NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/29

NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/29 

It’s already shaping up to be a crazy Friday night slate on the hardwood. We already have a major player out for the night but the late-night hammers are very interesting. We have a lot to get to in this seven-game slate so let’s ride with NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/28! 

One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.

Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:

• Proprietary Projection Model
• Articles of the Day
• Cheat Sheet (coming soon)

Point Guard 

De’Aaron Fox ($8,400 DK/$8,000 FD) 

The high-end of the position tonight may need to be locked in, at least one of them. Russell Westbrook would be pretty much a lock if LeBron James is out. That game isn’t until 10 PM so we may not know his status before the slate locks. The same goes for Luka Doncic because even after a poor game, he still could be without Kristaps Porzingis. 

If we don’t have clarity on those situations, Fox jumps off the page. Sacramento takes on the Pelicans and both teams are in the bottom 12 in defensive rating. Fox is driving to the hoop at a top 10 rate and New Orleans is 20th in points in the paint allowed. On top of that, Fox is fifth in touches and the Pelicans guards cannot defend him on the perimeter. If nothing else, I will have exposure in GPP. 

T.J. McConnell ($5,500 DK/$5,700 FD)

We’re sticking with just two point guards in the write-up because McConnell is going to be very popular. Malcolm Brogdon is already ruled out for this game and McConnell is going to step into a large role as Brogdon played over 36 minutes per game. He’s had 0.97 fantasy points per game during the time when Brogdon has been off the floor this year and that’s come on just a 15.7% usage rate. The Nets are 19th in defensive rating and 12th in pace. Combining McConnell with Westbrook or Luka makes far too much sense tonight. 

Honorable Mention 

Luka, Westbrook 

Damian Lillard ($9,300 DK/$8,400 FD)

Shooting Guard 

Nickell Alexander-Walker ($6,700 DK/$6,000 FD) 

I have to give FD some credit because, with their flexibility, the SG position is far more appealing. You can play Westbrook at SG, as an example. They also have NAW priced a little lower but he’s been a beneficiary from Zion Williamson being out of the lineup. The Kings are ninth in pace and NAW has a 24% usage rate and 0.97 fantasy points per minute. Not only is the usage the second-most behind Brandon Ingram, but he’s also only sporting a true shooting rate of 42.3% so far. Once the shot gets a little better, the big fantasy games are going to flow. 

Tyler Herro ($6,600 DK/$6,400 FD)

We want pieces from this game because the Hornets have allowed the fourth-most real points, play at the fourth-fastest pace, and are 20th in defensive rating. That’s napalm for fantasy production and even though Herro has been fairly quiet in the past two games, he can excel in this environment. The usage is still incredibly high at 32% and he’s third on the Heat in FPPM at 1.20. Charlotte has also allowed the fourth-highest three-point frequency at 45.1%. With that in hand, I don’t even mind Duncan Robinson for cheap in GPP only. His 496% true shooting rate is very low and he’s shooting just 31.2% from three. The career mark is 42% so positive regression can’t be far away. 

Will Barton ($5,900 DK/$5,800 FD) 

With the stats of Nikola Jokic in serious doubt, Denver could be one of the most important teams on the slate. If the Joker is out (and that would be the smart money), Barton becomes one of the primary targets. No member of the Nuggets starting unit has played more minutes without Jokic on the floor and Barton has commanded a 32.3% usage rate and 1.15 fantasy points per minute. The field may flock to Michael Porter Jr. and if he’s chalk, you play him in cash. He’s been terrible this year so far with just 0.83 fantasy points per minute. The true shooting is abysmal at 43.9% so he has to get better, but I prefer Barton all factors being equal. 

Honorable Mention 

Fred VanVleet ($8,100 DK/$8,100 FD)

Chris Duarte ($5,500 DK/ SF on FD $5,600)

Jalen Brunson ($4,800 DK/$5,000 FD) LOL at the DK price 

Small Forward 

Paul George ($10,000 DK/$10,100 FD)

He’s been quiet the past two games but one was a blowout and he logged just 27 minutes and in one game, he missed all eight three-ball attempts. The bottom line is he has a 31.8% usage rate and 1.48 fantasy points per minute while facing the Blazers. They are number one in pace right now while the Clippers sit eighth, a great mix for the game to get up and down. PG13 sits seventh in three’s attempted per game and is flirting with 80 touches per game. Don’t let the game logs trip you up. It’s really a coin flip between George and Kevin Durant if you spend up. The Pacers are bottom-five in points allowed and KD is third in points per game early on with a 32.8% usage rate and 1.54 FPPM. 

