Christopher Day 
After a very successful first full NBA slate on 12/23, we are back for all the money on Christmas Day. A true NBA tradition, every one of these matchups has high-profile players in them; this not only translates to some interesting lineup builds on both DraftKings and FanDuel, but it also makes the combination of ‘Stars ‘n Scrubs’ all that more attractive. Although it is to a lesser extent than both opening day and the 12/23 slate because we are not on either extreme of a 2-game slate or a 13-game slate, we must still plant our flag somewhere in order to reach the top of the leaderboards – on opening day, it was a condensed player pool, whereas the 12/23 slate was all about identifying which of the 13 games we wanted exposure to. Thus, I will be identifying which players can be in the optimal lineup for both sites and crossing many off my list – if you have any questions, feel free to tag me in Discord, but I will say this, players are not mentioned for a reason.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineups after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,400 FD / $10,000 DK)
I mentioned him in my write-up for last slate and how he was a focal point for our NBA cash lineups. Despite not putting up a ridiculous amount of points, he proved to be a necessity because he was over 80% owned in all cash contests – with 50% of the field getting paid out, you need to roster these extremely high-owned players (we call them chalk for future reference) because if they go nuclear and you did not roster them, you are dead in the water. I had also mentioned that Luka sees an uptick in usage with Porzingis off the floor, increasing from 36.8% to nearly 40% — and that’s exactly what happened. Doncic dropped an efficient 32/8/5 without a single 3-pointer and saw a 39.7% usage rate in 36 minutes. Playing against someone that just signed him to a shoe deal, one his idols, and on Christmas Day has all the narrative – and analytics to back it up – that we need to play Luka in this matchup, but with other studs being the priority for me, he’ll make one of my 3-max lines but I will be slightly underweight compared to the field in my 150-max. Luka. LeBron. Primetime. Christmas Day. You do in fact, love to see it.
Kyrie Irving ($8,900 FD / $8,500 DK)
You wanted a Luka vs LeBron narrative? Check. How about a Kyrie back to Boston narrative? Also, check. The shiftiest man in the NBA was back to his old ways in Steve Nash’s new-look Brooklyn offense and was putting defenders on ice in his season debut. Facing Marcus Smart in this one is no cakewalk, but Kyrie has been victorious in this matchup before from his days in Cleveland, averaging 22.7/2.9/5.6 across 33.4 minutes in 7 matchups versus Smart. Still underpriced on both sites, this game has all the appeal we need to get our star power from it: with the second-highest over/under on the slate at 229.5, Brooklyn’s pace in their season debut will force Boston’s hand in choosing to double only one of Kyrie and KD – lock at least one in your lineups with confidence.
Steph Curry ($8,700 FD / $10,200 DK)
Was it a disappointing season opener for the Warriors? Yes, absolutely; they looked lost on defense without Draymond Green in the lineup, Steph got no help with lackluster play from Andrew Wiggins, and this Brooklyn Nets offense may be even scarier than we anticipated in the offseason. Nonetheless, this +10.5 spread is disrespectful to the greatest shooter of all time and his Warriors. With Pat Connaughton and Bobby Portis being the first to come off the bench for the Bucks, the Warriors will not have to deal with the likes of Caris LeVert and Jarrett Allen in this one like they did on opening day and will be able to keep it close. Milwaukee struggles from deep, giving up the most 3pm in the 2019-2020 NBA season with 1,020, good for 13.97 per game. Yeah, they give up a ton, oh, and Curry isn’t too bad of a 3-point shooter.
Jrue Holiday ($7,000 FD / $7,500 DK)
If you’re not playing Giannis Antetokounmpo in your lineup but are playing Steph Curry, I highly recommend getting one of Jrue Holiday or Khris Middleton. With Steph almost guaranteed to carry the Warriors offense on any given night, someone needs to keep pace with the 2-time NBA MVP and 3-time NBA Champion. Enter the prized offseason acquisition, Jrue Holiday. Coming off an inspiring debut with his new team, Jrue shot an efficient 10/16 from the floor en route to 25/6/3 in 38 minutes – 38 minutes! Not many players will see as much action as Jrue on the entire slate, and that alone makes him worthy to be in our NBA lineups.
