Christopher Day 
Fajita Friday has to be one of my favorite days of the week: it’s almost the weekend, and these NBA slates are a ton of fun. Today’s edition of the Gems is packed with studs and news to follow, so let’s dive in!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,600 FD / $11,000 DK)
I can easily write up my top play of the NBA slate and refer to his 35.8% usage rate and 1.61 FPPM, amongst other statistics, but instead, let me explain why I love Luka tonight using something that is not quantifiable nor explainable by DFS math: this Mavs/Bucks game is on ESPN with the whole nation watching, where two of the league’s youngest stars are going head to head. With the Bucks shipping their entire future to acquire Jrue Holiday, their bench is terrible – and I truly mean terrible. However, so is the Mavs’; there is no clear edge here for either team to go down in this game to a 10-0 run by the opposition when second units are being ran by the likes of Trey Burke, James Johnson, and Bobby Portis. Enter Luka and Giannis, who go back and forth all night long.
Trae Young ($8,800 FD / $8,700 DK)
Now that we have solidified where our build begins on tonight’s NBA slate, it’s time to start looking how we can jam in another high-profile player. Enter Trae Young, who is $1,000 too cheap across both sites tonight given his upside. If you’re game log watching, you’ll avoid Young tonight – and I’ll gladly take advantage because that is the definition of a fish play. With Rudy Gobert manning the paint for the Jazz against Clint Capela, look for Young to get the advantage through a ton of high screens and switch onto Donovan Mitchell, and, well, good luck to DMitch guarding Trae, who also carries a 32.4% usage rate and 24.8 PPG, including 10 attempts from the charity stripe per game.
De’Aaron Fox ($7,300 FD / $8,100 DK)
I probably won’t land here, but Fox is grossly mispriced since he is back to 100% health. If you’re running multiple lines on tonight’s NBA slate, make sure Fox is in your player pool, where he carries a 28.6% usage rate and is coming off two heav-volume games, playing 36 and 38 minutes, scoring a combined 50 points, 11 rebounds, 15 assists, and took a whopping 37 field goal attempts, including 14 3-pointers.
Others to Consider:
- Dennis Schroder ($5,900 FD / $6,400 DK)
- Damyean Dotson ($5,000 FD / $5,200 DK)
Shooting Guards
Zach Lavine ($9,000 FD / $9,500 DK)
All season long, Zach Lavine has had to carry his Bulls in game versus far superior opponents in the hopes of squeaking out a win or two. Tonight, he gets a rebuilding OKC team to take advantage of and truly thrive on the offensive end, as he has been all season: sporting a 31% usage rate, Lavine is averaging a ridiculous 27.7 PPG on 49.9% shooting, and his 20+ FGA per game has him on my list as a low-owned play on tonight’s NBA slate, but the price is a bit outrageous to consider him even close to a core piece.
Paul George ($8,800 FD / $9,400 DK)
Let’s make one thing clear right off the bat – the Kings cannot defend primary ball handlers for the life of them. Luke Walton’s defensive system is so bad to the tune of having the worst defense rating in the NBA, and I will continue to pick on it: enter PG13, who is sporting a 28.7% usage rate and is averaging 25.2 PPG on 49.7% shooting, including 51.6% from deep and 90.9% from the free throw line.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,200 FD / $7,700 DK)
Sporting a 26.5% usage rate for the rebuilding Thunder, SGA has had him ups and downs this season, but with a juicy matchup versus the Bulls on tap, he’s in play for NBA GPPs tonight. With the 29th-ranked defense rating, there won’t be much stopping SGA in this matchup other than efficiency and minutes – two things that are out of our control. The controllable measures line up well – fire him up with confidence tonight.
