Christopher Day 
The team smashed yesterday’s slate with our core notes in both articles and in Discord so we’re turning the page and keeping the streak going for Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems! A massive NBA slate tonight, we’ll be narrowing down the options quite a bit and waiting for news to firmly plant our flag to get some more wins.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,300 DK)
Seriously? The same matchup, same MVP, same GOAT shooter at the SAME price? Don’t make it too easy for us, guys. Here’s my piece from Monday:
“One of the hardest positions to identify which stud to play is point guard. However, tonight’s decision came fairly easily when the pricing discrepancy on the two-time NBA MVP was made clear, especially on DK. With the Timberwolves ranking 6th in the league in pace and 27th in defensive rating, Curry should have his way with former teammate D’Angelo Russell all night long, making his 1.39 FPPM and 31.7% usage rate a perfect spot for our “marteau d’soir”.”
Don’t overthink this one – Steph put up 36/4/3 and 7 three-pointers for 53.5 DK just two nights ago in the same spot.
Malcolm Brogdon ($8,300 FD / $8,600 DK)
Should Sabonis miss this game for the Pacers tonight, there is another primary target that I’ll get to at the enter position in the “Also Consider” category because I much prefer to target Charlotte’s interior than their guards, but this is too good of a spot not to write up Brogdon as well. Sporting a ridiculous 1.71 FPPM with all of his teammates out, with the exception of Myles Turner, he’ll be a focal point of my NBA lineups tonight should Sabonis be ruled out.
Chris Paul ($7,400 FD / $7,600 DK)
The sample size is small considering Devin Booker has only missed one game, but it’s hard to ignore CP3’s near triple-double last time out. In a whopping 42 minutes, the Point God put up 21/9/13 on 9-for-20 shooting and only got to the free throw line twice. With CP3 formerly being a mentor to SGA, look for the master to remind the student just how good he is tonight.
Others to Consider:
- Luka Doncic ($11,500 FD / $10,900 DK)
- Dejounte Murray ($7,600 FD / $6,600 DK)
- FD special: De’Aaron Fox ($7,900 FD)
- DK special: Trae Young ($9,200 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($10,300 FD / $10,200 DK)
The face of the Wizards franchise, Beal only needed one game after a long layoff to get right back to what he does best: scoring. Pacing the NBA in PPG with 34.4 per outing, Beal dropped a cool 33/5/4 yesterday while shooting the ball 28 times. 28, people. Now, possibly without Russell Westbrook tonight, imagine if his volume increases even more? What if he shoots 50% from the field instead of 42.86% like yesterday? Sky’s the limit for the man with a 35.2% usage rate and a 31.3/5.3/7.7 scoring line in three games without Westbrook in the lineup.
D’Angelo Russell ($7,500 FD / $8,300 DK)
Similar to Curry, DLo finds himself in the same spot as a few days ago, where he missed the original bout with his former franchise. Here is my piece from then:
“An interesting revenge narrative for tonight’s NBA slate, DLo fits the bill to run a 1-2 game stack with Steph Curry as they do battle for our “marteau d’soir”. Sporting a usage rate just north of 30% with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor, Russell will have ample opportunity in both the pick ‘n roll and off the ball, as the Warriors rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA to FP allowed per game to combo guards.”
I’ll gladly take the price discount and go right back to this spot, should he eventually lose the ‘Q’ tag.
Collin Sexton ($7,300 FD / $6,600 DK)
A price discount because of two bad games? No problem, I’ll gladly an underpriced Collin Sexton in a premier matchup at low ownership on tonight’s NBA slate. While my Cleveland exposure will largely come in the form of a certain center to be discussed in a bit, Sexton is surely in my player pool, having a career year under a 29.2% usage rate and having scored 20 or more points in every game this season outside of his past two.
Others to Consider:
- Donovan Mitchell ($8,200 FD / $8,400 DK)
- Jeremy Lamb ($5,200 FD / $5,100 DK)
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($10,700 FD / $10,300 DK)
KD versus John Collins round two? Yes, please. Facing a man who cannot breathe without fouling someone, there will be no stopping Kevin Durant tonight in both his post game and on the perimeter. While I do not anticipate for him to attack the paint given how well Capela has been playing, that’s more than fine for one of the most versatile scorers of our generation. While his price tag is a hefty one on tonight’s NBA slate, a 5x floor of 50 points is something we may just take and move on considering it will likely put him as one of the highest scorers on the slate, let alone if he hits his ceiling. Say it with me folks: John Collins on KD is no bueno.
