DFSGhost 
With only two game NBA slates set for the remainder of the playoffs, we’ll be switching the style of article from our Gems in the fashion of The Lock, The Core, and The Value, to a strategy article that will help you make three different types of lineups. Within these three strategies, you’ll find the traditional Ghost’s Gems (The Lock, The Core, and The Value) because they’ll all be different depending on which kind of lineup you are constructing. With two-game NBA slates, there is no room for error in cash games, so I’ll identify which option is best at the time of writing, but make sure to look for more updates in Discord.
The Gems: Harden + Antetokounmpo Lineup Construction (GPP)
The first type of lineup construction is fairly simple: you begin by jamming in both Harden and Giannis, followed by your value Gems. On DK, this leaves you with $4,567 per position left to round out your roster, which isn’t too bad considering you have the two players with the highest raw points upside on the slate, let alone the highest ceilings as well. However, in doing so, you’ll need to make sure to grab enough value that your NBA lineup remains consistent with the other two options discussed below from a ceiling standpoint. While most are content with value plays simply not destroying their lineup, a two-game slate value play most carry enough upside to take your lineup to the top of the leaderboards – what I mean by this is that you must feel confident with the possibility of the pairing of a value Gem with Harden/Giannis will outscore the pairing of two mid-tier pricing options; say Jimmy Butler and Khris Middleton. In order to do so, players such as George Hill (PG), Jae Crowder (SF/PF), and PJ Tucker (C) must remain in consideration and will likely be the focal points of your sources of value, while also considering players such as Andre Iguodala and Darius Bazley. My issue with this type of lineup construction on this NBA slate is that you may need to avoid the entire mid-tier price range, which includes attractive options such as Goran Dragic (PG), which, consequently, can hurt you by the end of the night, but the upside in this option is second-to-none for GPPs.
The Gems: ONE of Harden/Antetokounmpo (Preferred Cash Option)
The second type of lineup construction for tonight’s NBA slate is probably my favorite option of the three. While we saw the winning lineup have neither of Harden nor Giannis, this is not likely to occur twice in a row, let alone with the Rockets facing elimination and with Giannis being shut down in Game 1. The combination of Antetokounmpo struggling on offense, going 4-for-12 from the line, getting into early foul trouble, and Middleton/Lopez shooting 50% and 80% from the field, respectively, are a lot of things needed to go right for an Antetokounmpo fade here. With that being said, James Harden and the Houston Rockets are facing elimination, Russell Westbrook is not 100% healthy, and he’ll have roughly the same usage rate as Giannis, if not more. What is key here is that Harden may come in at a third of the ownership should the trend of early games pulling more ownership, and with how bad the Forward position is on DK and SF on FD, I’m expecting Giannis to have way more pull here than Harden. With Harden going for “only” 51.5 DK points despite going 3-for-11 from deep, he has 70+ point upside in a deciding Game 7. If you’re taking this approach and only playing one stud, look to the mid-range to round our your roster rather than stooping too deep into your player pool: as mentioned before, Goran Dragic (PG) would be a key component to this lineup composition on both sites and remains fairly priced, while the other core pieces depend on which stud you’re using. For example, if using Giannis Antetokounmpo, you’ll likely lean on Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo to pair with Goran Dragic (PG). However, if you’re rolling Harden, take a hard look at the OKC trio of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SG), Dennis Schroder (SG), and Chris Paul (PG) – if Harden’s going off for 70+, one of them is keeping the game close. Lastly, the same theory applies to the stud that you’re fading: if choosing Harden over Giannis, you’ll want one or both of Khris Middleton and Brook Lopez, whereas if you’re fading Harden, you can turn to options such as Robert Covington (PF).
The Gems: Fading Both Studs (GPP)
While the third option is the one that took down most GPPs just a few days ago, I’m not expecting a repeat offense. As explained in the previous section, a lot of things need to go write for just one of Giannis Anteotkounmpo or James Harden to not be in the winning NBA lineup, let alone both of them. However, I’m not opposed to building a few lines this way in large field tournaments (150-max) if you’re multi-entering; this lineup should be primarily comprised of mid-range targets discussed in previous sections, while also considering value Gems that have a decent floor, such as Jae Crowder.
A Quick Note on NBA DFS
While there are many different sports and various contests pertaining to DFS along with their respective strategies, we focus on the main approaches to build both reliable cash and GPP lineups for a successful NBA night including pace, the projected over/under, one on one matchups (DVP), a player’s usage rate, and a team’s defensive rating. Make sure to stay active when building NBA lineups – if you cannot be in front of a computer, tablet, or on your phone an hour before lock, do not throw your money away! NBA DFS lineups can change at the blink of an eye and are the most variable compared to any other sport in DFS; players get injured, some sit for load management, and others find themselves on the DNP list for other reasons; any of which can sway your lineup and where to find value. Stay alert on the WinDaily Discord chat to follow along with our updated plays. GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
Make sure to check out Brian’s Picks and Pivots here!
Also check out our projection model and cheat sheet!
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