Others to Consider:
- Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($5,500 FD / $4,400 DK)
- Jordan Clarkson ($5,200 FD / $6,100 DK)
Small Forwards
LeBron James ($9,900 FD / $9,700 DK)
If you’re not going Trae or KAT as your third stud on DK, you need to consider one of LeBron or AD. While the Pelicans’ defensive system has improved under SVG, Lonzo Ball has already been ruled out for this contest and Eric Bledsoe remains questionable, meaning LeBron can see the likes of NAW and Sindarious Thornwell on defense – yikes! With a 32.9% usage rate this season, LeBron has only been getting better as both the NBA season and his career goes on, averaging 24.3/8.1/7.5 across 31.9 MPG.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,600 FD / $9,600 DK)
See Paul George’s blurb as to why we’re attacking this Sacramento defense – Kawhi comes into this one with 29.7% usage rate and a steady 24.8/5/6 stat line, but the potential to have his minutes reduced in favor of PG has me scared at this price tag. Nonetheless, there is no scenario where I see Harrison Barnes guarding Kawhi one on one and coming out of it with a win, so he is certainly in play at sub-10% ownership. I’m out on DK but having to roster two SF on FD makes him a viable pay-up option considering how thin the position is tonight.
Others to Consider:
- Malik Beasley ($6,400 FD / $7,100 DK)
- Cedi Osman ($5,100 FD / $6,200 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $10,800 DK)
See the Luka Doncic blurb as to why we’re attacking the 1-2 punch of this game – with a 1.64 FPPM and 34.2% usage rate, the NBA MVP is back at it again this season, averaging 26.2/10.1/5.5/1.3/1.2 across a mere 31.2 MPG. With the Mavs keeping this one close, Giannis will see 34+ minutes barring any foul trouble and will look to attack the likes of an injured Porzingis, Kleber, Powell, and Co. all night long.
Anthony Davis ($9,800 FD / $9,800 DK)
Can you say it with me? Revenge Narrative SZN folks. While you can argue that he left the Pelicans awhile ago, AD still left with a bad taste in his mouth, and there’s no better way to silence the “Zion will replace AD” truthers than to drop a nice 40-20 game on his former organization. Despite the 26% usage rate this season, AD has still taken over 15 shots per game, but the volume will increase here tonight, and he’ll have ample opportunity to secure more rebounds with Zion back in the lineup for the Pelicans.
Julius Randle ($9,100 FD / $9,100 DK)
The forgotten about PF on FD tonight, Julius Randle remains in play because of two things: for one, he’s been playing outrageously well, but he’s also now under Thibs, who runs his starters into the ground more than Nick Nurse does in Toronto. Playing a whopping 37.3 MPG, Randle will be needed to match up versus the plethora of bigs Cleveland now has, and there is plenty to take advantage of in Jarrett Allen and the foul-prone duo of Andre Drummond and JaVale McGee.
Others to Consider:
- Aaron Gordon ($6,500 FD / $7,300 DK)
- Brandon Clarke ($5,600 FD / $6,100 DK)
Centers
Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,800 FD / $9,900 DK)
Two terrible rebounding teams going up against one another? Yes, please. KAT In the very same matchup just a few days ago, he dropped 25/14 in 34 minutes – without game log watching, the key statistic for me here was that he was able to secure 4 offensive rebounds. With his dominance in the paint and the ability to get out to the 3-point line effectively, he’s simply too underpriced in this matchup.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,400 FD / $9,000 DK)
A notable spike in usage to 32.5% since Markelle Fultz went down for the season, Vuc’s 1.45 FPPM makes him an intriguing GPP pivot on an NBA slate where the Boston/Orlando game is drawing next to no ownership. With Boston’s “bigs” slated to return to the lineup, I like the matchup even more because Orlando will have no reason to sit out their stud versus a small-ball Celtics lineup, in addition to the fact that neither Tristan Thompson nor Daniel Theis will be able to guard Vuc in the paint.
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,000 FD / $7,100 DK)
We spoke about KAT’s ability to secure offense rebounds, but how about JoVal with a whopping 8 (!!) against the Timberwolves last time out. He’ll be much needed to match up versus Towns all night long considering the size mismatch between he and Brandon Clarke, and with Dieng having fallen out of the rotation. If Ja Morant comes back for this one, I’ll slightly downgrade JoVal, but his 45-50-point ceiling at this price makes him a contender for my NBA lineups tonight.
Others to Consider:
- Clint Capela ($6,400 FD / $6,700 DK)
- Mitchell Robinson ($6,000 FD / $6,300 DK
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
