NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/15

Another great NBA slate yesterday from the team and today’s looks even better. With numerous stars already ruled out or questionable to play, there will be a ton of moving pieces, but that’s the beauty of the sport. It’s Mojito Monday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guards

Malcolm Brogdon ($8,200 DK / $8,600 FD)

While the position is filled with quality options at the top of the pricing grid on tonight’s NBA slate, the upper mid range will be king. Beginning with Malcolm Brogdon, we are looking at multiple players that are underpriced as both a product of their environments, and due to injuries on their team. Since returning to the Pacers lineup, Brogdon has a 27% usage rate through his last four contests, logging over 36 MPG with a 21.3/7.5/6.5 scoring line. Carrying a 29.5% assist rate into tonight, Brogdon gets a Knicks team that not only ranks 25th in defensive efficiency, but also has a starting unit with the worst defensive rating in the history of the league, thus far.

Spencer Dinwiddie ($7,600 DK / $6,500 FD)

With Bradley Beal out yet again for the Wizards tonight, look no further than Dinwiddie to know who the highest rostered player on the NBA slate will be. Sporting a 33.4% usage rate with Beal on the sideline, Dinwiddie has a ridiculous uptick in volume, posting a 28.5/7.5/8.5 scoring line on 54.8% shooting, all while taking 21 FGA per night.

Honorable Mentions:

• Ja Morant ($10,000 DK / $10,000 FD)
• Cole Anthony ($7,400 DK / $7,600 FD)

Shooting Guards

CJ McCollum ($7,700 DK / $7,700 FD)

While Damian Lillard’s status for tonight’s game is unknown at the time of writing, we’ll assume he remains out for the Trail Blazers. As I alluded to in the section above, the upper mid range is loaded tonight and McCollum will certainly be a strong consideration in our NBA lineups should Lillard miss a second straight game. With a 31.4% usage rate with Lillard sidelined, McCollum will get all the volume he can handle for the second night in a row, despite the tough matchup versus Toronto’s 2-3 zone defense.

Tyler Herro ($6,600 DK / $6,900 FD)

Right back to the well with my pre-season favorite for both the Sixth Man of the Year and Most Improved Player awards. Tyler Herro has been a walking bucket this season, logging over 33 MPG off the bench for the Miami Heat. Behind his 28.2% usage rate, Herro’s propelled this Heat offense to new heights, taking over 18 FGA per night and will be relied upon to start alongside Kyle Lowry once again, should Jimmy Butler be ruled out with an ankle injury.

Honorable Mentions

• Dennis Schroder ($6,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
• Lugentz Dort ($5,000 DK / $5,700 FD)

Small Forwards

Kyle Kuzma ($6,700 DK / $6,800 FD)

Similarly to Dinwiddie, Kyle Kuzma saw a notable uptick in volume and offensive responsibility with Bradley Beal sidelined. A 3.4% increase in usage rate has led Kuzma to take over 15 FGA per night in two games without Beal, where he averaged a 21.5/10.5 double-double; Brandon Ingram is certainly more of a threat to Kuzma’s ceiling on both ends of the floor than someone like Josh Hart, but Kuzma’s versatility on offense will be on display no matter who he lines up against tonight. He’s a strong play for GPPs on tonight’s NBA slate, and as close to a lock, alongside Spencer Dinwiddie, as it gets for cash games.

Dillon Brooks ($6,500 DK / $5,800 FD)

While the Kuzma route is the safe – and smart – route to take with our first small forward, we’re spicing things up here with a practically unrostered Dillon Brooks. Coming back from a fractured left hand, Brooks has been simply amazing in two appearances for the Grizzlies, sporting a 31% usage rate while posting back-to-back 20-point performances, chipping in 4.5 RPG and 3 APG along the way. What intrigues the most about Brooks the most, despite being on a minutes limit, is that he has taken 17 and 18 shots, respectively, in his first two games this year, including 11 of 35 total attempts coming from behind the arc. If we’re looking to get wild on this NBA slate, Brooks is firmly in my player pool at the time of writing.

Honorable Mentions:

• Saddiq Bey ($6,400 DK / $6,100 FD)
• Jae’Sean Tate ($5,300 DK / $5,500 FD)

Power Forwards

Anthony Davis ($10,400 DK / $10,700 FD)

The Chicago native gets a matchup versus his hometown with simply nobody to guard him. The Bulls have been missing Nikola Vucevic tremendously since he landed on the COVID list, and tonight, it will be as evident as ever. While Russell Westbrook continues to struggle, it’s been Davis and his 30.6% usage rate with LeBron out that has carried the Lakers; he’s averaging a 26/11.8 double-double with LeBron out this season, and nobody – and I mean nobody – will be able to guard AD tonight. Whether the Bulls attempt to play Tony Bradley more minutes to match his size or go small (lol) with Alize Johnson and Derrick Jones Jr., AD can certainly lead the NBA slate in scoring.

Pascal Siakam ($8,300 DK / $8,200 FD)

With Siakam having all restrictions lifted, it’s all systems go for this Raptors offense. Last game was the first where we got to see Siakam at full strength, and he did not disappoint; Siakam had a 24.6% usage rate on the night, but played over 34 minutes, where he posted a 25/12/7 scoring line on 64.3% shooting. Slotting in at the ‘5’ as the primary roll man to VanVleet’s pick ‘n roll, in addition to being the receiver on the Scottie Barnes dribble-and-drive, Siakam will have a field day versus a Portland front court that has been decimated by small-ball bigs. Once again, the upper mid range is beyond loaded on this NBA slate.

Honorable Mentions:

• Domantas Sabonis ($8,800 DK / $8,700 FD)
• Evan Mobley ($7,200 DK / $7,500 FD)

Centers

• Jonas Valanciunas ($9,100 DK / $8,800 FD)
• Montrezl Harrell ($6,500 DK / $8,000 FD)

Honorable Mentions:

• Myles Turner ($6,700 DK / $7,700 FD)
• Value Spot

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life