DFSGhost 
With the number of games we had on last night’s NBA schedule, it is only normal to see a mere four on tap for today. They key to success tonight will be shortening the list of players, which is what we will be focusing on with the players listed below. Value plays will be key since the mid range is bare, to say the least, and the model will be our guide to those targets under $5,000 in salary. It’s a Seltzer Sunday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
Steph Curry ($11,200 DK / $10,800 FD)
On a small NBA slate, there is no denying the importance of simply taking the raw points that an elite target such as Curry offers, as long as the value paired with it makes sense. Sporting a 33.2% usage rate on the season, Curry will be rested after missing Golden State’s last game versus Detroit, where he now looks to continue building on one of, if not his best season in his illustrious career. He’s averaging 29.5 PPG on 46.3% shooting, including 5.7 3PM per game, which is on pace to beat a league record that, you guessed it, he owns.
Honorable Mentions:
- Chris Paul ($8,300 DK / $8,900 FD)
- Cade Cunningham ($7,100 DK / $7,000 FD)
Shooting Guards
Will Barton ($7,200 DK / $6,500 FD)
Since Michael Porter Jr. went down with an injury, Will Barton has stepped up in a big way, alongside Nikola Jokic, for the Denver Nuggets. Sporting a 22.4% usage rate in those six games, Barton has posted a 19.5/6/4.5 scoring line on 48.4% shooting, while also being a +42 across 34.8 MPG. While Phoenix’s wings have never been a point of attack from an individual matchup perspective for any given NBA slate, Barton’s ball handling duties alongside Monte Morris present him with a favorable battle versus Devin Booker, who has a defensive rating of 105.5.
Honorable Mentions
- Zach Lavine ($8,700 DK / $7,800 FD)
- Devin Booker ($8,600 DK / $8,100 FD)
Small Forwards
Gary Trent Jr. ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD)
SF will likely be a punt position for me with few targets being of real interest, but the Raptors’ wings will have a serious role on this NBA slate should OG Anunoby be ruled out once again. While Scottie Barnes has a safer floor due to his rebounding upside and overall peripheral statistics, it is Trent who will draw the best of the bad matchups that you get when facing the league’s best defense in Golden State. Logging 36 or more minutes and scoring 20 or more points in four of the last five games, Trent’s 21.3% usage rate is explicable to his low floor, but his 56.63% shooting attempt frequency from behind the arc makes him a high-risk, high-reward mid range play.
Honorable Mentions:
- Scottie Barnes ($6,500 DK / $6,300 FD)
- Saddiq Bey ($5,600 DK / $5,700 FD)
Power Forwards
DeMar DeRozan ($8,500 DK / $8,500 FD)
The king of the mid range jumper has settled in nicely for the Bulls this season, proving to be the scorer they needed alongside Zach Lavine. Carrying a 30.2% usage rate on the season, DeRozan gets a juicy matchup versus a Knicks team that is on the second half of a back-to-back, and with four straight games of 20 or more points, he looks primed to capitalize on a Knicks defense that ranks 27th in the NBA versus combo forwards.
Honorable Mentions:
- Julius Randle ($9,700 DK / $8,400 FD)
- Jerami Grant ($6,700 DK / $7,300 FD)
Centers
Deandre Ayton ($7,500 DK / $7,800 FD)
While Nikola Jokic will certainly become a focal point for our NBA lineups should he return to the Nuggets lineup, on the flipside of this matchup is Deandre Ayton, who will have an absolute cakewalk of a matchup should Jokic be out. Facing a combination of JaMychal Green, Jeff Green, and Aaron Gordon, there will be no stopping Ayton, who not only has six straight games of double-digit rebounds, but also has a 20.8% usage rate in that span, where he’s posted 17.2 PPG. Ayton sits second in the NBA in paint touches per game, behind only Jarrett Allen, and the former’s efficiency around the rim will be on full display, should Jokic be sidelined.
Honorable Mentions:
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400 DK / $11,300 FD)
- Toronto Raptors centers (punt)
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
