Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/2
After a wild nine-game slate last night, we only have five games tonight and that’s a little more manageable. It’s a very interesting slate because there are some strong mismatches on paper and major style differences clashing. We have a bunch to get to for just five games and it’s Taco Tuesday in the Gems article – Let’s Ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
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- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
Luka Doncic ($11,100 DK/$10,400 FD)
This slate is a little bit odd. Luka is one of the most expensive players on the slate and I’m betting there’s a certain power forward that will draw much ownership in a better spot. Luka also draws the Heat, who sit first in defensive rating and 16th in pace. That’s not normally a spot to attack but Luka matches up well with the Heat in one aspect. He is 11th in attempts in isolation and is only shooting 33.3% from that play type. Last season he shot 46.3% with about the exact same attempts and the Heat are the fifth-worst in points per possession defending that play type. They also allow the eighth-highest points so if Luka finds a natural positive regression, he could get back to what we’ve known him to be since he entered the league. The usage is still there at 35.1% and his fantasy points per minute won’t stick at 1.39 because his true shooting rate of 49.9% isn’t in line with his career mark of 57.1%.
Chris Paul ($7,600 DK/$7,800 FD)
This is the first time that Paul has been a member of the Gems but the matchup against the Pelicans guards tends to do that. CP3 has a 48.1% usage rate and 1.22 fantasy points per minute so far and both teams are in the top 15 in pace. The Pelicans are 26th in defensive rating at 110.2. I reference that because both Devonte’ Graham (if active) and Nickell Alexander-Walker have individual defensive ratings of right about 110. Not only that, Paul runs the highest frequency as the pick and roll ball handler of anyone in the league. He shot 51.9% on that play type last season and this year is only shooting 37.8%. The Pelicans allow the highest frequency, the most field goals made and attempted, and the second-highest points per possession to the pick and roll ball handler. They of course allow the most points at 25.6 and the second-place team allows 19.8. We could be in store for vintage CP3 tonight.
Honorable Mention
Kevin Porter Jr. ($6,200 DK/$5,900 FD)
George Hill ($3,800 DK/$4,600 FD) – Gross but if he gets us to other studs on a smaller slate, I get it.
Shooting Guard
Devin Booker ($8,000 DK/$8,200 FD)
I can pretty much promise I’m going to have one of the guards for Phoenix in part because of the matchups I mentioned for Paul. I’m not likely to have both so ownership could help decide. Regardless, Booker leads the team in usage at 32.3% and his fantasy points per minute are at 1.19. Booker is another player due for positive regression because he’s shooting 28.6% from deep. The Pelicans are allowing the fourth-highest percentage from deep and one of these guards is set to go nuts.
Jordan Clarkson ($5,600 DK/$5,400 FD)
This is not the deepest position on the slate but Clarkson has a boom game coming at some point and it could be tonight. His usage trails only Donovan Mitchell at 31.9% and his true shooting is just 48.5%. That is horrid, as is his shooting 24.1% from deep. The Kings are 11th in pace and 25th in defensive rating, which is a big boost. Clarkson is playing 25 minutes per night and could be the type of play that nobody is on before that big boom game.
Honorable Mention
Tyler Herro ($6,900 DK/$6,400 FD)
Cade Cunningham as a punt on DK
Small Forward
Jimmy Butler ($9,100 DK)
He’s pretty pricey on FD so I may not go here on that site. I suspect that Butler is going to be fully engaged for this contest and he has 1.41 fantasy points per minute, in large part because he contributes everywhere. Miami is playing him 34 minutes per night and Buckets even kicks in almost three steals per game. Doncic is seventh in turnovers and Butler should be able to snag at least three steals in this contest. He’s fourth in points from transition and we’re always after stat-sheet fillers in this price range.
Honorable Mention
This position is gross and I may wind up playing Luka here on DK. We can also consider Brandon Ingram (if active), Harrison Barnes, and likely Bucks value to fill this out.
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,600 DK/$11,300)
He may not have hit the ceiling against the Jazz but this is a very different matchup. Milwaukee continues to run without four of their five starters and Detroit is 16th in points in the paint allowed and 28th in rebounding. Through 86 minutes without the players missing for the Bucks, Giannis has a 34.5% usage rate and 1.68 fantasy points per minute. He is expensive but with the majority of the lineup out, there’s a better chance at a closer game tonight.
Christian Wood ($8,300 DK/$7,900 FD)
I’m cheating a little bit because Wood is only C-eligible on DK but he’s in a quietly good spot. Wood sees the exact same matchup and scored 35 DK points despite going 1-6 from three and 1-7 from the free-throw line. Considering he’s shooting over 40% from deep and 57% from the line on the season, that game should be cast aside as variance. The Lakers have allowed over 40 points in the paint this season and are 17th in rebounds allowed in the paint. Wood has 1.20 fantasy points per minute and a usage rate over 24%, both marks that are worth chasing. They need him to play a lot of minutes to help with Anthony Davis so we should expect another 35 just like last game.
Honorable Mention
Harrison Barnes ($7,400 DK/$7,700 FD)
Value Spot
Center
Jonas Valanciunas ($8,500 DK/$8,600 FD)
If Deandre Ayton doesn’t suit up for this game, JoVal might be the highest priority on the slate for me. Valanciunas sits eighth in paint touches per game and only Joel Embiid attempts more field goals from a post up than JoVal. The Suns haven’t faced that play type a ton and are allowing a 43.8% field goal percentage. The big man leads the Pelicans in touches and has 1.33 fantasy points per minute, all while finally playing big minutes. He’s averaging just over 34 per night and that makes a huge difference.
Honorable Mention
Rudy Gobert ($8,100 DK/$8,200 FD)
Deandre Ayton ($6,800 DK/$7,800 FD)
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