Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/18
Well, that Friday in the NBA was out of this world. It was utter chaos throughout the entire day but Ghos and I are committed to bringing you guys the best content possible. In that vein, we’re going to try a different format temporarily until things settle down in the NBA. The league has made clear they want teams to sign players from the couch as opposed to moving games around, so we’re in it for the next little bit. For now, we’ll be highlighting game environments and situations to monitor. I simply cannot stress this enough –
The Discord is the most vital piece of content right now and if you haven’t joined, please come in.
Even if you don’t want to send messages, that’s more than fine. The quickest way to get the news to you is the Discord right now. We can relay important news in seconds because oftentimes it comes in the hour or so leading up to lock. NBA DFS is unlike any other sport in that the injury reports change often, especially right now. We have a six-game slate tonight that is already jam-packed with news, so let’s ride with NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/18!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Magic vs. Nets
Magic
After losing Wendell Carter Jr. last night to a knee injury that looked significant, the Magic could really be struggling. They had to sign four G-League players yesterday just to get to tip-off, but they were without Cole Anthony. Assuming Anthony can play and no other player exits the protocols, Orlando would have Anthony, Chuma Okeke, Robin Lopez, Gary Harris, and Franz Wagner as the primary five players. Only three others (Hassani Gravett, Mychal Mulder, and B.J. Johnson) played over 20 minutes last night. Given the salaries involved, the entire starting five would be in play and strong targets. Okeke especially will be heavy chalk because he went for 50+ DraftKings points at 45% rostership last night. I would be looking to play a minimum of two Magic players and may go up to 3-4, pending the rest of the slate. These guys would be looking at nearly 40 minutes and Anthony should flirt with a 35% usage rate. Meanwhile, Wagner and Okeke should be taking 18+ shot attempts and the Brooklyn defense is going to be nonexistent with half their roster out for this game.
Nets
Let’s start with who we know is playing and those who are out. Kevin Durant and Patty Mills have been ruled out, which is somewhat surprising just with who is available for Brooklyn. Now, it’s possible that they know players could test out of the protocol and that would change the complexion of the roster. For now, Blake Griffin, Kessler Edwards, and Cam Thomas are the only three that have played minutes in the last game that do not carry an injury designation. With Durant out, Thomas could turn into the gunner here and just shoot whenever he has an opening. Nic Claxton and David Duke Jr. are questionable but it’s tough to see how they don’t play at this point. With the Magic legitimately rostering G-League players as well, we can target Thomas, Griffin, and Edwards for sure. Duke Jr. and Claxton would certainly fit in and it’s hard to even gauge the usage rates for anyone. Durant and James Harden run this team and the majority of these guys weren’t seeing the floor. One thing for sure is they will have extremely limited bodies to play and I believe we need a minimum of four players from this game.
Knicks vs. Celtics
Knicks
It could wind up being Miles McBride SZN in this game. Derrick Rose, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, Kevin Knox, Obi Toppin, and Quentin Grimes are either out or questionable. That would leave the Knicks with Julius Randle, Alec Burks, and Evan Fournier as the core three starters alongside the duo of Nerlens Noel and Mitchell Robinson. We know Thibs Gonna Thibs and he will run these guys into the ground. The starting five is likely to play a minimum of 35 minutes. Once again, the samples with even a couple of players out are so small it’s hard to read. Randle had over 42% usage but we’re talking about a sample under 20 minutes. For McBride, it’s 28.1% and these are mostly believable, even if they come down by 5% or so. McBride is so cheap that 30 minutes of even a 20% usage would make plenty of sense. Randle still comes off as expensive, and I think I’d mostly use New York for value and anchor to a different stud. Well, stud may be downgraded tonight since the elite salary range is so barren but the idea remains the same.
Celtics
Boston is down multiple rotation players with Al Horford and Dennis Schroeder being the players that log the most minutes. That meant Jayson Tatum played a whopping 42 minutes last night and Robert Williams, Marcus Smart, and Jaylen Brown joined him with at least 33 minutes played. Schroeder would have a shot to play tonight because his illness was not Covid, but we’ll see if that happens or not. If he’s off the floor again, Tatum has a usage rate of 35.7% and 1.31 fantasy points per minute while Brown matches with a 32.8% usage in a much shorter sample. They are in flux but Tatum is under $10,000 and there is a strong chance Brown could sit on a back-to-back with only two games under his belt with the hamstring injury. It could be the Tatum show solo or with Schroeder as a sidekick, while Williams is a strong mid-range target at center. These two games could make up the bulk of the player pool with how thin the four teams could be.
Teams To Monitor
Warriors
They had suggested Steph Curry was going to sit the Pacers game earlier in the week. He was too close to breaking the 3-point record to actually do it, so there is the chance he could be out tonight. However, Golden State lost Jordan Poole to protocols so it’s unclear if they’ll sit Steph now. If they do, get ready for chalk Andrew Wiggins night, and honestly… I may play him without Poole and Curry if that turns out to be the case. Somehow, Wiggins only has 43 minutes on the court with those two off but he has a 33.6% usage rate and he’s under $7,000.
Jazz
They played last night so Mike Conley is a candidate to sit tonight since he played over 30 minutes last night. If he does, Donovan Mitchell, Joe Ingles, and Jordan Clarkson would be on the radar. When he’s off, Mitchell is at a 35% usage and 1.37 fantasy points per minute while Clarkson is almost at 27%. It does need to be said that Ingles has had a rough season to some extent and his fantasy points per minute are just 0.68 on a 50.4% true shooting rate. Still, $3,800 could be useful although I’d put all the other value ahead of him.
Bucks
If Khris Middleton, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Bobby Portis all remain out, Jrue Holiday will continue to be a lock in my lineups. He went for over 40 real points last night and I tend to doubt DeMarcus Cousins plays tonight. That means Jordan Nwora, Grayson Allen, and Pat Connaughton would be in line for close to 35 minutes or more. Even for a six-game slate, the player pool might be very condensed tonight.
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