Christopher Day 
We’re moving onto another NBA slate and Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems! I absolutely love this slate, so let’s dive in.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,500 FD / $10,800 DK)
Very rarely will I pay the premium for Doncic on FD where you lose more points for turnovers and have no bonuses for double-doubles or triple-doubles, but when he’s dropping stat lines to the tune of 35-point triple-doubles and carrying a ceiling of 80 FD points, he’s certainly worth noting. In a fast-paced matchup versus the man he was traded for, Trae Young, and the Atlanta Hawks, Doncic finds himself in an elite game environment against a team that allows over 52 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers, good for 28th in the NBA.
Trae Young ($10,400 FD / $9,500 DK)
On the flipside of the same game is Trae Young, who is also in an elite spot. They key for Young’s success has been getting opposing defenders to bite on his pump fakes and drawing fouls, as he currently sports the third-highest rank in the NBA with over 20 drives to the hoop per game. With Porzingis largely staying to the outside, Young will be able to score in bunches, allowing for a ceiling game.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 FD / $8,100 DK)
I wrote him up yesterday and he excelled to 38 DK points in a mere three quarters before being removed because of a 20-point lead heading into the fourth quarter. Tonight, the Pacers come in as massive ‘dogs versus Milwaukee and Brogdon will need to bring his A-game to keep pace. With Milwaukee allowing nearly 48 FPPG to opposing point guards, Brogdon’s revenge narrative is too good to pass up.
Others to Consider:
- De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD / $8,500 DK)
- Chris Paul ($8,000 FD / $8,300 DK)
- LaMelo Ball ($6,600 FD / $7,000 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($10,800 FD / $9,900 DK)
With Russell Westbrook likely sitting out the second half of a back-to-back for the Wizards, we can surely look to lock in Bradley Beal tonight, or close to it. In the games where Russ has missed, Beal is averaging just over 1.83 FPPM and has an absurd 43.5% usage rate. While the numbers certainly do jump off the page as MVP of this NBA slate, we need to wonder if Jimmy Butler will just cue on Beal all night long – something that will certainly hinder his ceiling. Nonetheless, he’s too cheap on DK but I can’t get there on FD where he’s nearly 11k.
Victor Oladipo ($8,200 FD / $7,800 DK)
In a game without John Wall, Victor Oladipo will be relied upon heavily as the primary ball handler. An OKC backcourt is already a favorable opponent, but now with both George Hill and SGA ruled out for tonight’s contest, Dipo’s 33.7% usage rate without his backcourt partner sets him up for a great spot on tonight’s NBA slate.
Collin Sexton ($6,800 FD / $6,900 DK)
Let’s make one thing clear, the Clippers cannot defend primary ball handlers. Look at what Kyrie and Harden did to them last night, Immanuel Quickley dropped 25 on them, Trae Young 38, De’Aaron Fox 25, and so on. Enter Collin Sexton, who comes into this one carrying a 28.7% usage rate with 24.1 PPG across 34.7 MPG. I can go on and on about more analytics, but sometimes it’s as simple as picking on a team that cannot defend a particular position or player style.
Others to Consider:
- Paul George ($8,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
- Immanuel Quickley ($5,800 FD / $5,500 DK)
- Tyrese Haliburton ($5,600 FD / $5,400 DK)
Small Forwards
Jimmy Butler ($8,500 FD / $8,400 DK)
In a pace-up spot versus Washington and their defense, or lack thereof, Jimmy Butler will look to continue his strong run since returning from a long absence due to COVID complications. Averaging 27.5/8/6.5 across 35.5 MPG since returning, Butler is too underpriced for a star in a game environment featuring the 29th ranked defense in the NBA.
Gordon Hayward ($7,400 FD / $7,200 DK)
Should Terry Rozier miss this game, I’ll let the field flock to the likes of LaMelo Ball, Devonte’ Graham, and perhaps chase the Malik Monk game from a few nights ago, in favor of exposure to Gordon Hayward and Miles Bridges. What most will focus on will be the absence of Rozier – and rightfully so – but losing PJ Washington now forces Hayward to shift to the ‘4’ and the Hornets to play smaller. With the 76ers have the length in Tobias Harris to match up on Hayward, he’ll be switching onto Danny Green the majority of the night, which can mean big things in big minutes at low ownership.
Others to Consider:
- Jaylen Brown ($8,700 FD / $7,900 DK)
- Khris Middleton ($7,900 FD / $8,200 DK)
- Miles Bridges ($4,200 FD / $4,600 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,200 FD / $11,000 DK)
I’m not playing Giannis Antetokounmpo based on matchups or the opposing team’s defensive rating in the paint or any other reason we typically play him. Rather, I think this Pacers/Bucks game stays much closer than the spread indicates, and 36 minutes of Giannis is a ton of fun to have in our NBA lineups. Sporting a 33% usage rate on the season, the only preventing Giannis from hitting a ceiling game on an NBA slate is a blowout or foul trouble – two things we cannot control. In a highly anticipated matchup versus a strong Pacers team, he’ll be needed to counter the Sabonis/Brogdon duo all night long.
Domantas Sabonis ($8,800 FD / $8,300 DK)
Are you not entertained? Go back to a single livestream, article, podcast, or whichever medium of media we do and name a time I did not mention to play this man. He just came off a 61-point DK performance and his price went down. The 24.1% usage rate does not matter when he’s averaging 21.1/12/5.7 across 36.7 MPG and you better believe I’ll have a ton of exposure to him in my NBA lineups again tonight.
Julius Randle ($8,600 FD / $9,100 DK)
A secret weapon of sauce tonight, Julius Randle may be the overlooked player at the position simply because of who sits right above him. In a matchup versus a Bulls frontcourt that I love to pick on, Randle is fresh off dropping 23/11/7 on this same squad just a few nights ago, where he shot 43.75% from the field and played 39 minutes. With the backcourt going through an identity crisis, the one stable element to the franchise right now is Julius Randle, and there’s no stopping him in this matchup.
Others to Consider:
- Bam Adebayo ($9,100 FD / $9,300 DK)
- Kristaps Porzingis ($7,500 FD / $7,500 DK)
Centers
These two. That’s it. That’s the tweet.
- Joel Embiid ($10,200 FD / $10,000 DK)
- Clint Capela ($8,800 FD / $8,800 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
