Brian Tulloch 
Another successful slate yesterday from both a DFS and props perspective! We now turn on our attention to tonight’s 4-game NBA slate with the Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($9,700 FD / $10,600 DK)
Your NBA builds tonight need to start with Dame or Steph, no questions asked. Beginning with the man in Portland, Lillard is sporting a 30.3% usage rate on the season, averaging 28.7/4.8/7 on 44.7% shooting and over 19 FGA per game. With Houston ranking in the bottom third of the NBA in FPPG allowed to opposing ball handlers and the combination of Enes Kanter’s success and Christian Wood’s lackluster defense versus the pick ‘n roll, sky’s the limit for Lillard tonight.
Steph Curry ($9,800 FD / $9,700 DK)
Say hello to a huge discount off Lillard on DK and enter Curry into your lineups to not only get different, but possibly even have a higher scoring output. With Curry’s modest 16/6/8 scoring line from yesterday, I expect the majority of the field to lock in Lillard whilst considering both recency bias and the fact that CJ McCollum remains out. However, I think that’s a big mistake; taking on the Suns tonight, the Warriors will need the best shooter of all time to light it up on offense if they want to beat CP3, Devin Booker, and company in a game that Vegas has pegged as a pick ‘em.
Others to Consider:
- Chris Paul ($7,400 FD / $8,000 DK)
- Reggie Jackson ($5,000 FD / $7,000 DK)
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker ($7,600 FD / $8,300 DK)
After missing yesterday’s game versus the Thunder, Devin Booker is slated to get back into the Suns lineup tonight and finds himself in a great spot. Having a down year to his standards with only 22.9 PPG, Booker is still rocking a 29.9% usage rate across 14 games played and will be relied both on and off-ball tonight. With the Warriors ranking toward the bottom of the NBA in defense versus combo guards, Booker takes the steering wheel back from CP3 tonight.
Kendrick Nunn ($6,200 FD / $5,900 DK)
We want both Goran Dragic and Tyler Herro to miss this game to get a potential ceiling game from Nunn, but either way, he remains in my pool for NBA GPPs tonight. With Nunn playing 35.67 MPG across his last six games, his scoring talent has been on display, where he is also averaging 19 PPG. The floor is low, but with a matchup versus the likes of Reggie Jackson and Terance Mann all night, the ceiling is too high not to consider him tonight.
Others to Consider:
- Terance Mann ($4,500 FD / $5,400 DK)
Small Forwards
LeBron James ($10,700 FD / $10,400 DK)
Want to get really different in GPPs tonight? Play the best player on the planet on a 4-game slate. There are barely any games tonight, and still, the field is not playing LeBron James. I understand, the price is a hefty one to pay and there are better options from a Point/$ perspective, but this may be too good of a spot to pass up on FD specifically, where you need to roster two SFs. Averaging 40/7/6 in 38 MPG in his last two, while tonight’s game may not be as competitive as those against the 76ers and Cavaliers, LeBron only needs little time to do damage.
Carmelo Anthony ($5,200 FD / $5,600 DK)
It’s nice to say Melo is a lock on an NBA slate this late into his career, and here we are. Sporting a 27.5% usage rate with both McCollum and Nurkic off the court, second on the team to only Damian Lillard, Melo will get all the volume he can handle in a secondary scoring role whilst likely getting another start for the Trail Blazers tonight. To put it into perspective, in the Blazers’ 122-125 loss to the Thunder, Dame shot the ball 22 times, while Melo had 21 shot attempts. With similar volume tonight, Melo is to go-to target in the mid-range.
Others to Consider:
- Eric Gordon ($6,000 FD / $6,600 DK)
- Duncan Robinson ($4,700 FD / $5,500 DK)
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis ($10,200 FD / $8,900 DK)
AD. Under 9K on DK. Not 10K, 9K. ARE YOU JOKING DK? Whether you think this is a blowout or not, we just saw Andre Drummond post 23/16 with 5 steals and 2 blocks in 28 minutes versus the same frontcourt not even 24 hours ago. You’re telling me AD doesn’t have the talent to do the same? At 9K? I can give you all the analytics in the world, but you don’t need math to justify this one on tonight’s NBA slate.
Christian Wood ($9,500 FD / $8,700 DK)
The man that is garnering more ownership than AD on DK tonight is surely in play, but it’s a big-time woof that he’s coming in higher owned at the time of writing. For one, with the recent play of Demarcus Cousins, there is no guarantee they do not share the court together. Second, Wood has missed a ton of games and this is his first back – he says he’s 100%, but every player will. Regardless, with how bad Enes Kanter is at defending, period, let alone defending the paint, Wood, who ranks 10th in paint touches per game with 8.3, will be able to dominate the post.
Others to Consider:
- Serge Ibaka ($6,200 FD / $6,800 DK)
- Jae Crowder ($5,200 FD / $5,500 DK)
Centers
Deandre Ayton ($8,300 FD / $7,800 DK)
After yesterday’s chalk flop, here we go again. We did manage to pivot away as much as we could the moment Al Horford was ruled in, as it presented an unfavorable matchup for the Suns big man. However, tonight’s NBA slate presents Ayton with a much better matchup versus a weak Warriors interior, who rank last in the league in rebounding percentage at 47.1%. Ayton, who ranks 4th in the NBA in rebounding percentage at 21.3%, will be able to feast in the paint all night long.
Enes Kanter ($6,500 FD / $7,100 DK)
A nice leverage spot off a chalky Damian Lillard, Enes Kanter will be relied upon to play heavy minutes versus both Boogie Cousins and Christian Wood tonight. A lackluster defender, Kanter presents himself as an offensive threat that averages 1.28 FPPM and a 10.5/13.5 scoring line across 27.7 MPG in 4 starts this season.
Also Consider:
- James Wiseman ($4,800 FD / $4,900 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
