Antonio D'Arcangelis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/09
After one of the most bizarre slates of the season so far, we thankfully have just three games to focus on tonight. That certainly helps make the choices far more condensed and we don’t have 26 teams to track this evening. We will need some more information on certain teams before we can full build but let’s talk about it in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/09 to find paths to green!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: Should rest candidates, such as Mike Conley, end up missing tonight’s game for their respective teams, it will be a two-studded lineup for me, especially with the value we already have with San Antonio missing Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson.
Adam: That likely depends on the Utah Jazz, Philadelphia 76ers, Memphis Grizzlies, and Denver Nuggets. Those four teams played last night so they are prime suspects to sit someone. If they are all full strength, it could be more of a balanced slate.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: Dejounte Murray. He’s averaging a near triple-double over his last 8 games with a 26.6% usage rate and logging over 35 minutes per contest. The 20.1/8.9/9.6 scoring line shows just how much he’s involved on the offensive side of the ball and on the glass, but he’s also been an All-NBA defender, as usual.
Adam: Nikola Jokic. He’s played three games in a back-to-back situation and he’s averaging 28.3 points, 10.7 rebounds, and 6.7 assists. On the season with the players missing that Denver still is without, he has a 33.6% usage and 1.83 fantasy points per minute. The matchup against Jakob Poeltl of the Spurs doesn’t do anything to slow him down either.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: Russell Westbrook. I’ll keep this one simple if LeBron and AD both play in this game, I won’t roster Russ.
Adam: The easy answer continues to be Russell Westbrook as long as the big three for LA is active. However, I’ll add Joel Embiid just because A. I prefer Jokic, B. It’s a tougher than average spot against the Jazz and C. Embiid has only played one back-to-back and he only played 30 minutes for a 19/9/3 line in that game.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: A Spurs mini-stack of Dejounte Murray and one of McDermott/Walker/Forbes/Young/Bates-Diop will be in the winning lineup. Check the model and use the appropriate value plays.
Adam: Joker and I believe we’ll get a value piece from one of the teams I mentioned above. If they do not, the Spurs are likely going to be without Keldon Johnson. If a player like Thad Young draws the start, that’s going to be hard to not look at considering he’s $3,300 on DraftKings.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Dejounte Murray and the Spurs take down Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets in what will be their first meeting over the next three days, thanks to Murray’s 25-point triple-double.
Adam: Dejounte Murray and Jokic both have triple-doubles with Joker going for another 30+ points.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
