Christopher Day 
With the NFL season winding down, it’s time for bigger and better NBA contests, so we’re bringing the heat for Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems! Despite the 10-game slate, there are clear paths for us to look at before the news hits, so let’s get to it.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($9,600 FD / $9,200 DK)
One of the hardest positions to identify which stud to play is point guard. However, tonight’s decision came fairly easily when the pricing discrepancy on the two-time NBA MVP was made clear, especially on DK. With the Timberwolves ranking 6th in the league in pace and 27th in defensive rating, Curry should have his way with former teammate D’Angelo Russell all night long, making his 1.39 FPPM and 31.7% usage rate a perfect spot for our “marteau d’soir”.
Kyrie Irving ($9,4,00 FD / $9,000 DK)
With a certain Miami big man being a priority for us yet again tonight, I’m going right back to the well and running a 1-2 punch with Kyrie Irving. Despite the slow start last game versus Miami, Kyrie still finished with 28/6/7 on 58.8% shooting, 60% from deep, and nearly 50 FP across both sites, showing just how great of an impact he can make in such little time.
Others to Consider:
- Dejounte Murray ($7,600 FD / $6,500 DK)
- Damian Lillard ($9,700 FD / $10,300 DK)
Shooting Guards
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200 FD / $8,100 DK)
Despite not making the cut for me on DK tonight because of the man listed right below him, SGA is in a prime spot for one of our two SG on FD. Although he is battling consistency throughout the NBA season, it is not because of a lack of usage: SGA paces the Thunder with a 26.1% clip, whereby no other starter reaches 20% or more. Despite the lack of surrounding talent in what can only be classed as a rebuilding year, SGA’s matchup versus Portland, who ranks 26th in the league versus primary ball handlers, is one that is simply too good to pass up.
D’Angelo Russell ($8,100 FD / $8,300 DK)
An interesting revenge narrative for tonight’s NBA slate, DLo fits the bill to run a 1-2 game stack with Steph Curry as they do battle for our “marteau d’soir”. Sporting a usage rate just north of 30% with Karl-Anthony Towns off the floor, Russell will have ample opportunity in both the pick ‘n roll and off the ball, as the Warriors rank in the bottom-10 of the NBA to FP allowed per game to combo guards.
Others to Consider:
- Fred VanVleet ($7,900 FD / $7,900 DK)
- Kendrick Nunn ($6,500 FD / $6,100 DK)
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($10,400 FD / $10,400 DK)
If you’re not getting exposure to the Brooklyn Nets offense in the form of Kyrie Irving, take a long look at KD. Coming in as the second-highest scorer in the NBA behind only Bradley Beal, KD has made a strong return from an achilles injury, averaging 31.2 PPG to go along with 7.2 RPG and 5.8 RPG. With no Jimmy Butler yet again for the Heat, there’s nobody to guard KD on the wing, nor on the perimeter.
Gordon Hayward ($8,100 FD / $7,300 DK)
I never thought I’d be writing Hayward up because he is too safe of an option on a nightly basis, but with his price on DK being $1,000 too cheap and the lack of options at the position on FD, he makes the list. They key for Hayward has been his minutes in the past three games, where he has three straight 38-minute outings. In his past 7 games where he has played 35 or more minutes, Hayward has put up an average of 44.9 DK points, whereby he’s also averaging 30.71 PPG on a ridiculous 56.82% shooting.
OG Anunoby ($6,200 FD / $6,900 DK)
A far better play on FD due to salary and scoring differential, OG has been featured here for quite some time yet continues to carry ridiculously low ownership on a nightly basis. OG carries a surprisingly safe floor on FD due to his defensive upside, where he paces the NBA with 2.2 steals per game, but should Siakam miss this game, he gets an even greater bump due to a larger role on offense, as seen in his last three games, where he’s averaging 23 PPG and 6.33 RPG.
Others to Consider:
- LeBron James ($9,800 FD / $9,300 DK)
- Jaylen Brown ($9,000 FD / $8,500 DK)
- Brandon Ingram ($7,700 FD / $8,000 DK)
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis ($10,100 FD / $9,200 DK)
What if I told you that you cannot only have Steph Curry for $9,200 on DK, but also Anthony Davis? Well, that’s the reality on tonight’s NBA slate, and it’s scary that he is still not pulling the ownership he deserves. While Cleveland’s defense has been stout in the early stages of the season, they are vulnerable in the paint with a combination of Jarrett Allen’s lackluster defense and Andre Drummond foul issues against fellow big men. I said it before that AD would break a slate, and last game versus Chicago, where he dropped 37/6/3 on 66.67% shooting in his hometown may have been what he needed to get going.
Domantas Sabonis ($9,600 FD / $9,800 DK)
Despite the hefty price tag putting him in the same price bracket as Anthony Davis, Joel Embiid, Bam Adebayo, and others, Sabonis still warrants consideration tonight. For the very same reason that I just laid out for you, nobody will play him, and if he outscores other studs on the slate, you’ll be jumping thousands of spots at once; Leading the NBA with 38.4 MPG, Sabonis ranks fourth in RPG with 12.9 to go along with his 20.9 PPG and 5.8 APG. In 40 minutes yesterday versus the Raptors, who struggle mightily in the paint, Sabonis still managed to drop 10/19/5 despite only making 1 shot from the field – that’s right, one. Whereas Myles Turner shot 8 for 12 from the field yesterday, Sabonis is the guy to target here and should have a 20/15/5 game with ease.
Bam Adebayo ($9,600 FD / $8,500 DK)
Over 28% usage and 1.44 FPPM with Butler off the floor this season and DK has not changed Adebayo’s price after coming off a 62 DK point performance despite only grabbing 5 rebounds. The Nets have been decimated in the paint since moving Jarrett Allen out to Cleveland, and there’s absolutely no reason to go right back to well tonight.
Others to Consider:
- Zion Williamson ($8,000 FD / $7,900 DK)
- Chris Boucher ($6,500 FD / $6,800 DK)
Centers
Primary options at the time of writing:
- Nikola Jokic ($11,200 FD / $10,800 DK)
- Joel Embiid ($10,200 FD / $9,700 DK)
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 FD / $8,700 DK)
- Myles Turner ($7,500 FD / $7,400 DK)
Note: I am playing Bam at Center on DK, but these are my preferred options for FD or utility options on DK.
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
