Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/11
We have just six games tonight and there is already a litany of players ruled out. Before we get into the slate, I just want to extend a thank you to Ghost for covering the large slates this week. He’s a beast and it was a massive help to get NFL Game by Game out this week. Now let’s dive into the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/11 and figure out what paths we need to take to see green screens tonight!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guard
Kyle Lowry ($7,700 DK/$6,700 FD)
Lowry feels like he’s nearly a lock button on FanDuel but he is plenty appealing on each site. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo remain out for the Miami Heat and the veteran played 39 minutes in this past game. While Tyler Herro has the usage lead at 31.3% when the two main cogs are off the floor, the fantasy points per minute are nearly identical with Lowry sitting at 1.04. He has a 39.4% assist rate with both teams short-handed, we should expect another huge workload here.
De’Anthony Melton ($5,100 DK/$5,800 FD)
I will likely have no less than three Memphis Grizzlies in my lineups tonight since they will be without Dillon Brooks again, who is in the Covid protocols. Considering Ja Morant is also still out, Memphis is down a lot of firepower right now. With those two off the court, Melton is second on the team with 1.15 fantasy points per minute and he’s going to play 30 minutes again. The salary difference between him and Tyus Jones likely makes Melton popular, but that’s more than fine for me. Houston plays at the fastest pace in the league and is on a back-to-back, making this a game to target with a bullet point.
Honorable Mention
Dejounte Murray
Steph Curry (one lineup with him when he’s this close to the record for the narrative)
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Darius Garland ($7,800 DK/$7,600 FD)
While the price may seem a bit high, let’s not pretend that there isn’t a ceiling for Garland to hit. Sacramento is a top-eight team in pace and cannot defend as they sit 26th in defensive rating. That’s always a wonderful combination for the opposition and Garland leads the Cavaliers in usage rate this year at 27.2%. His fantasy points per minute are 1.06 and he’s also leading in assist rate at 32.8%. Both teams played last night but the Cavs had the luxury of a blowout, so they didn’t need to run the starters as long. The Kings allow the third-most points to the pick-and-roll ball-handler on the season and Garland averages seven points scored per contest.
Desmond Bane ($7,200 DK/$6,600 FD)
Part of me can’t believe we’re talking about Bane over $7,000 but he clearly deserves it with the situation at hand. We mentioned before that the Rockets play at a breakneck pace and the Grizzlies are 13th so the total is going to be high. Both teams are also in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and Bane has a 27.1% usage rate when Morant and Brooks aren’t on the floor. He’s also only at a true shooting rate of 48.6% so there is room for improvement. The Rockets allow the fourth-highest frequency of 3-point attempts and that’s in the wheelhouse for Bane. He’s shooting over 40% from beyond the arc and I’ll be betting his 3-point prop almost surely tonight.
Honorable Mention
Zach LaVine (a bit pricey)
Derrick White
Value Spot
Small Forward
To be frank, this position is flat awful tonight. I’m already looking at eating it with just a punt play. Just look at DraftKings where after LaVine, the most expensive option is Jae’Sean Tate at $6,800. It’s ugly. I’m hoping for a value spot to open but one player I will point out is Garrison Matthews for the Rockets. It feels like he’s due to bite me but he’s been lethal from deep lately. Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green remain out for Houston, but the metrics still aren’t kind for Matthews with a 14.7% usage and 0.71 fantasy points per minute. The 3-point shot is the great equalizer at this salary on DraftKings and the Grizzlies have allowed the third-highest field goal rate from deep. If Matthews is the last man in, I can live with it. Hopefully, something pops up during the day.
Honorable Mention
Harrison Barnes
Bojan Bogdanovic (these two tell you where we’re at for the position)
Value Spot
Power Forward
Jaren Jackson Jr. ($7,500 DK/$6,600 FD)
This is not to say no other Grizzlies are in play, but JJJ will round out the players that have the most attention for me. He’s not been a Win Daily favorite in the past but he’s cut back on the fouls this season. Last season he average 5.9 per 36 minutes and this year it’s down to 4.5 which is significant. Triple J has also been a monster in this situation for Memphis with a 34.4% usage rate and 1.32 fantasy points per minute. and he can pop out to the 3-point line to hit that shot as well. The game environment does him a lot of favors and if he continues to stay out of foul trouble, he makes for a strong play tonight.
This position is much like the SF position in that the options are slim to none. Jackson could wind up being stone chalk tonight.
Honorable Mention
Draymond Green
Evan Mobley (I prefer a center we’ll talk about)
Value Spot
Center
Nikola Jokic ($11,900 DK/$11,200 FD)
To the surprise of nobody, Jokic is in our crosshairs yet again. I mentioned this in the Discord but one of the reasons he’s an option every single game is the Denver Nuggets need him to do everything for their team. Michael Porter Jr. isn’t coming back until next season at the earliest. Jamal Murray is not close to returning yet. For Denver to have any hopes of clinging to the playoffs until Murray hits the floor, Joker has to be the entire team. That’s reflected by his 1.82 fantasy points per minute and 33.9% usage rate on the year. We just saw him drop a triple-double against this team and he can do that every night. San Antonio is 12th in points allowed in the paint but Jokic scores the second-most points in the post-up game and they can’t defend him down low.
Jarrett Allen ($8,300 DK/$8,500 FD)
I love Allen tonight and he’s averaging a little over 30 minutes in back-to-back situations this season. He leads the league in paint touches at 12.9 and he’s second in points scored in the paint to go along with ranking in the top eight in rebound chances per game. Sacramento is 28th in rebounding in the paint and they rank sixth in points allowed in the paint. However, Richaun Holmes is still out. Who’s defending Allen tonight? Alex Len? Tristan Thompson? Please. Vernon Carey Jr. of the Hornets went 7/2/0 in jus 11 minutes last night. Cleveland is not playing Allen for 11 minutes tonight and he is going to wreck the interior of this defense. A bonus could be De’Aaron Fox takes the third-most field goal attempts from drives to the basket this season. Allen (and Mobley) are both in the top 20 in blocks per game with Mobley sitting seventh and Allen at 19th.
Honorable Mention
Joel Embiid
Rudy Gobert
Value Spot
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