Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/04
Tonight brings us a more manageable slate as far as not being overwhelmed. Last night was 11 games and that can be tough but tonight is only five games in the NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 11/04. It’s Thirsty Thursday – let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guard
Chris Paul ($8,500 DK/$7,800 FD)
We’re going right back to the Point God after he sliced and diced the Pelicans on Tuesday night. The Rockets are playing at the fastest pace in the league and while CP3 is one of the best at dictating how the game flows, Houston is also third in possessions per game. Paul is the pick and roll king and the Rockets are in the bottom 10 in points per possession allowed and FG% allowed. That was one of the reasons we loved him the other night and this spot isn’t that much worse. With the high-end of this position not especially appealing, Paul checks in as my top option.
Kyle Lowry ($7,700 DK/$5,900 FD)
I would be stunned if Lowry is not heavy chalk on FD since he is under $6,000. He’s much more fairly priced on DK but Lowry had a game that reminded you of what he is capable of. He does only have a 15.1% usage so far but is still chugging along with 0.95 fantasy points per minute. The assist rate is a team-leading 31% and he’s still logging a ton of minutes in competitive games. As he grows more comfortable, his game will elevate and you’ll start to see more alley-oops to Bam Adebayo and other little things that just take repetition. Boston is reeling and is playing their second game in two nights, which isn’t going to help their 25th ranked defensive rating.
Honorable Mention:
Kevin Porter Jr.
Cade Cunningham (this kid is not going to shoot 13.6% from the field)
Value Spot
Shooting Guard
Donovan Mitchell ($9,400 DK/$8,000 FD)
Provided the ankle isn’t going to be an issue for Mitchell (he played full minutes last game), he showed the upside that he possesses on any given slate. The usage is spiked over 35% so far and the fantasy points per minute are 1.29. Mitchell is one of the best scorers in the game and is 12th in drives per game. Atlanta is only 19th in points in the paint allowed and they’re on a back-to-back situation. I’m willing to go back to the well, especially on FD where he’s $8,000 flat.
Tyler Herro ($6,700 DK/$6,400 FD)
Is Lowry a little too expensive for you? That’s fine, just pivot down to Herro. He continues to be a monster this season with a 29.1% usage and 1.19 fantasy points per minute. He’s already moved into the favorite spot for Sixth Man of The Year. We talked about how the defense for the Celtics has come apart and they are already having players-only meetings. It’s barely November, guys. It can be a little difficult to quantify just how Herro scores because he’s just a bucket. When a guy can score from anywhere and is getting almost 70 touches per game, he’s always going to be in play.
Honorable Mention:
Devin Booker
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (probably chalk against Westbrook defense)
Value Spot
Small Forward
LeBron James ($10,400 DK/$10,100 FD)
He’s listed as questionable but I’ll continue to treat that as it doesn’t matter. LeBron is playing his normal minutes every night and he leads the team in usage rate at 30% with 1.24 fantasy points per minute. The Thunder are 23rd in defensive rating so far and the Lakers are second in the league in possessions per game. Both teams are top 16 in pace and LeBron still excels in transition with the fourth-most points in the league. The Thunder have defended that play type well but this is LeBron and if you’re potentially playing town Thunder players, a run-back makes sense.
Josh Giddey ($5,800 DK/$6,000)
Giddey continues to make himself comfortable in the NBA and he remains very affordable on both sites. He’s virtually matched SGA in fantasy points per minute at 1.08 despite having a usage that is 8% lower at 20% and Giddey hasn’t even shot well yet with a true shooting rate under 50%. He’s logging more front-court touches than his teammate as well and with the Lakers defense still very suspect, he can contribute in every category. When we’re early in the season, it’s important to jump on easy trends. LA being second in pace and possessions per game may not last but we can take advantage as long as it does.
Honorable Mention
Jaylen Brown
Jae’Sean Tate
Value Spot
Power Forward/Center
If you thought power forward was bad last night….it’s not getting much better tonight. The plan is more or less the same in that we’ll be using the positional flexibility on both sites. On FD, you can utilize Bam Adebayo who finds himself in a spot against the Celtics that are bottom 10 in both points and rebounds allowed in the paint. Additionally, Al Horford has not played back-to-back games yet so it wouldn’t be a shock to see him get ruled out. Bam could feast on a depleted front-court in that case, just be aware of how many Heat players are in your lineup. His 1.27 fantasy points per minute are very appealing.
If you like other Heat players better, just slide Christian Wood into that slot because he’s way too cheap on FD. Wood can get it done inside with six points in the paint per game but he’s also shooting over 35% from beyond the arc. He can stretch the floor however he pleases and leads the Rockets in usage over 24% and FPPM at over 1.20. Even if the Suns get back Deandre Ayton, this isn’t the easiest assignment for him. On DK, the salary is getting up there.
As far as center goes, there appears to be some confusion. Rudy Gobert is listed as OUT on the DFS sites but he was not on the official NBA Injury Report last night. Even a quick check on Thursday morning does not show him listed. IF he does turn out to sit, Hassan Whiteside is your center of the night. He has a 1.27 FPPM and gets a Hawks interior that can be tough, but is on a back-to-back. Whiteside would not be priced accurately if Gobert is out and you just gobble up that chalk.
We also have situations that need to be resolved in Phoenix and Houston. For Phoenix, Ayton was out last game and both Frank Kaminsky and JaVale McGee played at least 20 minutes. Kaminsky wound up with the bigger fantasy score but both are cheap enough to consider and both have a FPPM over 1.10.
The Rockets could be without Daniel Theis and that allowed Alperen Sengun to play 25 minutes. Granted, the production wasn’t there but going against Anthony Davis isn’t the easiest assignment for a rookie. We could have strong value options from both of those teams. Lastly, if Horford gets ruled out, Robert Williams will be chalky since he’ll need to play as many minutes as he can handle against the Miami big men. His FPM is over 1.05 with Horford off the court so we’ll see how this shakes out during the day. The easiest solution is Gobert is actually out, but that is not the case as of 9:00 AM.
You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life
