Jared Levitt NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/07
Fortunately, the Hornets are not on the slate tonight so hopefully, we get a relatively normal slate. What does stand out is the number of big names on such a short slate but as of now, we have no value to jam them in. It should create an interesting dynamic so let’s answer some questions in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 12/07!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: Unless more value plays open it throughout the day when injury reports get released, I’ll be going with one stud.
Adam: It doesn’t look like there is going to be an overwhelming amount of value, so it will likely be mostly balanced with just one stud player despite the star power on the slate. Of course, this is the NBA and that can change very quickly.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: I’ll let the field worry about which combination of Luka Doncic, James Harden, and Kevin Durant they want to play; give me Dejounte Murray against the Knicks on the second half of a back-to-back/
Adam: Lock is a difficult word on a slate that includes Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Anthony Davis, Jayson Tatum, and LeBron James. However, with every dollar in salary being important as we stand, playing Dejounte Murray at $9,500 is very appealing. Just from the fantasy points per minute respect, Murray is at 1.33. Harden and KD are at 1.32 and 1.34 and the only other player that is higher than Murray is Luka at 1.46. That extra $1,400 on DraftKings could be very important. Murray has only played one back-to-back so far but he played almost 35 minutes so that is not a concern.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: Should both LeBron James and Anthony Davis play, there’s a 0% chance I roster Russell Westbrook tonight in any format.
Adam: Russell Westbrook. He’s the player that most “doesn’t belong” in the elite salary range as long as the big three for the Lakers is active. He hasn’t exceeded 47 DraftKings points in the past three games and I don’t believe any other player in this range has a floor of 28 DraftKings points in 36 minutes.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: Dejounte Murray and Derrick Rose. With Tom Thibodeau reportedly looking to make changes to the Knicks lineup, I expect him to rely heavily on a player whom he had been with for six seasons in Chicago and now reunited in New York.
Adam: Malik Monk and Murray. For the Lakers, Carmelo Anthony is questionable which would help Monk a little bit as the Lakers would need that shooting even more. On a slate that is currently starved for value, Monk stands out a bit with 33 and 29 minutes in the past two games and Boston is ninth in the frequency of 3-point shots given up. Monk is shooting 36.8% but he’s been hot lately, 50% in the last four games.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Dejounte Murray leads the NBA slate in scoring.
Adam: Doncic and Harden have dueling triple-doubles with the Mavericks pulling out a close win and Harden not hitting value on his salary again.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
