DFSGhost 
Another NBA slate smashed yesterday and we’re looking to keep it rolling over the weekend. With the 76ers being short-handed, all eyes will be on their rotation; thus, few will be featured in this article, since most fall under the 5K price tag regardless (see paragraph below). It’s a Seltzer Saturday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
Russell Westbrook ($10,900 DK / $9,600 FD)
With LeBron James out for at least a week, we can look at the Westbrook/Davis duo every time they are on an NBA slate. Beginning with the triple-double King himself, Westbrook’s statistics with LeBron on the sidelines thus far have been simply spectacular: Westbrook carries a whopping 35.1% usage rate in three games, averaging a 26.7/10/8.7 scoring line while taking over 23 FGA per contest. With Portland’s interior defense being much weaker than their perimeter defense, I’m leaning more toward Davis in this one, but there’s no denying that Westbrook can break a slate at any time.
Chris Paul ($8,500 DK / $8,100 FD)
With the Suns drawing a favorable matchup versus a struggling Hawks team, we can look right back to the Point God if needing the saving off Russell Westbrook’s hefty price tag on tonight’s NBA slate. Leading the charge for the Suns in their last three games, CP3’s 16.3% usage rate certainly does not jump off the page, but his statistics do; he’s now posted double-digit assists in these three straight games, with a ridiculous tally of 41 to go along with 13 PPG and 3.3 steals per game. The Hawks have lost four of their last five, and travelling to Phoenix is a daunting task.
Tyrese Maxey ($5,900 DK / $5,700 FD)
While he will likely not be in my main lineup on tonight’s NBA slate, Maxey is one of few 76ers that is priced above the 5K threshold, meaning he at least deserves a small write-up. While the 14.7/2/6 scoring line with a 16.3% usage rate across his last three contests isn’t deserving of a 5.9K price tag on DK, Maxey has logged over 37 MPG for the short-handed Sixers, making him firmly in play based on sheer volume alone, along with the rest of his teammates.
Honorable Mentions:
- Luka Doncic ($10,700 DK / $10,200 FD)
- Lonzo Ball ($7,200 DK / $6,100 FD)
- Jalen Brunson ($5,600 DK / $5,200 FD)
Note: If Donovan Mitchell is out, both Mike Conley ($6,600 DK / $5,600 FD) and Jordan Clarkson ($5,600 DK / $5,300 FD) catapult up my rankings at the position.
Shooting Guards
Devin Booker ($8,500 DK / $8,300 FD)
Similarly to Chris Paul, Devin Booker has a ton of upside in this matchup versus the Atlanta Hawks. Considering they are both the same price on DK, the key difference between Book and CP3, however, is that the former is much more reliant on his raw scoring due to a smaller contribution in peripheral statistics than the latter. While CP3’s usage rate was mentioned to be lower than expected, Booker’s 33% clip in the same three games has led the way for the Suns, as has his 24 PPG. With De’Andre Hunter likely drawing the matchup versus Book, I lean CP3 on this particular NBA slate, although both make for excellent upper mid-range targets.
Tyler Herro ($6,900 DK / $6,400 FD)
With Kyle Lowry questionable to play tonight, expect the Miami Heat to rely on their sixth man, Tyler Herro, even more so than usual. A frontrunner for the award thus far, Herro has had a stellar NBA season thus far: his 28.2% usage rate off the bench is simply bonkers, along with an impressive 20.4/6.1/4 scoring line. When I constantly say that a starter is not guaranteed minutes and production, and that players off the bench can be equally, if not more productive, Herro is a perfect example, making him a prime target in a tough matchup versus the Utah Jazz.
Seth Curry ($6,200 DK / $5,400 FD)
The possible return of Furkan Korkmaz to the lineup tonight for the 76ers could mean less shot attempts for Curry, but he showed just how lights out he can be when his shot is dropping. Sporting a 21.8% usage rate in his last contest, Curry led the 76ers in scoring with 23 points, shooting 9-for-14, including 4-for-8 from behind the arc. With such a short rotation for Philadelphia once again, attacking one of the best shooting defenses in the NBA is far from a pristine option, but the sheer number of minutes and shots Curry is responsible for makes him the preferred target over someone like Tyrese Maxey.
Honorable Mentions
- Value Spot (see Model)
Small Forwards
None of the Small Forwards above 5K really stick out to me, with the exception of Jayson Tatum ($9,600 DK / $9,500 FD), who is written up below. Due to position scarcity and a lack of pay up options, I will likely be using a player below $5,000 on DK; use the Model.
Power Forwards
Anthony Davis ($10,500 DK / $10,600 FD)
My lock for tonight’s NBA slate, all of my lineups will be centered around one of Anthony Davis or Russell Westbrook, with my current lean being the former in a juicy matchup versus Jusuf Nurkic. With AD logging the majority of his minutes at the ‘5’ with the Lakers rolling out smaller lineups, AD gets a Portland interior defense that has allowed opposing centers to score 43 points in the paint per game and over 52 FPPG. In 3 games with LeBron out this season, Davis holds a 31.3% usage rate, averaging a whopping 31.3 PPG to go along with 14.3 RPG. He’s an absolute force and has the highest ceiling on the slate alongside his teammate.
Jayson Tatum ($9,600 DK / $9,500 FD)
With Jaylen Brown out for the Celtics tonight, look for Jayson Tatum to shoulder the load for a weak Celtics team on offense. In his lone game with JB out this season, Tatum had a season-high 32.9% usage rate, dropping 31 points while taking 24 shots for the Celtics. While they are just as bad as I predicted them to be in the preseason, the Celtics do get a decent matchup versus a Mavericks defense that allows over 45 FPPG to opposing combo wings, making Tatum an interesting GPP play on tonight’s NBA slate.
Carmelo Anthony ($5,800 DK / $6,500 FD)
Gone are the days of playing Melo at a cheap price tag, but he remains firmly on our shortlist for tonight’s NBA slate. Seeing a huge bump in minutes with LeBron out, Melo has already been producing for the Lakers off the bench, but with the Lakers rolling out smaller lineups with AD at the ‘5’, Melo is the primary benefactor to receive more touches alongside Westbrook and AD. Sporting a 20.6% usage rate in three games without LeBron this season, Melo logged over 30 minutes per contest, taking 13 FGA for LA. Averaging 17 PPG on the season, Melo will live and die with the mid-range, but anyone saying that he doesn’t have it anymore is simply lying to themselves.
Honorable Mention:
- Al Horford ($7,600 DK / $7,600 FD)
Centers
Very few targets interest me here with Joel Embiid still nursing a knee injury and a brutal matchup between Bam Adebayo and Rudy Gobert. I will likely be locking in Anthony Davis, but here are a few more targets on this NBA slate:
- Nikola Vucevic ($8,900 DK / $8,100 FD)
- Clint Capela ($7,100 DK / $6,400 FD)
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