Christopher Day 
Thirsty Thursday’s edition of the Gems is a big one – we’re combining both cash and GPP plays in the same article, so look for clarification at the end of each blurb on where to play the individual player. A massive NBA slate after yesterday’s 2-gamer – let’s get to it!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 FD price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in these price ranges and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like in this range, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Damian Lillard ($10,000 FD / $10,700 DK)
Dame Dolla entered the NBA ASG break on a tear and he’ll be looking to continue the Trail Blazers’ surge as he awaits the return of teammates CJ McCollum and Jusuf Nurkic from their respective injuries. Entering this one with a whopping 35% usage rate with McCollum out of the lineup, Dame averages a cool 31.1 PPG on 44.7% shooting in these games, taking 22 shots per game, including 11.9 from behind the arc. While the Suns will be a daunting task, the Blazers will only go as far as Dame can take them in this one. GPP Play.
Kyrie Irving ($9,000 FD / $9,600 DK)
Kyrie and Harden will have their hands full tonight versus a disappointing Celtics squad. While they have been wildly underperforming the entire NBA season, the Celtics get the much-awaited return of Marcus Smart tonight, who will prove to be a catalyst on both the offensive and defensive end of the ball. Enter the shifty Irving, who entered the All-Star break with a 30.3% usage rate in his past five games, scoring 25.4 PPG on 44.1% shooting on 22.2 FGA per game. GPP Play.
Trae Young ($8,800 FD / $9,900 DK)
With how much Kyle Lowry will handle on the offensive end tonight, he will be completely gassed on the defensive side of the ball. In addition, Atlanta runs an offense that involves getting Trae Young into favorable switches on a dive to the basket or a pick ‘n roll to Clint Capela – the issue for the Raptors tonight is that he won’t be switching onto Fred VanVleet, rather, he’ll be on Terence Davis or Bembry. Yikes. Sporting a 32.6% usage rate on the season, the Hawks’ push for the playoffs begins right now, and this is as close to a must-win as it gets. GPP Play.
Chris Paul ($7,500 FD / $7,800 DK)
If you’re looking for a mid-tier option on tonight’s NBA slate that is both safe and has enough upside to warrant consideration, CP3 is your guy. While Oladipo is fine in this spot, a perfect pivot to get over the field is Paul, who has been on a tear this season: on a 22.3% usage rate, CP3 has been the anchor to the Suns’ run to glory this season, averaging 16/4.7/8.8 on 48.6% shooting. In a matchup versus Dame and the Trail Blazers, CP3 gets as favorable of a matchup as it gets on this slate; Portland struggles mightily versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 51 FPPG to the position. Cash + GPP Play.
Shake Milton ($4,200 FD / $5,300 DK)
With both Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons missing tonight’s game versus Chicago, Shake Milton will likely slide into the starting 5 and run point for the Sixers tonight. With Tobias Harris getting the largest bump in usage rate, Milton’s rise to is notable, nearing a 31% usage rate in his own right. In his only start this season, Milton dropped a cool 24/1/7 on 61.5% shooting, and gets a favorable matchup versus Chicago tonight, who rank near the bottom of the NBA in FPPG allowed to opposing combo guards. Cash + GPP Play.
Also Consider:
- John Wall ($8,200 FD / $8,200 DK)
- De’Aaron Fox ($8,500 FD / $9,100 DK)
Shooting Guards
James Harden ($11,500 FD / $11,000 DK)
No KD? Yes, James Harden. Simple as that, folks. The salary is top tier, but so is his upside on a large NBA slate that will keep his ownership lower than it should be. While the Celtics do not push the pace to the extent that the Wizards, Warriors, and Timberwolves do, it’s Brooklyn’s 7th-fastest offense in the NBA that will dictate this one. With Boston likely countering with a combination of Robert Williams and Daniel Theis at the ‘5’ with Tatum at the ‘4’ in crunch minutes since Smart is back in the lineup, Harden will have ample opportunity to push the pace in this one, having averaged 29.3/9.7/11 on 51.4% shooting in his last nine games before the break. Cash + GPP Play.
Paul George ($7,800 FD / $8,500 DK)
Will the Warriors keep this one close enough to keep PG13 and Kawhi in the game? I believe so, considering how much LA struggles versus primary ball handlers, and they face a pretty good one tonight in Steph Curry. Having the ASG break to recover from multiple injuries, PG13 will be fresh for tonight’s tilt versus the Warriors, who play at the second-fastest pace in the NBA. Averaging 23.7/6.1/5.4 on 49.9% shooting with a 28.8% usage rate on the season, a big second half begins tonight for PG and the Clippers. GPP Play.
