DFSGhost 
After another small NBA slate yesterday, we are back for a sizable one with plenty of good matchups to attack at each position. It’s Fajita Friday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
Dejounte Murray ($9,400 DK / $9,500 FD)
With many elite point guards on tonight’s NBA slate, I want to ensure that I get at least one in my main lineup. While things can certainly change since the time of writing – after all, this is NBA DFS – Dejounte Murray currently sits atop the throne of my priorities at the position to pair with the player written up below. Sporting a 25.2% usage rate on the season, Murray is the king of peripheral statistics, averaging 7.9 RPG and 8.2 APG and faces a Dallas team that ranks 21st in both rebounds and assists allowed to opposing guards; Murray has posted a 23/9/8 and a 23/10/8 scoring line in two games versus Dallas thus far this season, and tonight is where he lands the 20-point triple-double.
Ricky Rubio ($5,700 DK / $5,900 FD)
With Collin Sexton dealing with a serious knee injury, Ricky Rubio will be heavily relied upon for the Cavaliers offense. Despite coming off the bench, Rubio’s 25.5% usage rate is mightily impressive as is, but his 37.6% usage rate last game with Sexton sidelined was simply astronomical. Tying for the second-most field goal attempts on the team, Rubio dropped an efficient 20/5/5 and he gets a favorable matchup versus an inexperienced Detroit backcourt tandem of Cunningham and Hayes, making him one of the elite options in the mid range of tonight’s NBA slate.
Honorable Mentions:
- James Harden ($10,400 DK / $9,600 FD)
- De’Aaron Fox ($8,400 DK / $7,900 FD)
Shooting Guards
Anthony Edwards ($8,100 DK / $8,100 FD)
Let me make one thing clear as possible, my interest in Anthony Edwards has nothing to do with his last game. Actually, I really don’t like Edwards as a player nor as an NBA DFS option on a nightly basis. However, when it comes to my displeasure toward a player, nothing stands in the way of making money in NBA betting; enter Edwards, who gets a Lakers roster that is dead last in the league versus primary ball handlers, allowing over 53 DK PPG. Edwards’ 30.9% usage rate leads the team, as he has essentially taken over ball handling duties from D’Angelo Russell, although the latter is firmly in play as well.
Josh Giddey ($6,400 DK / $6,000 FD)
Despite the 19.9% usage rate, rookie Josh Giddey has left quite the impression in the early stages of his NBA career. Averaging 9.8/6.7/6.2 across 29.3 MPG, Giddey continues to fill the stat sheet, averaging over 32 DK PPG in his last six contests, and now faces a Sacramento team that ranks 8th in pace and 24th in net defensive rating, including ranking last in the league to combo guards, allowing over 48 FPPG to the player type.
Honorable Mentions
- D’Angelo Russell ($7,200 DK / $7,100 FD)
- Grayson Allen ($5,200 DK / $5,500 FD)
Small Forwards
Kevin Durant ($11,100 DK / $10,300 FD)
I wish I could simply write “Who on Earth is guarding Kevin Durant tonight?”, and, truth be told, that should be enough of a reason to play him versus the Pelicans. Nonetheless, Durant’s 35.2% usage rate across his last five contests is beyond enticing, where he’s dropped 32/8/4.6 per game on 58.8% shooting. Facing the Pelicans and their 29th ranked defense, who could be without Brandon Ingram yet again, is the best matchup at a scarce position, making it too hard to not highly consider.
Will Barton ($6,900 DK / $6,700 FD)
Despite the return of the reigning NBA MVP, Nikola Jokic, Will Barton remains underpriced considering the absence of Michael Porter Jr. in this Nuggets lineup. Although his usage bump will return to normalcy tonight, Barton’s 17.2% rate just two games ago didn’t prevent him from producing an impressive scoring line, dropping 25/5/6 on the league’s best defense in Miami. With De’Andre Hunter and Bogdan Bodanovic questionable to play for Atlanta tonight, Barton could be in for a big one against the likes of Kevin Huerter and Cam Reddish.
Honorable Mentions:
- Desmond Bane ($4,900 DK / $4,700 FD)
- SG/SF Eligible players listed above (Giddey, Edwards, Allen)
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis ($10,900 DK / $10,800 FD)
With an elite point guard being a priority for me on tonight’s NBA slate, I’ll be looking to the power forward position for my second stud, if the value plays permit it. Enter the first candidate, Anthony Davis, who gets former Kentucky Wildcat, Karl-Anthony Towns, one on one in the paint for 30+ minutes. With Minnesota ranking 28th in the league to opposing centers in rebounding percentage, including ranking dead last in the league with a 46.8% rebounding rate, AD will have a field day against his former College alum, and his 30.9% usage rate with LeBron sidelined this season will only solidify his floor while also elevating his ceiling.
Julius Randle ($10,200 DK / $9,400 FD)
Another elite power forward in what can only be described as a cake walk of a matchup, Julius Randle will explode on tonight’s NBA slate. Charlotte contests are the goldmines of game environments, where they rank 3rd in the league in pace and 28th in defensive rating. Randle gets an even more favorable individual matchup than the game environment described above, if that was even possible, since the Hornets rank 29th in rebounding rate and 24th in points allowed in the paint, where Randle sits 7th in the league in second chance scoring.
Honorable Mentions:
- Jaren Jackson Jr. ($6,200 DK / $6,500 FD)
- Jae’Sean Tate ($5,300 DK / $5,600 FD)
Centers
Note: I am likely punting the center position with one, if not both of the honorable mentions listed below; please be sure to use the projection model to ensure which one will stand out, amongst others popping up through the day, but there are only two candidates above $5,000 on DK that I will consider:
- Christian Wood ($9,000 DK / $8,200 FD)
- Jarrett Allen ($7,800 DK / $7,700 FD)
Honorable Mentions:
- Isaiah Stewart ($4,300 DK / $4,800 FD)
- LaMarcus Aldridge ($4,100 DK / $5,300 FD)
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
