Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/2
There are only five games this evening and hopefully, they aren’t quite as nuts as Wednesday was. We do have key pieces already ruled out but it’s always easier to deal with that the night before. We have plenty to talk about for just five games in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/2 so let’s get moving. It’s Wet Wednesday – Let’s Ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Chris Paul ($8,600 DK/$8,400 FD)
With the news that Devin Booker is out for a little bit with a hamstring injury, Paul should probably be over $9,000 right now. We saw him flash 50 DraftKings point upside in this past game. This is a spot with some legitimate blowout concern against the Pistons and it’s pretty easy to get to Dejounte Murray, but we talk about him all the time. CP3 has a 22.8% usage rate and 1.34 fantasy points per minute with Booker off the court this year and while that comes with a 63.7% true shooting rate, Paul is still as strong play. He’s shooting 51.6% as the ball-handler in the pick-and-roll and Detroit is 13th in points allowed in that play type.
Derrick Rose ($4,800 DK/$5,500 FD)
In the first game that Kemba Walker was out of the rotation for the Knicks, both Rose and Immanuel Quickley played at least 34 minutes. You could argue Quickley is the better play on FD since he’s $1,300 cheaper and both look similar. They both have usage of at least 20.9% (Rose is at 23.2%) and fantasy points per minute of at least 0.90 (Rose is 1.05). Quickley even has a better true shooting rate and Rose has a higher assist rate. The Bulls are seventh defensive rating but they’re 13th in pace, which is plenty in this matchup if Rose is going to see those amount of minutes.
Honorable Mention
Murray
Tyus Jones/De’Anthony Melton
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($8,100 DK/$7,900 FD)
We know that Josh Giddey will be out for the Thunder tonight and that means SGA is about to shoulder almost the entire load. His usage rate climbs to 34.2% and the fantasy points per minute are at 1.26 and that usage rate jumps by 6.6%. Memphis is 11th in pace and still 30th in defensive rating while OKC counters with ranking 14th in pace. This should be an up-tempo (if potentially sloppy game) but Memphis struggles defensively. An interesting facet is the play type data for SGA. He’s second in scoring in isolation this year at 7.2 points while Memphis allows the ninth-most points. However, that has been without Dillon Brooks for most of the season. He is the best defender on the team so this is a pretty fun matchup. There may be a case to be made to play SGA in cash, and then fade in GPP if you think he can’t get to 50 DK against Brooks.
Anfernee Simons ($4,900 DK/$5,200 FD)
Not only is Damian Lillard going to be out for a bit, but Simons might get an even bigger bump tonight. Murray from the Spurs would be expected to guard C.J. McCollum and that’s a downgrade for most offensive players. Maybe not a huge bump, but McCollum is approaching $9,000. Simons has yet to hit $5,000 on DraftKings and he fits into any build. He already has a 24.7% usage and 0.96 fantasy points per minute. If McCollum struggles to find a shot, that should go well over 1.00. The minutes were spiked at almost 36 last game and he hit 29 DraftKings points despite shooting 5-14 from the field. San Antonio is also playing at a top-five pace, so everything points to Simons having a big game.
Honorable Mention
Alec Burks
Alex Caruso
Value Spot
Small Forward
Dillon Brooks ($7,000 DK/$5,800 FD)
Right back to the well. He let us down last game but the Blazers are terribly defensively as well. These teams are 29th and 30th in defensive rating. That is as bad as it gets as far as matchup and both teams are in the top 17 in pace. The usage for Brooks without Ja Morant is crazy high at 34.4% with 1.22 fantasy points per minute. Should he have the usage that high with the talent around him? Probably not. It also doesn’t matter because that’s the way it is. He took 18 shots in 33 minutes and only hit five, so when the shot falls it’s going the be a big game for him. This would check the box of an environment that can create the chances for Brooks to take advantage of.
This position remains horrid, so let’s see what the day brings. I am considering Lu Dort (especially if SGA is having a tough night against Brooks), I may roll Burks in that spot, and then possibly Khris Middleton or Zach LaVine in a pinch but I wouldn’t be excited there.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($12,000 DK/$11,000 FD)
Provided Giannis plays on a back-to-back (not a huge concern but it’s possible), he should have his way against the Raptors interior. OG Anunoby remains out so that leaves Precious Achiuwa and Scottie Barnes to deal with Giannis inside. Sure, good luck with all that. Toronto is only 14th in points allowed in the paint but Giannis isn’t just a paint guy, obviously. He has a usage of 34.4% and 1.70 fantasy points per minute, which is silly that we’re sometimes on the fence about playing him. This is a smaller slate so raw points become more and more important, and Giannis has the highest odds of being the top scorer on the slate. He’s also the only player on DraftKings over $10,000 so it will be interesting to see how the field treats him.
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,100 DK/$6,900 FD)
Triple J might be a bit too pricey for my blood tonight but he does have some upside, even if it’s not a stable facet of his game. His usage flies up the board to 31.3% without Morant on the floor and the Thunder provides a strong matchup. The fouls are a bit less of a concern considering the lack of big men for OKC and they are dead last in paint rebounds and 20th in points allowed. JJJ is not the traditional center by any stretch but he has seen minutes at the five and there’s nobody capable of hanging with him down low. He can also travel away from the basket and is hitting the 3-point shot almost 35% of the time. He and Brooks will be expected to carry the squad for the foreseeable future.
Honorable Mention
Julius Randle
Value Spot
Center
Nikola Vucevic ($9,300 DK/$8,800 FD)
Deandre Ayton ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD)
Honorable Mention
Jusuf Nurkic
Jakob Poeltl
Value Spot
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