DFSGhost 
With many good matchups on the NBA schedule, tonight’s slate looks mighty enticing. Before we dive into the individual plays, a quick reminder that the action tips off at 6pm EST, rather than the usual 7pm EST, with four of seven games beginning at the same time; be sure to get your lineups adjusted accordingly. It’s a Seltzer Sunday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
Dejounte Murray ($9,100 DK / $9,500 FD)
It wasn’t too long ago that I was telling you all to lock in Murray at a mere $6,000 on DraftKings, but the face of the Spurs franchise has taken his game to another level this season that makes him deserve a hefty price tag today and more. Dejounte Murray is sporting a 24.6% usage rate on the year, while being one of the best point guards in all of NBA fantasy; his peripheral statistics have always been underrated, but with over 8 RPG and APG this season, it’s time to recognize how big of an impact he has in every aspect of the game. With a 21/8.2/8.8 scoring line in his last six contests over 35 MPG, Murray’s matchup with an OKC defense that has allowed opposing primary ball handlers to walk all over them, thanks to a young backcourt of SGA and rookie Josh Giddey, is too tasty to pass up on.
LaMelo Ball ($8,900 DK / $8,600 FD)
We always play primary ball handlers versus the LA Clippers, who rank 22nd in the NBA versus the player type, and 28th in the league dating back to last season. Enter LaMelo Ball, who was the Model darling from Friday’s slate, dropping 49.8 DK at 5% rostership. Over his last four games, Ball has posted a 23.8/6/8.5 scoring line while taking 17.5 FGA per game, including 7.8 from behind the arc, where a 27.1% usage rate has him playing the best basketball in the early season.
Honorable Mentions:
- Steph Curry ($10,700 DK / $10,000 FD)
- Jordan Poole ($5,800 DK / $6,000 FD)
Shooting Guards
Donovan Mitchell ($9,300 DK / $8,000 FD)
The matchup is far from ideal with Orlando ranking 25th in the NBA in pace, but I’m writing up Donovan Mitchell assuming that Mike Conley sits on the second half of a back-to-back for the Utah Jazz. Either way, there will be value to be had in the league’s best team, since I doubt they will send their full roster versus a rebuilding Magic squad. Enter Mitchell, who has a ridiculous 42% usage rate with Conley out, dropping 30/7/6 despite only going 9-for-27 from the field.
Caris LeVert ($6,900 DK / $7,300 FD)
While rookie Chris Duarte proved to be a prominent piece of this Indiana offense while Caris LeVert was rehabbing from injury, the latter is back playing a full set of minutes and seeing good volume for his price on tonight’s NBA slate. Sporting a 29.1% usage rate in his last two games, which were his first two with over 30 minutes played, LeVert’s efficiency has been subpar, but the volume is undeniable; he’s taken 39 shots in these last two games, and a matchup versus a Sacramento defense that that ranks dead last versus opposing combo guards, in addition to being 10th in the league in pace, is one where LeVert can be in for a big night.
Honorable Mentions
- Josh Giddey ($6,300 DK / $6,000 FD)
- Jordan Clarkson ($5,900 DK / $5,300 FD)
Small Forwards
Paul George ($10,400 DK / $10,800 FD)
I’ll continue to preach the same message – that most will baulk at PG’s price – but truthfully, he deserves to be the highest priced player on every NBA slate at this point of the season. PG has taken the league by storm in the absence of Kawhi Leonard, pacing the scoring race with 27.9 PPG through his 4th ranked 34.1% usage rate. Dropping 21/6/3 with 3 steals for 48 DK is no small feat, but when I tell you that it happened with him shooting 4-for-20 from the field, the ceiling is simply ridiculous for George in a matchup versus a Charlotte team that has no answer for the MVP candidate.
Miles Bridges ($8,100 DK / $8,400 FD)
If you cannot tell by now, the LAC/CHA game is my favorite one on tonight’s NBA slate. Alongside LaMelo Ball and Paul George, the other player that interests me is none other than Bridges, who has been having a breakout campaign for the Hornets. While his scoring totals have been volatile over the last few games, Bridges has taken 14 or more FGA in eight of his last nine games, where his 25.9% usage rate has led to a 23.8/7.7/3 scoring line.
Honorable Mentions:
- Harrison Barnes ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)
- Jae’Sean Tate ($5,000 DK / $5,200 FD)
Power Forwards
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 DK / $11,300 FD)
If there’s ever a spot to deploy the player with the highest upside in fantasy basketball after a few duds, it’s on tonight’s NBA slate. Despite a few mediocre performances to his standards combined with lofty expectations while Jrue Holiday, Khris Middleton, and Brook Lopez were out for the Bucks, Giannis still has the league’s third highest usage rate at 33.8% and gets a favorable matchup versus a Washington frontcourt that features a small duo of Gafford and Harrell. Washington ranks 28th in the NBA in points allowed in the paint per game, and there’s no stopping the Greek Freak tonight.
Julius Randle ($10,000 DK / $9,300 FD)
The price tag is hefty, but Julius Randle looks to be building on what he achieved last season for the New York Knicks. After leading his team to a massive comeback versus the Bucks just a few nights ago, Randle is now averaging 21.9/11.3/5.7 while logging his usual – albeit ridiculous – minutes for NY. With the Cavaliers ranking 23rd in the NBA to point forwards, look for Randle to attack the frontcourt of Allen and Mobley while exhausting his power on a short-handed Cavaliers rotation all game long.
Honorable Mentions:
- Domantas Sabonis ($9,400 DK / $9,000 FD)
- Keldon Johnson ($5,500 DK / $5,700 FD)
Centers
Christian Wood ($9,000 DK / $8,200 FD)
While the Warriors rank first in the NBA in defensive rating, Christian Wood poses as a serious threat to their record-setting start to the new season. Posting four straight games with double-digit rebounds, including two matchups versus the Lakers and one against Denver, Wood has been quite the bright spot for a young Rockets core. Averaging 18/15.3 during that stretch, Wood will give Draymond Green and company as much as they can handle on the glass and in the post.
Jarrett Allen ($7,100 DK / $7,500 FD)
The matchup is beyond brutal, but Allen remains firmly in play on tonight’s NBA slate with so many Cavaliers being out for various reasons. Since his team got hit with the injury bug and COVID cases, Allen has sported a mere 19.5% usage rate, but has contributed immensely on both ends of the floor; he’s posted a 21.3/16 double-double scoring line across 37.7 MPG, and while the 19.5% usage rate is nothing worth going crazy over, the volume is as safe as it gets – the issue is simply the matchup versus a Knicks team that that ranks 3rd in point allowed in the paint per game, while also ranking 10th in total rebounding.
Honorable Mentions:
- Richaun Holmes ($7,300 DK / $7,200 FD)
- Myles Turner ($6,200 DK / $7,000 FD)
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