DFSGhost 
This NBA slate is stacked at the top of the pricing grid with matchups that simply line up perfectly. While we had great success on yesterday’s small slate, large ones are my favorite, and today’s is arguably the best of the year. It’s Wet Wednesday’s edition of the Gems – let’s ride.
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
- Articles of the Day
- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guards
James Harden ($10,200 DK / $9,900 FD)
Before I get into the individual play, let me make one thing clear: I am absolutely looking to pay up at point guard today; the position is so stacked that I had trouble limiting it to three write-ups and three honorable mentions, and I will try my best to get at least two of these players in my lineup tonight. Beginning with James Harden, the point guard position is set up for a plethora of primary ball handlers to dictate tonight’s NBA slate. Harden has had two stellar games after a sluggish start to the season, with a 18/10/12 triple-double versus Detroit in a mere 29 minutes, while also posting a 29/8/8 scoring line against Indiana the game before. He hasn’t been to the stripe nearly as much this season, but if the calls go his way as they did in Indiana, where he attempts a whopping 19 free throws, his ceiling is as high as anyone. Despite only combining for 20 field goal attempts in his last two games, Harden’s 27.8% usage rate during this stretch is more than enough for him to dominate an Atlanta Hawks team that ranks 17th in defensive rating.
LaMelo Ball ($8,600 DK / $8,600 FD)
One of the marquee matchups of tonight’s NBA slate, the battle of the point guards in this one should be exciting. After starting the season with less than 30 minutes in four of the team’s first five games, LaMelo Ball has now topped that mark in three straight, where he has a 27.6% usage rate and an offensive touch that seems to be in mid-season form. Having taken a ridiculous 42 field goal attempts in his last two outings, Ball has been as dominant as ever, and with the Warriors ranking 3rd in the league in pace, get ready to watch this high-flying Hornets offense run their transition game all night long.
De’Aaron Fox ($8,500 DK / $7,700 FD)
There are quite a few spots that I’ll attack all season long, one of which being primary ball handlers versus the New Orleans Pelicans. With their opponent being on the second night of a back-to-back, Sacramento is in a good spot to push the pace and run the offense they wish, which will always be through their star player, De’Aaron Fox. In a 113-109 win against these same Pelicans just a few days ago, Fox posted a 23/7/5 scoring line, where he shot a horrible 9-for-21 from the field, including 1-for-7 from behind the arc. With a sluggish Pelicans backcourt and a hobbled Devonte’ Graham, Fox’s night will only get easier, which will not only lead to a much better offensive performance, but also leads him to being one of my favorite GPP plays of this NBA slate.
Honorable Mentions:
- Steph Curry ($11,100 DK / $10,000 FD)
- Trae Young ($9,500 DK / $8,700 FD)
- Dejounte Murray ($9,200 DK / $8,900 FD)
Shooting Guards
Fred VanVleet ($8,500 DK / $8,000 FD)
With the Raptors missing star rookie Scottie Barnes for the second straight game, look for Fred VanVleet to get all the minutes he can handle. Despite only having a 19.2% usage rate on Monday without Barnes in the lineup, VanVleet did it all for Toronto, posting a 17/9/8 scoring line on 43.8% shooting, playing over 37 minutes for coach Nick Nurse. The Wizards are off to a scorching start to begin the season, and Toronto cannot afford to give Beal and company free possessions; VanVleet will need to keep this offense in check all night long in order to do so.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker ($6,600 DK / $6,100 FD)
The play relies solely on the status of fellow backcourt runmate, Devonte’ Graham, who is nursing a hip injury and with the Pelicans playing their fourth game in six days, it’s possible we see him sit. Nonetheless, this game will feature a ton of offense with little defense, which makes for an NBA DFS goldmine. With a 22.9% usage rate this season, NAW will be counted on to take a heavier load on offense next to Jonas Valanciunas should one, if not both, of Devonte’ Graham and/or Brandon Ingram miss this game. With 13 or more FGA in every contest thus far for the Pelicans, his efficiency has been questionable, but if his shot is dropping, NAW provides us with nice upside at a fraction of the price of most options at the position.
Gary Trent Jr. ($5,100 DK / $5,400 FD)
With Scottie Barnes missing the Raptors’ game on Monday, it was Gary Trent Jr. who stepped up in a big way. Having taken 22 FGA that night, second to only OG Anunoby, Trent dropped 26 points on 10 makes. While he won’t contribute as much as FVV in the rest of the box score, Trent’s 43 minutes were second on the team, where Nick Nurse essentially ran a 6-man rotation. While they are far from the most enticing plays on any given NBA slate, a tight rotation against Washington will always interest me, and Trent is grossly mispriced compared to other Raptors.
