NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18

There are only six games tonight for the NBA but it is a puzzle at this point. We have a lot of very important cogs on multiple teams that can change the complexion of the slate in a hurry. Let’s dive in and start outlining some scenarios to prepare for the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/18 and find green screens!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

Ja Morant ($10,000 DK/$10,000 FD) 

You guys knew this one was coming as a primary ball-handler against the Clippers and Morant scored 44 DraftKings points in the last game in just under 25 minutes. Yes, his usage and fantasy points per minute have dropped a bit with Dillon Brooks back in action but it’s still over 24% and 1.33. I do not believe that Morant is going to take a backseat to Brooks forever as far as usage goes and he’s third in drives to the hoop this year. I’ll admit that the Clippers are one of the top-five teams in allowing points in the paint, but that isn’t a huge concern with Morant. He’s too talented and he has a perimeter shot this season as he’s shooting 38.2% from deep. 

The format is going to be a little different today in that we’ll lay out an elite option at each position and then talk about the If/Then scenarios, such as this first one – 

IF Stephen Curry is out for Golden State, THEN Jordan Poole is a must-play option. When Curry is off the floor this season, Poole has a 35.2% usage rate and 1.11 fantasy points per minute. It wouldn’t be much of a different situation than Jalen Brunson last night, except Poole doesn’t have Kristaps Porzingis to share with as well. Cleveland is on a back-to-back and is extremely short-handed, a great spot to exploit for Poole. 

IF Spencer Dinwiddie is out as expected, THEN Raul Neto and Aaron Holiday become strong punt options. I know we don’t normally dip this low, but Dinwiddie is likely sitting the second portion of the back-to-back set. Neto and Holiday will split minutes but Neto has the advantage in usage at 19.3% and fantasy points at 0.84. We’ll look to the model to confirm. 

Honorable Mention 

Dejounte Murray 

Monte Morris 

Shooting Guard 

Bradley Beal ($9,400 DK$8,700 FD)

With Dinwiddie expected to sit, Beal enters the conversation for me for one of the first times this season. His usage bumps up to 34.8% and the fantasy points per minute are 1.26, not to mention he’s generating 10.6 points from driving to the hoop. Miami is top-five in points in the paint allowed as well but Bam Adebayo is not guaranteed to play tonight after sitting last night. Beal will be relied on for nearly 36 minutes and he’s sitting seventh in points scored in isolation. The Heat have allowed the fifth-most points in that play type and Beal would have the ball even more without Dinwiddie. 

IF Nic Batum and/or Terrance Mann is out for the Clippers, THEN Eric Bledsoe looks like a strong candidate. They would be down to about 7-8 players and that would include Serge Ibaka and Brandon Boston. Bledsoe shot poorly last game and we have a very low minute sample with these players out. Even if Mann is back, Bledsoe is sitting at 1.02 fantasy points per minute and a 21.8% usage when the rest of the LA players are off the court. I’ll take 20 minutes in a game against the 29th ranked defensive rating and the 12th highest pace. The Clippers are one of the most important teams of the night. 

Honorable Mention

D’Angelo Russell

Shake Milton 

Small Forward 

Jimmy Butler ($9,500 DK/$9,700 FD)

I think we can say that Butler’s ankle is fine because he played 36 minutes last night while the Heat were short-handed. I would have some reservations about Adebayo playing since he’s missed multiple games and if he’s out, Butler has a 1.47 fantasy points per minute with Bam off the floor. The Wizards have zero chance to defend Butler tonight and they have faced the eighth-most attempts in transition. Butler is shooting 61.8% in that play type and is top 10 in points per game, raising his ceiling to 50+ DraftKings points again. Even if Bam is in, I’m still interested but could wind up spending down. 

IF Curry is out, THEN Andrew Wiggins is in the conversation. I won’t be happy about it but Andre Iguodala is already out and someone else besides Poole has to score. His usage is over 29% but his fantasy points per minute are just 0.88, very Wiggins-like. Still, he’d be a lock for 32+ minutes and could be chalky so at least in cash, it’s a consideration. 

IF OG Anunoby is out, THEN Scottie Barnes is more interesting because Anunoby leaves a giant hole in minutes. Barnes will almost never come off the floor and has a paltry 18.6% usage rate but 0.94 fantasy points per minute. He leads the team in minutes without Anunoby as well, so the sample can be trusted a bit more. Utah is a very tough spot but the minutes can’t be discounted. 

Honorable Mention 

Paul George (could be more appealing pending Clippers status)

Kyle Kuzma 

Power Forward 

This position is the worst of the night in my eyes. Tobias Harris is the default pay-up option and at almost $9,000, I can say I’m not that interested. Two games ago saw him record a 30-point double-double and he just managed to hit 51 DraftKings points. Harris only has 1.20 fantasy points per minute this year in the scenario the Sixers are in tonight. Pascal Siakam is less appealing against the Utah interior defense as well. 

As things stand, I could be looking towards a Deni Avdija for the Wizards or Otto Porter as a punt. Avdija has been playing some more minutes and last night saw him play 25 even with Beal in the lineup. For Porter, Iguodala already being ruled out is a nice boost for him as far as minutes go because he should grab a few extra. 

IF Adebayo is in and fully healthy, THEN he is a priority on FanDuel where he can be slotted in at the PF position, and even on DK, he should smash Washington in the paint with 5.9 paint points per game (Butler is even higher). Washington is 22nd in points allowed in the paint. 

Honorable Mention 

Aaron Gordon 

Center 

Nikola Jokic ($12,000 DK/$11,600 FD)

The Joker appears expensive and he sure is, but he’s got what I believe to be the best chance to lead the slate in fantasy points even if Curry is in. If he’s out, Jokic should be the favorite as he’s shooting 38.6% from deep and finds himself without Michael Porter Jr. and most likely Will Barton. In that scenario, Jokic has a 38.5% usage ad 1.94 fantasy points per minute. That is immense and we have punts already from the Wizards that can work with him. 

Look at it like this – Jokic has a floor of 60 in this scenario and a punt like Neto should score at least 20. That’s a floor of 80 (roughly, just for easy math) and a 6x return on a $15,200 salary is 91.2. It’s not that hard for Jokic to score 70 and Neto to hit 25. The matchup against Andre Drummond does not scare me in the least. Among players that attempt more than two field goals, Jokic has the highest points per possession in the post-up game and the second-most points per game. Philly has held opponents to a 44.7% FG% and Jokic is at 58.9%. 

IF Jarrett Allen can play, THEN he enters consideration. He’d be relied upon for big minutes and the Warriors are just 16th in points allowed in the paint. Allen is fifth in points scored in the paint and should be a double-double threat with Evan Mobley sidelined. 

Honorable Mention 

Ivica Zubac

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life