Jeff Teague ($5,800 FD / $4,200 DK)
The projection model had him as the fourth-best value on a slate with 300+ players, so I cannot wait to see what it gives us for Jeff Teague tomorrow. He’s a stone cold lock for me on DK tomorrow and makes for an interesting pivot on FD to the chalkier options in the premium price range above him. With Brooklyn really pushing the pace, I’m not expecting many rotations where Brad Stevens runs both Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson on the floor at the same time, rather, he’ll stagger the two to counter the 1-2 punch of Jordan and Allen at the center position for the Nets. Enter Teague, who will be a primary benefactor of an up-pace matchup with Kemba Walker sidelined once again.
Shooting Guards
Paul George ($7,600 FD / $8,700 DK)
I’ll be severely underweight yet again on DK with him being priced with the likes of Kyrie Irving, but his position eligibility on FD makes him an interesting target, especially if you’re not playing Kawhi Leonard. This could be a chance for Paul George to redeem himself from their playoff exit versus these same Denver Nuggets, but PG will certainly be in tough versus the likes of Will Barton on the wing – if he can switch onto MPJ and Gary Harris all game long, look out for another great performance from PG13.
Khris Middleton ($7,400 FD / $7,400 DK)
Similarly to what I said above with regards to Jrue Holiday, if you’re playing Steph Curry and not playing Giannis, you need to consider Middleton to be your main runback. With Golden State being smaller than most teams up the middle in a similar fashion to Boston, Middleton may not duplicate his 14-rebound performance from opening night, but he can certainly reach double digits. Add in the fact that he looked good distributing the ball and scoring on 50% of his field goals, Middleton has sneaky upside amongst the mid-range targets.
Eric Bledsoe ($5,600 FD / $5,600 DK)
At a mere $5,600 on both sites, Eric Bledsoe is trending to be one of my favorite targets tomorrow before running the projections. Starting alongside Lonzo Ball, Bledsoe saw a whopping 34 minutes of action in his Pelicans debut, second to only Brandon Ingram. With Jimmy Butler being preoccupied with both Ingram and Zion, look for Bledsoe to shoulder another heavy workload in the first game of the NBA slate.
Dennis Schroder ($5,000 FD / $6,300 DK)
Dropping a near triple-double in his Lakers debut, Dennis Schroder is severely unpriced on FD and still affordable on DK. While I am not anticipating a duplicate performance because of LeBron and AD having much better games this time around, Schroder’s ability to log heavy minutes and act as a secondary scorer whenever James or Davis leave the floor has him a part of my player pool.
Donte DiVincenzo ($4,500 FD / $4,700 DK)
He won’t wow you with anything other than his scoring ability, but DiVi has strong upside on this NBA slate because of the number of minutes he will log compared to that of other value plays. With Milwaukee playing the entire starting unit 27 or more minutes considering how shallow their bench is, he makes for a premier option on a slate where we’re starving for value to jam in the studs.
Small Forwards
LeBron James ($11,000 FD / $10,000 DK)
Is there much of an explanation as to why we should be considering LeBron James on Christmas Day? This will be Bron’s 15th Christmas Day game, where he currently averages 25.8/7.7/6.9 across 38.3 minutes of action. While both he and AD looked sluggish on opening day, this is a premier bounce back spot with how vulnerable Dallas is on defense without KP in the lineup.
Kawhi Leonard ($9,500 FD / $9,800 DK)
He’s likely going to be the lowest owned stud on the slate, and it’s not because he’s not in a good spot, but rather that others are simply in better ones. By no means do I like to target Denver’s defense, so I will be underweight in my MME pool and he will not make my single entry builds, but should the Nuggets continue to start MPJ on the wing, look for Kawhi to walk all over him on the offensive end of the ball and surprise people on this slate.
