Christopher Day 
Mojito Mondays are always a great day to be alive, especially when we have this juicy of an NBA slate!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis. Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,500 FD / $11,300 DK)
Sporting a 37.2% usage rate on the season, Luka Doncic may be one of, if not the most relied upon player in the NBA right now. Already without Kristaps Porzingis in the early stages of the season, Dallas will once again be without Dorian Finney-Smith, Josh Richardson, and Jalen Brunson tonight. With Doncic slated to be facing a combination of Lonzo Ball and Eric Bledsoe, he may very well be the highest scoring player on the NBA slate, and with the amount of value available to us already, it’s hard to pass up on this spot for the third-year pro. Game PPD
Damian Lillard ($9,600 FD / $9,700 DK)
He’ll surely come in underowned on this NBA slate given the player listed above and right below him are in tremendous spots, but Damian Lillard will get to have his way with the Toronto Raptors defense tonight. The main concern around Dame in the early stages of the season has been his efficiency, but he has proven to exploit vulnerable defenses, including the Timberwolves, Warriors, and Houston, all of whom allowed the All-Pro to score over 30.
Trae Young ($8,800 FD / $9,400 DK)
This price on FD is simply laughable. Trae Young has had back-to-back subpar performances, but the fact that you can get a lead guard on a high-octane offense with a 32% usage rate at this price just does not make sense. In a game where the 76ers will be severely shorthanded due to COVID tracing, Young will not have to deal with a taller, more physically imposing Ben Simmons on defense, and instead will likely see rotational players all night long. Averaging 24.7 PPG despite shooting 40.9% from the field and 28% from deep, the efficiency will improve tonight and I’m all in on Trae Young.
Also Consider:
- Malcolm Brogdon ($8,400 FD / $8,300 DK)
- LaMelo Ball ($7,400 FD / $7,000 DK)
Shooting Guards
Bradley Beal ($10,100 FD / $9,900 DK)
Not sure if there’s anyone more frustrated in the NBA right now. Averaging just over 1.60 FPPM with Russell Westbrook off the floor, Bradley Beal is a candidate to lead the slate in points scored – and yes, that includes Luka Doncic. Rocking a 38.8% usage rate, I will continue to iterate that this is Beal’s team, and with them being the 30th-ranked team in the league in defensive rating, they need to score in bunches every night, and it begins with their star SG.
Devin Booker ($7,600 FD / $7,900 DK)
I mention it all the time that we need to target games with fast pace and poor defensive play. Enter the Washington Wizards, Booker’s opponent tonight, who play at the fastest pace in the NBA and have the league’s worst defensive rating. With Bradley Beal concerned with his offensive play and Booker’s near 30% usage rate, look for the young guard to exploit the Wizards defense all night long.
Tyrese Maxey ($5,200 FD / $4,700 DK)
Listen, let’s make one thing clear right off the bat, this play will be chalky. I usually don’t write up chalky plays – do not expect a repeat performance where Maxey shot the ball 33 times now that Embiid is back in the lineup. Nonetheless, I have interest in the young guard because the 76ers do not have another ball handler with Ben Simmons out of this game. With Shake Milton, Seth Curry, and Tobias Harris all also out, look for Maxey to be one of the safest value plays on this NBA slate.
Also Consider:
- CJ McCollum ($8,900 FD / $8,800 DK)
- Tyrese Haliburton ($5,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
Small Forwards
Brandon Ingram ($8,800 FD / $8,600 DK)
He’s cooled off as of late but it’s certainly not because of the lack of involvement, rather a lack of efficiency. Brandon Ingram can be wildly inconsistent, some night shooting 30% from the field, where others he shoots well over 60% — which one we will get tonight is unknown, but with Dallas running thin on the wings, no one will be able to measure up to BI’s wingspan, making him an intriguing GPP option on this NBA slate. Game PPD
RJ Barrett ($6,900 FD / $7,100 DK)
The sheer volume and minutes are making RJ Barrett in play on essentially almost, if not every NBA slate. Playing a whopping 38.1 MPG, Barrett has been thriving in Coach Thibodeau’s system to the tune of 16.5 PPG and 7.4 RPG. If he can improve on his 37.4% shooting, Barrett will take his game to the next level, something he will be able to achieve here versus a mediocre Charlotte defense.
De’Andre Hunter ($6,200 FD / $6,200 DK)
Playing 34 minutes or more in his past three games, Hunter will be relied upon heavily tonight as the Hawks will be without both Danilo Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic on the wing. Averaging a career high 16.4 PPG, Hunter has really begun to develop into the 3-and-D wing prospects we thought him to be coming out of UVA and is still at a respectable price on both sites.
Also Consider:
- Khris Middleton ($7,800 FD / $8,200 DK)
- Harrison Barnes ($6,200 FD / $6,500 DK)
Power Forwards
Julius Randle ($9,400 FD / $9,600 DK)
The price is getting out of hand now, but Randle remains an elite play for NBA GPPs as he continues to pay off for us. Rocking a 27.6% usage rate this season, Randle is truly blossoming in his contract year, averaging 23.2/11.8/7.1 on 50.9% shooting and has carried the Knicks into a playoff spot thus far. You know I love to attack PJ Washington’s defense, and guess who Randle is facing all night long? Wheels up
Domantas Sabonis ($9,200 FD / $9,300 DK)
You really thought I wouldn’t write him up? If there’s an NBA slate where the Pacers are featured, Sabonis will be here. A 24.3% usage rate has never stopped Sabonis from crushing stat lines, and he is now averaging 21.6/12.6/6.1 on 56.3% shooting, including a whopping 50 points and 36 rebounds in his last two games.
Also Consider:
- Brandon Clarke ($5,600 FD / $6,100 DK)
- Cedi Osman ($5,100 FD / $5,900 DK)
Centers
Joel Embiid ($9,700 FD / $9,800 DK)
Barring any health restrictions, Embiid should carry the 76ers tonight: without the likes of Ben Simmons and Tobias Harris on the floor, his fantasy output has been outright ridiculous; a near 38% usage rate, over 1.8 FPPM, and over 21 FGA per 36 minutes. Lock and load the big man on this NBA slate if you can afford to do so.
Nikola Vucevic ($9,000 FD / $8,900 DK)
Coming off back-to-back double-doubles for the Magic, Vucevic will continue to be on my GPP radar for the foreseeable future. I’ve continued to stress the fact that he is criminally underrated, and with Embiid drawing all of the ownership, if you’re not going down to the target listed below, you need to consider Vuc. Averaging 22/11.1 thus far, Vuc has been as efficient as it gets from the field, shooting 50.9% from the field and 42.1% from deep.
Deandre Ayton ($6,700 FD / $7,300 DK)
Who on Earth is guarding this man tonight? Robin Lopez? Mo Wagner? This price point is the most attractive one on this NBA slate for me thus far, as Deandre Ayton finds himself in a tremendous game environment, featuring no defense and a fast pace, with a glorious matchup in the paint. Despite the low usage rate, Ayton is still averaging a 12.9/11.7 double-double for the Suns and is shooting nearly 59% from the field. Giddy up!
Others to Consider:
- Andre Drummond ($9,900 FD / $9,200 DK)
- Myles Turner ($7,400 FD / $6,200 DK)
- Jusuf Nurkic ($6,400 FD / $6,600 DK)
- Mitchell Robinson ($6,200 FD / $5,500 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model here.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