Victor Oladipo ($7,700 FD / $8,200 DK)
With the Rockets now missing Christian Wood, David Nwaba, and Danuel House to injury, in addition to Boogie Cousins being let go off the roster, the entire offense now falls onto John Wall and Victor Oladipo. In 15 games with Houston, Dipo is sporting a 30.3% usage rate and carries a 19.9/4.9/4.7 scoring line on 38.7% shooting – far from impressive, but the workload will be heavy tonight, and we can eat the ownership in cash. Cash Play.
Also Consider:
- Devin Booker ($7,700 FD / $8,000 DK)
Small Forwards
Kawhi Leonard ($9,300 FD / $8,900 DK)
Similarly to what was written for PG13, can the Warriors keep this one close enough to get Kawhi into the 30+ minute range? That’s the primary concern when evaluating PG13 and Kawhi tonight, but there is no denying that they are both mightily underpriced for their respective ceilings. Sporting a 29.8% usage rate on the season, The Klaw can easily drop 30 tonight – but if playing him, you need to stack him with Curry to make it worth your while. GPP Play.
Norman Powell ($7,500 FD / $7,200 DK)
Toronto remains without Pascal Siakam, Fred VanVleet, and OG Anunoby tonight, meaning Stormin’ Norman gets another start here for the offensively starving Raptors. In 3 games before the NBA ASG break with the same key players missing, Norm averaged 30.3 PPG on 59.6% shooting on a 27.4% usage rate. The price is high for someone that is solely reliant on his scoring ability, but facing a Hawks team that cannot play defense this season without De’Andre Hunter in the lineup, he finds himself as a key component to our cash builds. Cash + GPP Play.
Also Consider:
- Kevin Porter Jr. ($4,900 FD / $3,200 DK)
- Danny Green ($4,100 FD / $4,700 DK)
- Matisse Thybulle ($3,500 FD / $3,100 DK)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,300 FD / $11,100 DK)
He’s in play on every NBA slate, but tonight, there is nobody – with the exception of James Harden – that carries the same ceiling as Giannis, including Luka Doncic. Sporting a 35.5% usage rate in his last seven games before the NBA ASG break, Giannis was on a tear that he’ll look to continue tonight, where he was averaging 33/12.6/5.7 on 55.9% shooting, versus a Knicks team that misses the interior defense of Mitch Robinson tremendously. Cash + GPP Play.
Zion Williamson ($9,000 FD / $9,300 DK)
Being the laughingstock of the NBA ASG is never fun, especially when you’re making your first appearance with the best players in the league. How quickly people forget how good Zion has been this season, though, averaging 25.6 PPG to go along with 7.2 RPG and 3.4 APG on a ridiculous 61.4% shooting. Brandon Ingram will always cut into Zion’s ceiling until the Pelicans can figure out who they real alpha of the team is, but this price entices me versus Minnesota struggling interior defense, who allow a ridiculous 48.7 points in the paint per game and over 58 FPPG to opposing big men. GPP Play.
Jayson Tatum ($8,900 FD / $9,400 DK)
Bigs versus Brooklyn? Is Jayson Tatum even considered a big? Tonight, he sure is. Sporting a 30.4% usage rate on the season, Tatum has taken yet another step in his professional career, averaging nearly 25 PPG on 43.7% shooting, taking over 20 shots per game for the Cs. With Brooklyn’s interior defense being the worst in the NBA since the roster overhaul, sky’s the limit for the former Duke Blue Devil tonight. GPP Play.
Tobias Harris ($6,900 FD / $8,100 DK)
Our cash game builds start with Tobias Harris tonight, who will be tasked with shouldering a heavy load on offense for the Sixers in the absence of Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons. Having increases in usage rate, assist rate, and scoring rate with these two out of the lineup, Harris averages just above 1.2 FPPM in a 150+ minute sample size – that’s good enough at his price tags on both sites, and we can eat the chalk and move on to the rest of our NBA lineups. Cash Play.
Others to Consider:
- Jae’Sean Tate ($4,700 FD / $5,500 DK)
Centers
GPP
- Nikola Vucevic ($9,900 FD / $10,400 DK)
- Richaun Holmes ($6,800 FD / $6,500 DK)
Cash
- Kelly Olynyk ($4,500 FD / $5,100 DK)
- Dwight Howard ($3,800 FD / $5,300 DK)
Also Consider:
- Justin Patton ($4,000 FD / $4,900 DK)
- Deandre Ayton ($7,200 FD / $6,900 DK)
Value Gems: Check the projection model.
I will continue to stress the importance of having both the projection model and cheat sheet open when building lineups for a further player pool and to ease a decision between two players, in addition to finding additional value plays.
You can find me on Twitter @DFS_Ghost
