Christopher Day 
As we turn the page to another week of NBA DFS, we’re back for a new edition of Mojito Monday’s Gems as we prepare for tonight’s slate!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($10,000 FD / $10,700 DK)
No CJ McCollum has benefitted Dame, to no one’s surprise, but the matchup versus a Milwaukee team that simply cannot defend the perimeter is what has him at the top of my priority list at the PG position. Sporting a 31.1% usage rate on the season, Dame now averages 29.6 PPG thanks to 5 of his past 6 games, where he dropped 30 or more, including 4 of 6 being 35 or more. While the 38.7% shooting from behind the arc can surely improve, Dame is still launching 10.6 three-pointers per game and Milwaukee allows 15.2 three-pointers made per game.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,200 FD / $8,300 DK)
FD refuses to increase his price and I’ll gladly take advantage. Being the entire Sacramento offense, Fox’s current scoring line of 21.3/3.4/6.1 on a 30.2% usage rate doesn’t exactly jump off the page, but his game environment does: with New Orleans having pace-up spots in their last four games, they are currently playing at the fastest pace in the NBA – something that De’Aaron Fox likes to, um, do quite often, and do quite well. With the Pelicans allowing over 48 FPPG to opposing primary ball-handlers, Fox is the guy I want in this matchup all night long.
Others to Consider:
- Dejounte Murray ($6,900 FD / $6,600 DK)
- LaMelo Ball ($6,300 FD / $6,500 DK)
Shooting Guards
Victor Oladipo ($8,200 FD / $8,000 DK)
Thanks to multi-position eligibility (MPE) on DK, I won’t have to play any of these guys on DK tonight, but for our FD players, the position is ugly. The combination of floor/ceiling at the upper range of the pricing grid begins and ends with Vic Oladipo, who has a 31.5% usage rate in 6 games with the Rockets thus far, averaging 22/5/5.2 across 32.8 MPG. Facing a poor OKC defense, he’s as safe as it gets for our NBA GPP lineups on FD tonight if paying up at the position.
Collin Sexton ($6,800 FD / $7,000 DK)
A preferable target of mine on FD tonight over Dipo, Collin Sexton’s price continues to be unreflective of his scoring output. Sure, he takes a hit with Andre Drummond dropping 20/20 like it’s his day job, but with the Cavaliers on the second half of a back-to-back, Sexton will shoulder a much larger load tonight. The T-Wolves rank 27th in the NBA in defense rating and a matchup versus D’Angelo Russell will have Sexton as a primary target of mine on FD, where the T-Wolves allow over 44 FPPG to opposing primary ball-handlers.
Others to Consider:
- Kendrick Nunn ($5,900 FD / $6,000 DK)
- Devonte’ Graham ($5,500 FD / $6,400 DK)
Small Forwards
Jimmy Butler ($8,700 FD / $8,400 DK)
Coming off a long stretch of missing games for the defending Eastern Conference Champions, Jimmy Butler made his presence known in his return, dropping 30/7/8 in 34 minutes just a few nights ago against Sacramento. The key here was how aggressive Butler was, getting to the free throw line a ridiculous 16 times; with the Hornets struggling on the inside with a combination of PJ Washington and Cody Zeller on the inside, expect Butler to run the same type of offense he did the other night.
Khris Middleton ($7,900 FD / $8,500 DK)
I cannot stress how important getting exposure to this game is for tonight’s NBA slate. While he is clearly a #2 option on the Bucks, Middleton has the edge it takes to be an x-factor in this matchup versus Dame and the Blazers. Despite the low 24.1% usage rate, which is expected when you’re sharing the court with Giannis, Middleton is still averaging 21.4/6.5/5.8 across 33.2 MPG. The volume isn’t something that will jump off the page, with just over 15 FGA per game, but his 51% shooting from the field is no joke. A matchup versus Carmelo Anthony and Gary Trent on the wing has Middleton on my radar tonight considering the absence of Derrick Jones Jr. on the Blazers’ wing.
Others to Consider:
- Brandon Ingram ($8,000 FD / $8,200 DK)
- Malik Beasley ($6,500 FD / $6,700 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600 FD / $11,000 DK)
The Greek Freak is the top play on the entire NBA slate tonight. With an increasing 33.4% usage rate, Giannis is now averaging 27.4/11.4/5.7 on 55.3% shooting, including 30.33 PPG and 14.16 RPG across 37.83 MPG in his past 6. With Giannis attacking the likes of Enes Kanter and a much smaller Robert Covington, in addition to Carmelo Anthony in the paint all night long, there is no reason why he cannot be the highest scorer on the slate.
Anthony Davis ($10,300 FD / $9,800 DK)
A pure GPP gem tonight, Anthony Davis will first need to lose the ‘Q’ tag, as in every other game in his career, before we can consider him on tonight’s NBA slate. Nonetheless, Davis will be needed to monitor the paint with Clint Capela on the other side and have to be much more aggressive on the glass than he has been this season; Davis is only averaging 9.1 RPG this season, but he is an extremely talented rebounder and will be needed to counter Capela. With 20 or more FGA in his last four, his volume is ramping up, and so is his DFS ceiling.
Others to Consider:
- Julius Randle ($8,800 FD / $9,200 DK)
- Zion Williamson ($8,300 FD / $7,900 DK)
- Xavier Tillman ($5,100 FD / $4,800 DK)
Centers
Nikola Jokic ($10,900 FD / $10,900 DK)
The favorite for NBA MVP, Joker has been playing on another level this season. Rocking a 29.5% usage rate, he’s currently averaging a near triple-double to the tune of 26.8/11.8/8.6 on 57.4% shooting. Coming off a 47-point performance in a win versus the Jazz, the back-to-back may scare some away, and that will keep his ownership lower than it should be, which is a big mistake versus a Pistons frontcourt that allows over 58 FPPG to opposing centers, including over 10 offensive rebounds allowed per game.
Enes Kanter ($7,000 FD / $7,200 DK)
Similarly to Oladipo, Kanter is the safest option at a bare position tonight on FD. In an ideal world, we can pay up for Jokic and move on, but with the priorities being Lillard and Antetokounmpo, Jokic will be hard to get to. Enter Kanter, who is averaging 12.8/13/2.5 across 29.6 MPG when starting. Facing Brook Lopez down low used to be a spot to avoid, but with his blocking ability being a shell of what it once was, I’m not opposed to going here for his combination of floor and ceiling in NBA GPPs.
Also Consider:
- Cody Zeller ($5,200 FD / $5,300 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
