Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/16
We are back to a small slate tonight with just four games but like Tuesday, there is one team that is going to be the focal point of our lineups once again. The Brooklyn Nets need to take up 2-4 spots in the lineup so we’ll be breaking them down and then a shorter positional breakdown. Let’s get to work to cover our bases in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/16 and forge the path the green screens once again!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Brooklyn Nets – The first move for tonight’s slate is to go put Kevin Durant in your lineups. Go ahead, I’ll wait. Lock him in and come back, then we’ll discuss everyone else.
In the past two games without James Harden, Durant has scored over 70 DraftKings points and he’s played over 40 minutes. On the season without Harden, Durant has a 36% usage and 1.73 fantasy points per minute. It really is that simple, and Philly has nobody to defend him. With how shorthanded they are, Brooklyn will have no option to not play Durant for another 40 minutes.
It would appear the trio of David Duke, Patty Mills, and Blake Griffin would be the next players in consideration. All three of these guys played 30 minutes or more and scored over 30 DraftKings points. Duke managed to eclipse 40 DK despite shooting just 4-13. Mills feels a little pricey in this one even though he took 20 shots, as he had to shoot 50% from deep to score 30 points. He did virtually nothing else and at $6,600, an off shooting night could destroy the lineup.
The last trio of Nic Claxton, Kessler Edwards, and Cam Thomas gets tougher. Firstly, I am not very likely to use Claxton if Embiid plays for Philly in a back-to-back. Embiid could get him to foul right off the court, but if Biid sits that’s a different story. Edwards played 38 minutes to 22 for Thomas, but Edwards shot 7-12 while Thomas shot 2-10. If the shooting turns around, I don’t wonder if Thomas gets more minutes in this game but both seem very risky.
Priority – Durant, Duke, Griffin, Thomas, Edwards, Mills, Claxton (unless Embiid sits)
Point Guard
Derrick Rose ($6,300 DK/$6,200 FD)
With Durant over $12,000, we need some cheaper players at each position and Rose is still affordable for his current role. As long as R.J. Barrett remains out, Rose should be in line for another 32 minutes with a 23.5% usage and 1.06 fantasy points per minute. We saw last night that Houston is miserable defensively and they play at the fastest pace in basketball. Rose has taken 16 and 13 field goal attempts in each of the past two games and the matchup is pristine with the minutes to back him.
Honorable Mention
Tyrese Maxey
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Cade Cunningham ($8,600 DK/$7,900 FD)
It’s a bit more likely to play him on FD as opposed to DK, but Cunningham is starting to be a little more consistent and the Pistons are still missing Jerami Grant. With him and Kelly Olynyk off the floor, Cunningham has a 31.7% usage rate and 1.17 fantasy points per minute with a 50.8% true shooting rate. It is only a 114-minute sample size, but this is a number one pick and the franchise player. His shot is still not trustworthy, so there is not a safety net at this salary. It’s possible to have big games against Malcolm Brogdon of the Pacers, just ask Jrue Holiday.
Honorable Mention
Bradley Beal
Value Spot
Small Forward
This will be one of – Durant, Duke, Kevin Knox, or Deni Avdija since Spencer Dinwiddie is expected to be out for the Wizards tonight. I’m not using anyone else as things stand because I’m not spending up here outside of Durant, so a cheaper option to offset his salary makes sense.
Power Forward
Alperen Sengun ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD)
With Christian Wood likely out again tonight, it’s Sengun Night Part 2: Revenge of the Goat. For some reason unknown to anyone with any amount of basketball IQ, Sengun played just 28 minutes last night and only had nine minutes through the first half. He did end up playing 28 minutes and this man went for 46.8 DK points. That’s the kind of rate that Jokic puts up. I’m not here to say that he’s locked in for 40 DraftKings again, but he’s still very affordable and he paid the field last night. Wood, Kevin Porter Jr., and Jalen Green are all still out. In that scenario, Sengun has played 199 minutes and has 1.20 fantasy points per minute and a 21.4% usage. Play the man.
Honorable Mention
Griffin
Value Spot
Center
Deandre Ayton/JaVale McGee – I don’t think Ayton sits out but the broadcast repeatedly said it was not the plan for Ayton to play 44 minutes. Maybe the Suns let him sit but even if they don’t, McGee is still in play because it could be more of a split
Myles Turner
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