NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/08

There are eight games tonight and we have some heavy hitters to choose from, with almost 10 players above five digits for salary on DraftKings. There is also a large late-night hammer if you’re bold to go along with all the other options the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/08 include. It’s Mojito Monday – Let’s ride!

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

Point Guards

Luka Doncic ($10,700 DK/$10,200 FD)

If you feel like you’re still waiting for Luka to have his first big fantasy game of the season, you’re not exactly wrong. He has just one contest with 60 DK this season and it’s been a little bit of a slow start, much like last year. The last time we saw him he was draining an absurd three to win at the buzzer against Boston and maybe that’s what he needed to wake up. He’s now hit 53 DK in back-to-back games and gets the Pelicans backcourt, which bleeds against opposing guards.

On top of his 1.39 fantasy points per minute and 36% usage, Doncic is in the isolation play type 46% of the time and is third in points scored on that play type. It looks like the Pelicans are good defending it with just five points allowed per game, but opponents have shot just 37.7%, the ninth-lowest in the NBA. That’s not going to stick and Doncic could see a ceiling game here.

Chris Paul ($8,700 DK/$8,300 FD)

This spot is fascinating. Kings rookie Davion Mitchell is fast earning a reputation for being an excellent on-ball defender, which would point us toward him squaring up Devin Booker for most of his minutes. After all, Booker is the more dynamic scorer at this juncture. That could leave Paul with a little more offensive responsibility than normal and he leads the league in frequency as the pick and roll ball handler. The Kings have allowed the sixth-most points on the second-most field goal attempts in that play type. The truly scary part of that equation is opposing players have shot 36.3%, sixth-worst. CP3 is only scoring 6.6 points per night but the Kings are going to give him plenty of catches to exploit his 1.38 fantasy points per minute when Deandre Ayton (out tonight) is off the floor.

Shake Milton ($5,200 DK/$5,600 FD)

Even if veteran forward Danny Green plays in this contest, Milton is still going to be vital for the short-handed Sixers once again. He has played 34 and 36 minutes in the past couple of games and has 1.05 fantasy points per minute on a 21.5% usage rate. Both of those rates exceed Tyrese Maxey, who hasn’t done an overwhelming amount with his chance in the rotation. Maxey is having to play 40+ minutes to clear 30 DK points. Milton is still a little cheaper and so far, has been the more efficient player rather easily. The Knick just played last night and are 22nd in defensive rating.

Honorable Mention:

Russell Westbrook – super cheap on FD

Kyle Lowry

Kemba Walker (rested yesterday, it could be Derrick Rose’s turn tonight)

Shooting Guard

This position does not look like a priority to sink our salary into tonight. Milton especially looks appealing on either site (although FD gives you much more flexibility). The most expensive player at the position that even somewhat catches my eye is Tyler Herro, but what else is new? He’s been a monster for Miami, doing his best to back up his comments from the preseason about how good he is. You could say to play Seth Curry, but I can’t stress enough how much of a GPP play that is. You saw what happens when Curry doesn’t score at least 20 real points in his last game.

Anthony Edwards and Zach LaVine are both fine, but not large priorities in my eyes. LaVine gets the Nets but they have been playing slower and have a top-six defensive rating and both teams are in the bottom half of the league in possessions per game. If anything, the Grizzlies rank 29th in defensive rating so Edwards looks strong with his 1.14 fantasy points per minute and 30.5% usage but D’Angelo Russell should be back tonight. Overall, this is the spot to use a mid-range player or value that pops up through the day.

Honorable Mention

Jordan Poole

Jalen Brunson

Gary Payton II but I’d want the model to confirm that play

Small Forward

DeMar DeRozan ($8,200 DK/$8,500 FD)

DDR is only PF-eligible on DK, but he’s SG/SF eligible on FD so I’m not sure exactly which position I “should” write him for, so I get to pick. Anyway, the Nets played yesterday and this reeks of a spot that they sit either Blake Griffin or LaMarcus Aldridge. Even if they don’t, Brooklyn has been weak in the paint since the start of last season. DeRozan is top-five in points scored from drives to the basket and his 30.1% usage and 1.22 FPPM are eye-popping. His true shooting rate is 59.7% which is high, but not like i’s going to come screaming back to Earth. I’m not always a fan of the salary involved, but this is a very strong spot for him.

