Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/24
We have a massive slate since tomorrow is Thanksgiving and the NBA is off, so 26 teams play tonight. This is always sound advice but tonight more than ever – do not play if you can’t be around for news until the slate locks. The slate before Thanksgiving could be late scratch city, so be warned. With that said, we have a ton of work in front of us in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/24 so it’s Wet Wednesday – Let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
Point Guards
Dejounte Murray ($9,600 DK/$9,700 FD)
Murray should be in for a big game here as the Spurs are eighth in pace and the Hawks are 27th in defensive rating this year. Murray is still under a 49% true shooting rate so he has room to improve on his 1.29 fantasy points per minute. The usage is at 25.5% and Murray is third in assists coming from drives to the basket. Atlanta is 13th in points allowed in the paint and the Hawks are 10th worst in points allowed to the pick-and-roll ball-handler. Murray takes the fourth-most field goal attempts per game in that play type and he’s not really expensive enough yet.
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,600 DK/$7,700 FD)
Brogdon has a strong chance of being chalky and I don’t care. He’s still in a great spot tonight and even though he scored just 38 DraftKings points last game, that came in just 28 minutes. Brogdon has a 27% usage on the season and he’s sixth in drives to the basket. The Lakers defense is 28th in points allowed in the paint and Brogdon is going to give them plenty of issues as the pick-and-roll ball-handler, seeing as he runs that play type 44.6% of the time. I’m leaving the options a little bit open because the complexion of this slate is going to change during the day.
Honorable Mention
LaMelo Ball (FD price is absurd)
Ricky Rubio (especially if Darius Garland is out)
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Bradley Beal ($9,300 DK/$8,500 FD)
Maybe this is more of a FanDuel play but the price is so cheap in a spot we love to attack with guards that I may get suckered into Beal again. He’s got some serious positive regression coming at some point. The true shooting rate is just 51.7% and that’s not indicative of his talent. Beal has been at 57.9% at a minimum in the past three seasons and Beal still has a 32.2% usage and 1.13 fantasy points per minute despite his shooting. He’s also in the top 10 in isolation attempts while the Pelicans are in the bottom 10 in points per possession allowed. Beal is going to go nuclear on one of these slates sooner or later.
Buddy Hield ($5,600 DK/$5,600 FD)
We don’t want to read too much into the Kings in their first game with a new coach, but Hield seeing a few more minutes is a big deal. He played 31 compared to his seasonal average of 28 and Hield has a 24.5% usage rate and a 1.00 fantasy point per minute. He also is a sharpshooter from deep, shooting 39.6% and he’s shooting almost 11 per game. The Trail Blazers are on a back-to-back, have the stone worst defensive rating in the past two weeks, and they allow the third-highest FG% from beyond the arc this season.
Honorable Mention
C.J. McCollum
Desmond Bane
Value Spot (Magic likely to offer some)
Small Forward
Miles Bridges ($7,800 DK/$8,300 FD)
Since I likely can’t spend the salary on LaMelo on DK, I may wind up with plenty of Bridges. He’s under $8,000 in part because he had a putrid game last game. Keep in mind, he just scored 54 the game before that. Orlando is dead last in points in the paint and while Bridges isn’t the poster boy for paint touches, they’re going to struggle with him. He can catch lobs from LaMelo, he can shoot the three a little bit, and he has 13.4 rebound chances per game. His usage is still over 23% and the fantasy points per minute are over 1.05. The salary does not match the ceiling.
Josh Giddey ($6,600 DK/$6,000 FD)
This is far from the best matchup for Giddey since he’s facing Utah but the salary may not have come up enough with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander not being active tonight. We just saw last game that he can score 40 DraftKings points despite scoring just 15 real points and shooting 0-5 from 3-point distance. Utah is in the top five in rebounding so that aspect could be tough for him but he still has a usage rate over 22% without SGA and his fantasy points per minute are 1.10. Considering the salary and 30-32 minutes, that is enough and I’m willing to go there even in the face of the matchup.
Honorable Mention
Brandon Ingram
Lauri Markkanen (could be very chalky on DK)
Value Spot
Power Forward
Domantas Sabonis ($8,500 DK/$8,400 FD)
It’s time to get back to our favorite in Sabonis. The game logs don’t look fantastic, to be clear, However, look at the minutes attached to the past three games at 22, 22, and 26. All three games were blowouts and the Lakers are in a back-to-back situation. Sabonis is one of just five players averaging over 10 paint touches per game and he’s just under double-digits in points in the paint at 9.4. The Lakers are 28th in points allowed in the paint and the size of Indiana might give these Lakers some issues, although LeBron is back. Either way, Sabonis has been producing in limited court time lately and I’m happy to take advantage.
Wendell Carter Jr. ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD)
This is a similar situation as Sabonis because the Magic have gotten the tar beat out of them or Carter has had foul issues recently driving down his salary. He has 5.4 paint touches on the season and five points scored in the paint, while Charlotte is 22nd in points allowed in the paint. Even without Cole Anthony, Carter has a 1.12 fantasy point per minute and the Hornets frontcourt is just so, so bad. Carter can also hit the 3-point shot and he’s shooting 41.2% on the season. This is a player that was $7,000 14 days ago and the salary has gone way too far.
Honorable Mention
Pascal Siakam
Al Horford
Value Spot
Center
Jonas Valanciunas ($8,900 DK/$8,000 FD)
Deandre Ayton ($7,400 DK/$7,700 FD)
Robert Williams ($5,600 DK) Love him on DK
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