Jimmy Butler ($8,700 DK/$9,200 FD)

I said we wanted pieces from this game and either Herro or Jimmy Buckets could wind up in my lineups. Butler is always appealing because he can do everything and he could walk into a triple-double, even if it’s not super likely. He contributes to all categories and he’s capable of scoring 30+ real points on any given night. He leads Miami in FPPM at 1.33 and the assist rate of 25.9% trails only Kyle Lowry. Butler in an up-tempo game with the 10th most front-court touches sounds like a great spot. 

Honorable Mention

KD, Porter Jr, or Barton if that works better for the build

Brandon Ingram ($8,700 DK/$8,200 FD)

OG Anunoby ($6,800 DK/$7,200 FD)

Power Forward 

Domantas Sabonis ($9,400 DK/$9,300 FD)

Give me ALL of the SabonisSZN tonight! Brogdon being out not only opens a role for McConnell, but he was second in touches per game. Sabonis is 13th and some of those touches are getting funneled to him without fail. Part of the reason I know this is because he is going to go full Hulk Smash in the paint. Sabonis is third in paint touches, sixth in attempts, and fifth in points per game. Brooklyn is 27th in paint points allowed and has not even a ghost of a chance to defend him. On top of that, Sabonis is second in rebound chances per game and Brooklyn is 24th in paint rebounds allowed. We still have moving parts to this slate on the West Coast, but Sabonis is going to be one of my highest priorities regardless of any other news. 

Anthony Davis ($9,500 DK/$10,600 FD)

AD is probable and the only reason I’d have any hesitation is this is the third game in four nights. However, he’s just not priced accurately on DK if LeBron is out. Davis has a 33.3% usage rate and 1.48 fantasy points per minute without him. Cleveland has been strong in the pain with the fourth-fewest paint points allowed but they can’t stop Davis. If Bron is out, I believe the field gravitates towards Westbrook and another stud, be it Luka or Sabonis, etc… If that happens, Davis in GPP is an elite play on DraftKings since he is still under $10,000. 

Honorable Mention 

Harrison Barnes (expensive on both sites)

Evan Mobley ($6,800 DK/$6,600 FD)

Aaron Gordon ($5,000 on both) If Jokic is out, you can pair Gordon and one of Barton and MPJ together. There is so much that opens without Jokic. 

Center 

Jonas Valanciunas ($8,700 DK/$8,200 FD)

The high-end of the position could be lacking if Jokic sits out but even if he was fully healthy, JoVal would be in play. It was quite a surprise to see him leading the Pelicans in touches (26th in the league overall) and the big man is ninth in points scored in the paint. He’s also first in rebounding chances and Sacramento is dead last in boards allowed in the paint. Valanciunas has been playing almost 35 minutes per game with 1.27 fantasy points per minute scored. He’s been a dynamo and he’s being unleashed for more minutes than ever with Zion still out. 

Precious Achiuwa ($5,300 DK/$5,100 FD) 

He has been chalky on almost every slate so fr and what really catches your eye is he’s 13th in attempts in the paint so far at five per game. Achiuwa is only making 1.6 of those attempts for 32%. When you’re taking that many attempts so close to the basket, things have to change for the better. Orlando is 18th in points allowed in the paint and Achiuwa has 16 rebound chances per game with Orlando being just 15th in rebounds in the paint allowed. Toronto could use his size against Mo Bamba and Wendell Carter Jr. tonight. 

Honorable Mention 

Jarrett Allen ($6,200 DK/$7,100 FD)

Richaun Holmes ($5,800 DK/$7,500 FD)

Myles Turner ($6,400 DK/$5,700 FD)

You can find us on Twitter @DFS_Ghost and @Bucn4life