DFSGhost 
With the first round of the NBA playoffs concluding yesterday after Houston stole Game 7 from Chris Paul and OKC, every team is now onto the second round, including Denver and LA, who make their series debut in the second game of the slate. These two game slates have typically had a similar pattern: the early game draws the most amount of ownership, and typically everyone priced in the mid-range are between 30% and 45% owned. While there isn’t much wiggle room to separate yourself from an ownership standpoint, lineup correlation is important as ever on these slates.
The Lock: Kawhi Leonard, SF ($10,500 FD / $10,300 DK)
The Klaw is my go-to pay up option on today’s slate; averaging 32.8 PPG across nearly 40 minutes of action in the NBA playoffs thus far, Kawhi has been lights out, as usual, when it matters most. While the Nuggets have a remarkable duo in Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic, they are vulnerable on the wing and Kawhi can exploit his matchup in Game 1. In two games where he played 33 and 36 minutes, respectively, versus Denver this season, Kawhi averaged 28 points and 5 rebounds while shooting over 50% from the field; sporting a 30.1% usage rate in the NBA playoffs, Kawhi will have to be rolling to get the Clippers over the hump in the West.
The Core Gems
Nikola Jokic, C ($9,800 FD / $9,500 DK)
Saying that the Jamal Murray-Donovan Mitchell duel in the first round of the NBA playoffs was entertaining is an understatement; the two young guards flourished versus one another and really gave us arguably the most entertaining series based on their play alone. However, with the Clippers having the luxury of three elite defensive players in Kawhi Leonard, Paul George, and Patrick Beverly, should he play, Murray may be in tough throughout the series no matter who switches onto him – cue The Joker. While his usage rate has decreased slightly as their first round series went on, and now sits at 28.3%, Jokic’s usage was tops in the NBA playoffs before Murray took over in games 4-6. A walking triple-double every time he takes the court, look for Joker to exploit both Zubac and Harrell down low and contribute outside of the paint as well.
Fred VanVleet, SG ($7,700 FD/DK)
With the Raptors down 0-2 in the series to Boston, I’m expecting big games from the backcourt tandem of Kyle Lowry and FVV. Because of his rebounding and defensive contributions, I lean FVV, but both make for elite options in the mid-range of today’s NBA slate. While both Lowry and FVV have been missing crucial shots down the stretch, the volume for both of them, especially the latter, is the key factor to deciding as to why I remain interested in playing them; FVV is averaging 40 DK PPG in the series despite only averaging 15 PPG on 11-of-38 (29%) shooting. Give me all of the shares of a guy averaging over 5x his price whilst shooting 29% from the field all day long – positive regression is coming, and so is a ceiling game.
The Value Gems
Boston/Toronto Value
As mentioned earlier, this first game will continue garnering the most ownership of the two, not only because the opening games have been all NBA playoffs long, but because of the value plays available to us. On the Boston side, the mid-range is loaded with four of five starters in Kemba Walker, Marcus Smart, Daniel Theis, and Jaylen Brown. Moreover, Robert Williams has been electric off the bench when subbing in for Theis and makes for an attractive target if you’re punting the center position. On the Toronto side, OG Anunoby has been having a productive series both scoring and on the glass, in addition to both Marc Gasol and Serge Ibaka being affordable, reliable options.
Clippers/Denver Value
While most will flock to the mid-range/value in the first game, there are still some viable pieces to be had in the late game. For the Clippers, Patrick Beverly is expected to make a return to action and will likely spend most of minutes guarding Jamal Murray; he can get into foul trouble quickly, but at $3,500 on DK, he doesn’t need much. Other viable options that stick out to me are Landry Shamet and Ivica Zubac, who have both been hitting their value with consistency. On the Denver side, Monte Morris and Jerami Grant continue to see big minutes whether they’re starting or coming off the bench, while Torrey Craig has been scoring and rebounding consistently enough to warrant consideration at $3,600 on DK.
A Quick Note on NBA DFS
While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Follow me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost !
