Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/23
Over the past 10-14 days, the NBA has been under siege as far as Covid protocols and missing players. It’s been frustrating, it’s been a challenge, and it’s been a situation that is uncharted waters for all of us. However, one aspect that has been manageable is there have only been 5-7 games on a slate normally. Tonight ratchets the difficulty up with 11 games scheduled as of Wednesday night. Knowing that the slate complexion is likely to change about 187 times, let’s dig into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/23 and start laying out pathways to green.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Pelicans vs. Magic
Overall, this game is going to be a pretty strong source of value. For the Pelicans side, the main piece missing is Jonas Valanciunas who has already been ruled out. Willy Henrangomez is going to be at the front of a lot of people’s lists tonight at just $3,800 on DK. When JoVal is off the floor, Big Willy Style has the third-most minutes of anyone with a 20.5% usage and 1.36 fantasy points per minute. That is monstrous and Jaxson Hayes should see additional run as well but is at a 1.00 fantasy point per minute. As of late, Hernangomez has been the main backup so we should expect him to slide in as the starter.
The Magic are still going to be popular, but two facets were notable. First, Cole Anthony and Wendell Carter Jr. were both out last night and are questionable tonight. That could throw a wrench into the value but also, the value guys had their minutes trimmed a little bit. Chuma Okeke, Gary Harris, and Robin Lopez all made out at about 30 minutes as opposed to 35+ when they had no other options. They’ve since signed backups and they started to spread the minutes a little bit more. If Anthony and Carter Jr. play, we’ll need to tread a little lighter with 2-4 Magic players tonight. If they don’t, the main trio is still in play but don’t expect nearly 40 minutes. Okeke and Lopez had weird games last night as well. Okeke shot 2-11 from 3-point distance but had six steals while Lopez dished ten assists. On a larger slate, Orlando could turn into a secondary target.
Hawks vs. Sixers
I’m a little less interested in the Philly side of the equation since Tyrese Maxey and Furkan Korkmaz are both back tonight. Joel Embiid should destroy the interior of Atlanta but his salary has come up to uncomfortable proportions. Instead, the Hawks are the main focus like they were last night. Cam Reddish is almost certainly going to be utter chalk after a 50 DK point game last night and he played 42 minutes. We shouldn’t expect that to change much and he took 23 shots. While he won’t shoot 6-10 from deep tonight, 30 DK is 6x return and 38-40 is well in play. With Trae Young, Clint Capela, and Kevin Huerter off the floor this year, Reddish is at 0.88 fantasy points per minute. I’m not going to be overly surprised to see Bogdan Bogdanovic sit out on the back-to-back either. He only played 22 minutes in his first game in a month and the Hawks had 11 bodies available with him last night.
John Collins and Gorgui Dieng are likely going to be fades for me with Joel Embiid on the other side of this game and Delon Wright could wind up the same way, at least in GPP. It’s an accomplishment to play 39 minutes and score 25 DK points while shooting eight times. We have enough options to consider others so my main targets are Reddish and perhaps Lance Stephenson. That’s right, I said it. He played 22 minutes (possibly more if Bogdanovic sits) and racked up 18 DK points with one real point and 0-4 from the floor. Let’s see exactly who’s around for the Hawks because they can get bit by Covid today as well.
Bucks vs. Mavericks
If you’re not into building with a super expensive stud, you can sub in Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and potentially Jalen Brunson in this game on the high end. For the Bucks side, Giannis and Bobby Portis remains out and on the year, Holiday and Middleton have usage rate over 36% and fantasy points per minute of at least 1.29. Now there is a chance that Middleton could sit because he’s been dealing with a balky knee and played 28 minutes last night. If that’s the case, it opens the door more for Grayson Allen (who is supposed to be active tonight) and Jordan Nwora. It’s possible DeMarcus Cousins could have a seat as well, although he did play back-to-back recently and played 27 minutes in the second game after playing 16 in the first.
Dallas is the team that could be very appealing because they are bare bones. If Kristaps Porzingis remains out, Brunson will play another 40 minutes along with Dorian Finney-Smith and both players are fairly priced. Without Luka and KP on the floor, DFS and Brunson both have fantasy points per minute of at least 0.93 and that’s with Tim Hardaway Jr. active (which he is not tonight). The last game also saw Sterling Brown log 32 minutes for 32.8 DK points. He’s well in play and that trio would be the focus from Dallas for me tonight, provided KP remains out. If he’s in, I may back off this team outside of DFS because the salaries are up there.
Grizzlies vs. Warriors
There’s not much to talk about on the Grizzlies side as far as missing players but Ja Morant is $8,600. He played 28 minutes in his return so we should expect around 32-33 tonight and on the season, he has a usage of 31.8% and 1.34 fantasy points per minute. Even when he and Dillon Brooks share the floor, he’s at 1.20 and Ja is simply too cheap.
The Warriors side is going to offer a lot of value. They are missing Andrew Wiggins, Jordan Poole, Damion Lee, and Andre Iguodala. The last game saw Lee play 30 minutes and Iggy was at 24, so there are a lot of minutes to fill at this point. Otto Porter really jumps off the page here as he played 30 minutes and likely should play more tonight. Without just Wiggins and Poole, Porter has 0.96 fantasy points per minute and I think he’s going to be popular. The sneaky plays could be Jonathan Kuminga and Nemanja Bjelica. If Porter is popular, these two could be much less sound Kuminga started the last game before leaving six minutes in with a back issue. When Bjelica has gotten minutes, he’s been strong with 1.14 fantasy points per minute, and that savings from Porter is fantastic. With so many minutes to cover, I think he has to play at least 22-25.
It also has to be said that despite some putrid game logs lately, Steph Curry has a 35.8% usage and 1.59 fantasy points per minute on the season without Wiggins and Poole. He’s shooting 4% lower from the field in total this season than his career marks and the longer he goes without a nuclear game means he’s one game closer to going for 40 raw points. Memphis is 16th in defensive rating and both teams are in the top 12 in pace. The Grizzlies are also 0.4% away from leading the league in 3-point FG% allowed.
Teams to Monitor
Nuggets – Nobody is injured, but Nikola Jokic is the best big man in the league and he faces the Charlotte front court that we’ve hammered all year long with talented bigs.
Pacers – Malcolm Brogdon left last game with an Achilles issue after just eight minutes. Chris Durate could be a nice value piece but I think I’ll have other options.
Pistons – They are missing Cade Cunningham, Jerami Grant, and Kelly Olynyk. We could be looking at Frank Jackson and Hamidou Diallo as value pieces but the game environment is average, so I would not go overboard with all the other options.
Knicks – This team is just about Kemba Walker because he’s still under $6,000. Derrick Rose had ankle surgery and they are still missing basically every guard they have. Kemba has gone from not playing at all to 37 and 40 minutes played because Thibs Gonna Thibs. He’s hit over 40 DraftKings points in both games and has 0.94 fantasy points per minute without Rose on the floor this year.
Wolves – They are still missing Anthony Edwards and Patrick Beverly, among others. Still, playing in Utah is brutal and the blowout risk is tangible.
Spurs – Dejounte Murray against Russell Westbrook perimeter defense. That is all.
Spend Up Options
Nikola Jokic, Steph Curry, Joel Embiid, Dejounte Murray, LaMelo Ball, Ja Morant, Jalen Brunson (pending KP), Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton
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