Will Barton ($5,500 DK/$5,800 FD)

Barton and a couple of his teammates could be very popular tonight. Michael Porter Jr. is out which means Barton is a virtual lock to play 35 minutes. His fantasy points per game are over 1.05 and his true shooting is under 50% when Porter is off the floor so far this year. P.J. Dozier could be a punt as well, but I’m not sure exactly how much Denver I want. Miami’s defense is no joke as they are top-three in defensive rating and points per game allowed. Both teams are 23rd or lower in possessions per game, so even though Porter is out we may not want to totally load up on Nuggets players.

Furkan Korkmaz ($4,900 DK)

I will likely not play him on FD because he is SG-eligible and that position is a little easier to fill. He didn’t start the last game which admittedly freaked me out, since he has been starting and was coming off a wrist injury. All he did was play 32 minutes and drain seven threes, scoring over 30 DK on the way. In addition to his 0.93 fantasy points per minute, he does have a 22% usage without Tobias Harris on the floor. He’s also more appealing on DK because the Knicks are in the bottom 10 in 3-point frequency allowed and Korkmaz is shooting 42.6% from deep so far this year. With the bonus that DK gives out, it can boost the score by 2-3 points.

Honorable Mention

Kevin Durant

Carmelo Anthony

Power Forward

Anthony Davis ($10,200 DK/$10,600 FD)

Absolutely nobody is going to want to hear this after Saturday night, but AD is in a smash spot tonight. The Hornets have been tortured by big men all season long and are in the bottom-eight of the in-the-paint metrics. Davis leads the entire league in paint touches and they are 26th in rebounds allowed. Charlotte is also 28th in points per possession allowed on post-ups, while AD is fourth in the league in points scored on that play type. Only the Knicks allow a higher field goal percentage than the Hornets and Davis is third at 60.6% from the field. With LeBron out, both he and Westbrook hover right at 1.50 fantasy points per minute.

Frank Kaminsky ($4,300 DK/$4,300 FD)

We rarely dip below $5,000 with our plays, but Kaminsky is likely going to be overwhelming chalk so he has to make the article to stress that point. We talked earlier about the pick and roll game and Kaminsky is going to be the roll man in a lot of those sets for Paul. The Kings have held the roll man to under 43% from the field, but Kaminsky also produces 1.16 fantasy points per minute. He’s played around 10 minutes more than teammate JaVale McGee when Ayton has been out and it’s hard to argue with a salary this cheap on either site.

Honorable Mention

Miles Bridges

Harrison Barnes

Center

Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,100 FD)

We’re not spending a lot of time here because you don’t need to know a whole lot more than Joker has 2.35 FPPM when Porter Jr. is off the floor. Even if that drops by half a point, we’re looking at 1.80 or so. It’s not a fun spot but the entire Nuggets squad has to go through Jokic and he should touch the ball at least 100 times tonight. If you have the salary, play him. At a very early guess, the Frank the Tank/Joker combo could be the cash starting point tonight (potentially).

Let’s say for argument that Jokic is the chalk of the night. I’m looking at Joel Embiid as an elite pivot, as he’s $1,200 cheaper and even though it may not seem like it, his 1.76 fantasy points per minute and 38.5% usage would rival Joker’s rates. Embiid has been off the injury report lately and the Knicks are getting demolished in the post-up game, which has been Embiid’s special for years now. He’s scoring 6.1 points and Joker is second at 4.7, while Biid is shooting just 46.2%. The Knicks allow a 68% field goal percentage and if Embiid gets Mitchell Robinson in foul trouble, the Knicks are going to lose some serious size down low. Oh, Embiid is tied for the second-most free throw attempts per game.

Honorable Mention

Karl-Anthony Towns

Richaun Holmes (love him against Kaminsky/McGee)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life

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NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/08