($8,800 FD / $8,900 DK)
Hopefully you didn’t just skim to Beal blurb to understand what kind of game environment Zach Lavine is in on tonight’s NBA slate. Rocking a 36.4% usage rate and over 1.5 FPPM with the injuries that the Bulls roster are nursing, there’s no reason to believe that Lavine can’t duplicate his performance from a few days ago against Orlando, where he dropped 39 points on 25 shot attempts.
Others to Consider:
- Fred VanVleet ($9,200 FD / $8,500 DK)
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,400 FD / $8,000 DK)
Small Forwards
Pascal Siakam ($9,300 FD / $7,900 DK)
The two Raptors I have interest in are priced up on FD, but it goes without saying that we must consider them regardless. Given how short the Raptors’ rotation is, Lowry, Siakam, and VanVleet are all going to see 36+ minutes per night barring a blowout, and tonight is not one of those games, as they take on Memphis. Allowing the most FPPG to slashing forwards, Siakam will have his way versus a team that struggles on the defensive glass – he may miss opportunities, but the putbacks will be there, resulting in only more fantasy points.
Gordon Hayward ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)
I wrote up what the Hornets rotation could look like tonight in the absence of Devonte’ Graham, but even if he does play, Hayward is underpriced for this spot. On a team where a large portion of the volume goes through LaMelo Ball, Terry Rozier, and Hayward, getting a piece of the offense versus a Rockets defense tonight will be something I have in my NBA lineups, and having Hayward, who is averaging 23.1/5.5/3.9 on 49.9% shooting in a matchup versus Eric Gordon and Jae’Sean Tate is certainly a spot I’m looking at early on.
Others to Consider:
- LeBron James ($10,800 FD / $10,500 DK)
- Mikal Bridges ($5,600 FD / $5,700 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $10,900 DK)
One of three games I’m looking to attack tonight, Giannis is in a great spot versus a spotty Nuggets defense. Not only will a combination of Paul Millsap and Michael Porter Jr. (LOL) not be able to guard the back-to-back NBA MVP, but with Joker being stuck guarding the paint against Giannis’ drives, he’ll either get into foul trouble, opening up even more room for Giannis when he comes off the floor, or he won’t play physical defense, which will work out just fine for Giannis’ production. With a 32.6% usage rate and a 27.1/11.2/5.8 scoring line in only 32.8 MPG, this spot may be too good to pass up on.
Draymond Green ($7,300 FD / $6,800 DK)
Draymond has turned in some vintage performances with the absence of James Wiseman in the lineup, resulting in more minutes at the ‘5’ and stat lines where he does everything but score. While the 5 PPG is awful to look out in his past three games, he’s also averaging 7.67 rebounds, 12.33 assists, 2.67 steals and 2 blocks. While the scoring would be nice, Dray has posted 40.75 DK in the same stretch, including a +33 rating in 103 minutes.
Others to Consider:
- Patrick Williams ($4,500 FD / $5,100 DK)
Centers
- FD: Andre Drummond ($7,200)
- DK: Nikola Jokic ($11,100)
Both Sites:
- Cody Zeller ($5,800 FD / $6,100 DK)
- Demarcus Cousins ($6,000 FD / $7,100 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
