Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/11
The NBA has been a see-saw as far as the schedule goes the past few days and we’re back to a short slate with just three games. If you thought last night was chalky, tonight is likely to be even more so. It appears likely that Jimmy Butler will not be available for the Heat after he left last night’s game with a sprained ankle and Philadelphia is still missing a ton of players. We’ll walk you through our approach in NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/11 and discuss our favorite options on the slate to find the green screens again!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Question 1: “Which approach are you taking when building a single lineup? Stars & Scrubs, Balanced, Game stack, etc.?”
Ghost: Definitely balanced considering the only player on this slate above 10K is Paul George. Plenty of value to be had in the opening game of the slate, so that’s where I’ll be heading and getting different elsewhere.
Adam: It may sound boring, but I’m likely just jamming in Sixers once again. The status of Seth Curry and Tobias Harris isn’t known yet but Philly will almost surely have a 7-8 man rotation. It’s almost a carbon copy of Tuesday where I played 3-4 Sixers then stacked the late game that is not the Jazz game.
Question 2: “Which stud is a lock for you on this slate?”
Ghost: If playing one, it has to be Paul George. However, multiple targets interest me in the 8K range, including Andre Drummond, Fred VanVleet, and Bam Adebayo.
Adam: By default to some extent, it’s Paul George. He’s the only player available over $10,000 on DraftKings but in addition, he has a 31.1% usage rate and 1.28 fantasy points per minute. The play-type data is encouraging as well since Miami gives up the second-most points in isolation and PG13 is 10th in points scored from isolation and he’s only shooting 41.9% so far. Honorable mention goes to Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro because it would sure appear that Jimmy Butler is out tonight.
Question 3: “Which stud are you most likely to fade in a single-entry contest or be underweight on in 150-max?”
Ghost: As much as it pains me to say, I’m likely not playing Domantas Sabonis on tonight’s slate. Myles Turner is a much better matchup for Rudy Gobert, and I wanted limited exposure to what should be an easy Utah win.
Adam: Domantas Sabonis, simply because he relies on paint touches and being the roll man in the pick and roll. Facing Rudy Gobert in the paint in Utah is a bad spot, as Gobert is top 10 defending the roll man.
Question 4: “If you had to pick one star and one value play to be in the winning lineup, who would they be and why?”
Ghost: Andre Drummond and Precious Achiuwa. With Pascal Siakam likely resting on the second half of a back-to-back, Achiuwa will get even more minutes than the 25 he saw less than 24 hours ago.
Adam: The duo of George and Furkan Korkmaz, pending the Philly lineup. Kork went full Along Came Polly last game and you never go full Along Came Polly. This is a great spot to hit some shots because the Raptors are top 10 in 3-point frequency given up and FG%. If Kork isn’t as appealing, Nic Batum stands out against the team with the highest frequency of 3-point attempts.
Question 5: “Give us a hot take for tonight’s slate.”
Ghost: Bam Adebayo carries the Miami Heat to a win against the LA Clippers to avoid going 0-2 at Staples Center, despite Paul George having his way on offense with Jimmy Butler nursing an ankle injury from last night’s loss to the Lakers.
Adam: Andre Drummond posts a Barbara Walters game with 20/20 and scores the most DraftKings points of any player not named Paul George and the double center approach on DK wins tournaments.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