Jaylen Brown ($7,500 FD / $7,000 DK)
After a breakout campaign last season, JB started the new season off strong by dropping 33/5/3 across 37 minutes versus the Bucks in a 122-121 victory. With the Brooklyn Nets playing an up-pace, high-tempo type of game, both JB and Tatum are in an environment to thrive in this matchup, especially JB with Durant likely guarding Tatum for the majority of the game. With Jeff Teague being the calming influence on the offensive end, I’m expecting Brown’s volume and efficiency to propel the Celtics to be competitive in this one.
Brandon Ingram ($7,300 FD / $8,300 DK)
Coming off an impressive season that ended with a Most Improved Player award, BI was at it again in the Pelicans debut and scorched the Raptors for 24 points on 10/19 shooting to go along with 9 rebounds and 11 assists. He’ll be in tough if Jimmy Butler lines up on him more often than Zion, but if not, he’ll walk all over anyone else that draws this matchup.
Others to Consider
- Caris LeVert ($5,800 FD – won’t play him on DK)
- Will Barton ($5,200 FD / $6,300 DK)
- Tyler Herro ($5,000 FD / $5,600 DK)
- Joe Harris ($4,300 FD / $5,300 DK)
- Nic Batum ($3,500 FD / $4,500 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600 FD / $10,900 DK)
The back-to-back MVP infamously missed a free throw to send their opening game versus the Celtics to overtime, but just the fact that he led the charge in overcoming a 14-point, 4th quarter deficit shows just how good he is. Nobody will be able to guard him in this matchup and with the Warriors lack of interior defense, Giannis is pricey, but worth it given his potential to put up 70+ should the Warriors keep this one close.
Anthony Davis ($10,600 FD / $10,300 DK)
Sure, he did look awfully inefficient in their debut, but with Dwight Powell and Maxi Kleber slated to guard Anthony Davis, he can bounce back in a huge fashion that you will not want to miss out on. Dallas quietly had one of, if not the best offense in the entire NBA last season and really pushed the pace, slotting in as the third-fastest team in the league, which will bode well for AD in transition. Look for him to stuff the sheet on both ends of the court.
Jayson Tatum ($9,800 FD / $9,300 DK)
Another pay up option on FD, you can see where I am going with the PF position over there – DO NOT pay down whatsoever. Tatum is one of four players I am considering at the position and is truly blossoming into a franchise cornerstone. His defensive ability has been on display since his days at Duke, but with Tatum now dropping stat lines such as the 30/7/2 he did on opening day, his price tag is well deserved in this pace up spot versus KD and company.
Kevin Durant ($8,500 FD / $9,400 DK)
He’s criminally underpriced on FD and needs to be in all of your lineups there. On DK, KD is expensive but benefits from a shallow PF position and showed that he is back from his achilles injury in full force. The 7-footer looked smooth as ever in their opening day thrashing of his former team and will be a cog to the Nets offense all season long.
Centers
Nikola Jokic ($9,700 FD / $10,100 DK)
No safer option at the center position than The Joker and he will STILL go overlooked with Montrezl Harrell garnering most of the ownership. Why? I’m not sure – Joker just dropped 29/14/15 like it was nobody’s business and is a true force to be reckoned with on both ends of the court. Yes, he was mentioned in the 12/23 article for GPPs so I hope you got your exposure, but if you did not, do not make the same mistake twice.
Montrezl Harrell ($5,100 FD / $6,000 DK)
Why he is the chalkiest option at the position, I truly cannot tell you. I said it a million times on 12/23 to NOT play him with AD because if one goes off, the other one; the other day, AD struggled, and Harrell got more run than he typically will. With AD having the softer of matchups here versus Powell/Kleber instead of Ibaka like the other day, I’ll be fine with this in cash but a hard pass in GPPs.
Deandre Jordan ($4,500 FD / $5,600 DK)
The projection model loved Jordan the other day, and he truly came through with 23 fantasy points in only 17 minutes of action, good for 1.35 FPPM. Anticipate him to get more run here with the Celtics keeping this one much closer than the Warriors did and having true centers for him to match up with in Daniel Theis and Tristan Thompson.
Value Gems: Check the projection model here
I’ve said this twice now, but I simply cannot stress it enough: remember to review the NBA projection model and NBA cheat sheet for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