Honorable Mentions
- Bradley Beal ($9,600 DK / $9,100 FD)
- CJ McCollum ($8,000 DK / $8,000 FD)
- Terry Rozier ($6,800 DK / $5,500 FD)
Small Forwards
Miles Bridges ($8,100 DK / $8,100 FD)
You’ll begin to notice that many plays on this NBA slate are concentrated to a few games, which is the key to success on a large slate. Going back to our Charlotte versus Golden State, Miles Bridges is finally priced appropriately, but it isn’t preventing me from writing him up. Bridges comes into this one with a 25.2% usage rate on the year, logging over 35 minutes per contest. While his scoring has taken a bit of a dip with Terry Rozier back in the lineup, Bridges has yet to have a game with fewer than seven rebounds, and has taken 16 or more FGA in six of his last seven contests. With the Hornets likely going with a smaller lineup to counter that of the Warriors, Bridges will have his way in a game with a ton of possessions – arguably the most on the entire slate.
Harrison Barnes ($7,500 DK / $7,700 FD)
Why Harrison Barnes is still priced in the 7K range is beyond me. While he is far from the flashiest player on even the smallest of NBA slates, it’s about time he gets recognition for what he’s been doing this year for Sacramento. Now, I’m writing this while he has yet to play against the Phoenix Suns, but Barnes will still be a consideration of mine come lock. Logging over 37 minutes per night, Barnes has yet to post less than 15 points and 7 rebounds in a game, where he’s also taken nearly 16 FGA behind his 22.2% usage rate for the Kings. With the Pelicans potentially missing Brandon Ingram on the wing for this one, Barnes will surely have his way with both Herbert Jones and Josh Hart, while also being needed to log heavy minutes should Ingram play; either way, Barnes won’t leave the court, and minutes are king in NBA DFS.
Franz Wagner ($5,500 DK / $5,400 FD)
Finding his offensive touch for this young Orlando team, Wagner has been a bright spot in what should be another rebuilding year for the Magic. Seeing a touch over 32 MPG at both the ‘3’ and the ‘4’ for his team, Wagner has scored in double-digits in every contest into his young NBA career and now gets a Boston team that has allowed over 50 FPPG to opposing combo wings with a questionable defensive scheme.
Honorable Mentions:
- Kevin Durant ($10,800 DK / $10,800 FD)
- OG Anunoby ($7,700 DK / $7,300 FD)
- Lauri Markkanen ($5,400 DK / $6,000 FD)
- Desmond Bane ($5,300 DK / $5,800 FD)
Power Forwards
Domantas Sabonis ($10,100 DK / $9,800 FD)
A day ending in ‘y’ means we consider Domantas Sabonis on an NBA slate. In all seriousness, the Pacers will need their star in a prime matchup against the New York Knicks frontcourt tandem of Mitch Robinson and Julius Randle, and Sabonis holds the advantage against both of them. Averaging 20/11/6 in three games versus the Knicks last season, Sabonis’ pick ‘n roll game was too much for Robinson and Randle, and with the return of Malcolm Brogdon in this one, I expect them to run it plenty. The big man is right back at it this season, logging a robust 38.3 MPG for the Pacers while averaging 21.3/11.4/4.4 on over 60% shooting, making his price more than justifiable.
Evan Mobley ($7,000 DK / $6,600 FD)
One of my favorite rookies of this year’s NBA draft, Evan Mobley has had a tremendous start to his young career. Sharing a frontcourt with Jarrett Allen, Mobley’s modest 17.8% usage rate has not prevented him from putting up some remarkable stat lines, including scoring in double-digits in seven of the Cavaliers’ eight games thus far. Facing a Portland team that is simply atrocious on defense, ranking 19th in defensive rating and only having a sole capable defender in Robert Covington, Mobley is in yet another spot to provide us with a double-double with a healthy amount of defensive statistics as well, considering the Trail Blazers play at the 8th fastest pace in the league while also having a 15% turnover rate.
Honorable Mention:
- Julius Randle ($9,400 DK / $9,300 FD)
- Wendell Carter Jr. ($6,100 DK / $6,400 FD)
Note: Power forward is awfully thin; I will likely be using one of the SF I wrote up at the position since the large majority are also PF eligible. Keep an eye out for injuries, since players such as Brandon Ingram, Tobias Harris, Kristaps Porzingis, John Collins, Kevin Love, and Scottie Barnes are all out or questionable.
Centers
- Nikola Jokic ($11,400 DK / $11,200 FD)
- Karl-Anthony Towns ($10,600 DK / $10,400 FD)
- Jonas Valanciunas ($8,500 DK / $8,800 FD)
Honorable Mentions
- Jarrett Allen ($6,400 DK / $6,700 FD)
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