Christopher Day 
Coming off a profitable Monday, we’re onto tonight’s NBA slate and the Taco Tuesday’s edition of our Gems!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($10,000 FD / $9,100 DK)
Beginning in one of the games I want to attack most, Russell Westbrook still has not had a price increase despite not having a minutes limitation and is fresh off a 73.5 DK-point performance, where he dropped 41/10/8 on Brooklyn in a thrilling victory. Sporting a 31.7% usage rate on the season, the sheer volume that Westbrook has, where he is averaging 19 FGA per game, makes him appealing on any given NBA slate, but in a matchup versus someone he does not care for in Damian Lillard and fresh off a ridiculous outing versus Brooklyn, expect to see an aggressive Westbrook tonight who is simply too cheap for his floor/ceiling combination and can put up a triple-double at any point in time, as seen by his 20.9/9.4/9.5 season averages.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 FD / $7,900 DK)
With all of the stud point guards we have at the top of the pricing grid, Malcolm Brogdon will get severely overlooked in GPPs. Although I like the attack the Memphis frontcourt, who may be without Jonas Valanciunas yet again tonight, Ja Morant is one of the worst defenders in the NBA, as seen by the Grizzlies allowing over 48 FPPG to opposing primary ball handlers.
Others to Consider:
- Damian Lillard ($10,200 FD / $10,700 DK)
- Steph Curry ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)
Shooting Guards
Paul George ($8,400 FD / $8,900 DK)
While I will try to get exposure to this game for obvious reasons, it will largely come in the form of Paul George and Kevin Durant. I will not be playing Harden at his price tag, but I can’t blame you if you choose to do so considering the ceiling he has on any given night. Enter the primary pivot, PG13, who has a 28.5% usage rate this season while shooting 50.2% from the field and 45.4% from deep. With Kawhi preoccupied by KD on both ends of the floor, give me George against a combination of Kyrie and Harden all night long.
Donovan Mitchell ($7,800 FD / $7,600 DK)
Although this game has PPD risk given the potential COVID situation of the Detroit Pistons, we can keep an eye on it throughout the day, as we do with every other player news and team related information, and feel confident about Donovan Mitchell in our NBA lineups tonight should they be cleared. With the Pistons missing rookie Killian Hayes for some time now, their defense has actually improved versus primary ball handers, but they allow over 46 FPPG nonetheless, and Mitchell’s 30.9% usage rate and 22.8 PPG pace the squad.
Others to Consider:
- James Harden ($10,500 FD / $10,900 DK)
- Jeremy Lamb ($5,300 FD / $5,400 DK)
Small Forwards
Jaylen Brown ($8,700 FD / $7,800 DK)
Even with Tatum back in the lineup for the Celtics, we cannot ignore what JB has provided in a career year offensively. He takes a 2% dip in usage as a result, but still has a 29.3% rate, where he also averaging a career-high 26.2 PPG. In a game that will feature little defense as the Warriors will be without James Wiseman tonight, JB will be relied upon, along with Tatum, to keep pace with Curry & Co. as the Celtics try to squeak this one out without Marcus Smart.
Pascal Siakam ($8,300 FD / $7,700 DK)
What would have been a defensive snoozefest is now a viable spot for GPP Gems. With OG Anunoby already ruled out and Norman Powell doubtful to play, we can go back to Pascal Siakam for the Raptors and his increase usage rate. In the past two without OG and Norm, Siakam has a 33.6% usage rate and is averaging 31/7/2.5 on 53.5% shooting. He’s extremely volatile given Lowry and FVV’s roles, but it’s what can make our NBA lineups tonight rather than break them, considering most will shy away.
Others to Consider:
- Kevin Durant ($11,200 FD / $10,100 DK)
- Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 FD / $9,200 DK)
Power Forwards
Jayson Tatum ($9,500 FD / $8,600 DK)
I was thrilled to see him back in the lineup for Boston the other day and Jayson Tatum gets a great matchup tonight versus a small Warriors frontcourt. Already without James Wiseman, Draymond is questionable for this one and even if he does play, Tatum has the edge given his length and ability to score from both the outside and in the post. Sporting a 31.2% usage rate on the year, Tatum is averaging 26.33 PPG in his three games since returning while shooting 51.6% from the field.
Domantas Sabonis ($9,100 FD / $8,700 DK)
When I mentioned Malcolm Brogdon would get overlooked in GPPs tonight, you knew this one was coming. Sabonis will see a combination of Xavier Tillman, Brandon Clarke, and Gorgui Dieng in the paint tonight and um, that’s fun. A mere 24.1% usage rate has not stopped Sabonis from producing, as he holds a strong 20.6/12 double-double to go along with 5.7 APG, and he’ll have his way all night long with close to no ownership on tonight’s NBA slate.
Others to Consider:
- Brandon Clarke ($6,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
- Xavier Tillman ($5,400 FD / $5,100 DK)
Centers
Nikola Vucevic ($8,800 FD / $8,200 DK)
By no means am I playing anyone else at the center position tonight in my main lineup. On FD, he’s cheap, but on DK, this price makes no sense. Now without both Markelle Fultz and Aaron Gordon, the entire Orlando offense is going through Vuc. The. Entire. Thing. With the Raptors having no interior defense, this sets up Vuc in a great spot, and even though he shot 5-for-18 last game, he still put up 49 DK points. Let that sink in before fading him.
Also Consider:
- Myles Turner ($7,400 FD / $6,800 DK)
- Enes Kanter ($7,000 FD / $6,900 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