Gordon Hayward ($8,100 FD / $7,500 DK)
I really try to stay away from players that I have no confidence in their ceiling, but Gordon Hayward has been too good to simply ignore. Leading the charge for a surprising Charlotte team, the key here, as I have pointed out before, is the minutes Hayward has been playing: having averaged 30.7 PPG in his past seven with 35 minutes or more, Hayward followed that up with a 39/9/1 outing, which also included a buzzer beating layup versus Orlando on the front end of a back-to-back, only to drop 24/5/4 with 3 steals and a block in 38 minutes the following night versus the same Magic team. Yeah, he’s in top form.
De’Andre Hunter ($5,600 FD / $6,500 DK)
An absolute stud coming out of UVA, Hunter is truly blossoming into a legitimate 3-and-D wing for these young Hawks. A player that rarely leaves the court, Hunter is averaging 32.6 minutes for Atlanta across 16 games, but with Danilo Gallinari unlikely to play in this one and Bogdan Bogdanovic continuing to nurse an injury, Hunter will be relied upon for 36+ tonight versus a fast paced Nets team in a game environment he truly thrives in. Averaging 27.5 PPG in his last two in 39 MPG, Hunter also saw a drastic increase in shot attempts to 18.5 per game, much more than his season average of 11.9.
Others to Consider:
- Khris Middleton ($7,900 FD / $8,200 DK)
- Mikal Brides ($5,400 FD / $5,300 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,700 DK)
With the league’s back-to-back MVP ramping things up in his past three games, we turn our attention to the Greek Freak on tonight’s NBA slate as a star to possibly build our lineups around. With a 33.8% usage rate on the season, Giannis has averaged 28.67 PPG on 58.93% shooting in his last three. Playing in more competitive environments has only benefitted the all-star, seeing 37 MPG in the same span, and he’s set to be in another one here tonight where he’ll have his way with a terrible Raptors interior since the departures of Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol in the offseason.
Zion Williamson ($7,800 FD / $7,800 DK)
Although new coach SVG is making it tough to get excited about having exposure to his Pelicans, tonight is an exception for the storied sophomore. With the Wizards down to a two-man rotation of Robin Lopez and Alex Len in the paint, there will be nobody that can stop Williamson on the inside tonight. If Davis Bertans and Rui Hachimura come back from COVID protocol, it’s an even better matchup. Look for Zion’s usage rate tonight to be much higher than his season average of 27.8%.
Aaron Gordon ($6,800 FD / $7,700 DK)
A stronger play on FD where he is much cheaper at listed at a scarce position, Gordon slides in nicely in the early stages of our NBA builds tonight. Although I do prefer his teammate listed right in the next section, Gordon is too cheap for someone who can stuff the stat sheet as much as he can in a favorable matchup versus the worst defense in the league.
Others to Consider:
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,500 DK) – if ruled IN
Centers
Joel Embiid ($9,800 FD / $9,400 DK)
An early favorite for NBA MVP thus far, Embiid has a tough matchup versus Anthony Davis and the Lakers tonight, but these are the kinds of games he gets up for. The man known as The Process is averaging a ridiculous 27.7/11.5/2.7 stat line and contributing on the defensive end with 1.3 steals per game and 1.4 blocks per game. A 31.3% usage rate has Embiid involved early and often, and any time he is under 10K, I’ll get exposure.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 FD / $9,200 DK)
The forgotten about man at the ‘5’ on tonight’s NBA slate because of how loaded the position is, Vuc is in a smash spot versus the likes of Richaun Holmes and Marvin Bagley. Sporting a 28.1% usage rate and playing a hefty 33.3 MPG for the Magic, Vuc has quietly been one of the best in the league thus far, averaging 23.5/11.1/3.7 and an improved 3-point shot, where he is currently making 2.8 3’s per game on 43.5% shooting has him in play on a nightly basis.
Andre Drummond ($8,800 FD / $8,400 DK)
Cue the revenge narrative of the NBA slate. Andre Drummond faces his former franchise in Detroit and their weak interior of Mason Plumlee and Blake Griffin. While his minutes are lower than before the acquisition of Jarrett Allen, there will be no stopping a 20-20 Drummond performance tonight in the time he is on the court; Detroit ranks 28th versus big men, allowing over 58 FPPG to the position, and the price on Drummond is outright laughable.
Also Consider:
- Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $10,500 DK)
- Myles Turner ($7,100 FD / $7,500 DK)
- DK Special: Clint Capela ($9,100 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
