Adam Strangis NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/25
We get a nine-game slate tonight and there is already one game that we’ll have a bullet point by for how much appeal it has. There are also multiple key injuries that we need to monitor for NBA DFS: Gems with Ghost and Adam 10/25 that could throw the slate on its head, just like any other day in the association. Ghost may not be writing this but just for him – it’s Mojito Monday so let’s ride!
One thing I want to clarify based on the questions I have received over the past few years is that I will never list a player under the $5,000 price tag simply because I use the projection model to identify all targets in this range and below. While there are often plenty of options that I like at $5,000 and less, since I often find myself with not only one – but multiple – in my NBA DFS lineups, you all have access to the very model I use to make my own selections, so when asking yourself: “Should I use player X or player Y?”, make sure to check the model because that is how I make all of my own decisions and I truly ride or die by it on a daily basis.
Before running to the DraftKings, FanDuel, or Yahoo lobby to construct your NBA DFS lineup after reading this article, please make sure to utilize the abundance of tools we have at Win Daily:
- Proprietary Projection Model
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- Cheat Sheet (coming soon)
Point Guard
James Harden ($9,500 DK/$10,000 FD)
The Nets are down in the bottom five in defensive rating and while the Wizards are sitting in the top 10 through two games, that’s not likely to stick for long. Things can always change but as of Sunday night, I will have either Harden or Kevin Durant in my lineups. Harden has started a little slow but 1.32 fantasy points per minute is dynamite for other players. The Wizards have been one of the fastest and defense deficient teams in the NBA in the past couple of seasons and we’re talking about James Harden with a 29.4% usage rate and he’s under $10,000. Do we need to say much more than that?
We’ll also just mention Durant here but he’s flirting with 2.00 fantasy points per minute so far. Perhaps the field just takes the discount and goes Harden but KD is averaging 33 points per game and is only shooting 31.6% from deep so far. Not that anyone in the league can stop him but who on the Wizards has even a chance of slowing him down?
Damian Lillard ($9,300 DK/$10,100 FD)
This is more of an option on DK in my mind and almost certainly GPP only. I expect Harden to draw a healthy chunk of the field to him, and Dame Time has multiple factors going for him. One, he faces the Clippers and in this house, we play primary ball handlers against the Clips. Yes, I’m going to say it every time I write so get used to it. Lillard has started the season shooting just 2-16 from deep which needless to say isn’t going to stick. It has been surprising to see C.J. McCollum sport a 34.5% usage rate so far with 1.55 fantasy points per minute but his true shooting is over 70%. Dame could be largely ignored and I will pounce if that’s the case. The Clippers sit just 29th in defensive rating so far on top of everything else.
Dennis Schroder/Ricky Rubio
I like both of these plays if injuries break the way we think. For Schroeder, he replaced Jaylen Brown in the Celtic’s starting lineup last night and played 33 minutes. He took 14 shots and posted 32.25 DK points and frankly if you get that many minutes as a secondary scorer, I’m at least interested.
On the flip side, I would love Rubio if Darius Garland continues to miss for the Cavaliers. The veteran point guard played well over 30 minutes in the last game and has at least eight assists in each contest so far. $6,000 seems like it is a lot but truthfully, the 46.2% assist rate and 1.27 fantasy points per minute is very appealing at that salary. Rubio is in the top 10 in time of possession so the ball has been in his hands an awful lot early.
Honorable Mentions:
Trae Young ($9,300 DK/$9,300 FD)
Malcolm Brogdon ($7,900 DK/$8,300 FD)
Shooting Guard
Note – Bradley Beal is questionable but if he plays, I will have him in a Nets/Wizards stack with others we’re going to talk about.
Anthony Edwards ($7,500 DK/$7,800 FD)
The second-year player looks like he could be taking a step forward and maybe he can become more consistent this season. We know the ceiling is there but the every night aspect wasn’t the strong suit for Edwards last year. So far, he’s sharing the usage with Karl Anthony-Towns and D’Angelo Russell right about equally at 30% each. He is shooting well from deep at 9-20 so far but he’s been hitting the glass as well with 15 total rebounds and is averaging 34 minutes. His fantasy points per minute are at 1.30 so far and these teams are both in the top 10 in pace so far.
Tyler Herro ($6,400 DK/$6,200 FD)
You never want to put blinders on with NBA because things can change so fast but I’m not sure you can get away from playing Herro on FD, if nothing else. A Ghost favorite from before the season, Herro has somewhat backed up his (very strong) take of being in the Luka class of the NBA. He’s still not but he leads the Heat in usage rate at 34.3% and fantasy points per minute at 1.33. Perhaps one of the ways this veteran-laden team gets through the regular season grind is to give a lot of responsibility to Herro. The true shooting rate is 58.1% so this isn’t a case of unsustainability in that respect. There will likely be some blowout concern against the Magic but if they got hammered, Herro is likely to be at the front of the pack.
Eric Bledsoe ($6,000 DK/$5,900 FD)
I’ll be clear that I likely do not end up playing Bledsoe but we have to mention him with his hot start and examine it. Surprisingly, he has the second-highest usage rate on the Clippers so far at 22.7% and 1.20 fantasy points per minute. The Blazers are once again in the bottom 12 in defensive rating and it’s almost like the coach was not really the issue there. The true shooting for Bledsoe is 54.9% but he also has a 22% assist rate. We could do worse against one of the worst defensive teams in the league.
Honorable Mention:
Zach LaVine ($8,400 DK/$8,500 FD)
C.J. McCollum ($7,500 DK/$8,200 FD)
Nickell Alexander-Walker ($6,700 DK/$6,100 FD)
Small Forward
Paul George ($10,100 DK/$10,200 FD)
If you decide to play Lillard, he has a ready-made run-back option in PG13. George has started like a house on fire so far with a massive 33.1% usage rate and 1.74 fantasy points per minute. He’s shot a little over his head so far but he is also the man responsible for carrying the Clippers through the West. Even if you don’t turn to Lillard (or McCollum), George is in play in all formats and he is eighth in touches per game while playing almost 36 minutes. You can’t ask much more than that. Of the five games that are posted in the sportsbook, this one has the highest over/under at 234.5 with a three-point spread.
Jayson Tatum ($8,700 DK/$9,700 FD)
If Brown remains out, Tatum is arguably $1,000 too cheap on DK. He put up 31 points on 24 shots last night and his usage rate is already over 30% when Brown is not on the floor this year. Both teams played yesterday so there could be some tired legs but Tatum would simply have too much on his shoulders to be worried about. Both teams are inside the top 12 in pace to this point and you can virtually guarantee 18-20 shot attempts again from Tatum.
Kyle Kuzma ($6,700 DK/$6,000 FD)
The salary is a hair more palatable on FD but regardless, Kuzma is a strong play. I didn’t think I’d be saying that so early in the year. He’s really hitting the glass early with 13 boards per game and the Nets are 20th in rebounding so far. You may think Kuzma has just gotten lucky with the rebound but he’s tied for 13th in rebound chances per game so far. He is the only non-center on the list outside of Harrison Barnes and Julius Randle (I’m counting Anthony Davis as a center and he can’t stop me).
My point is that is a distinct effort to be an asset in this aspect of the game. The shot comes and goes to be sure but this game should be up and down all night long and as long as Rui Hachimura is out, Kuzma is starting and on the court for more than 30-32 minutes. The usage rate hovering around 23% could be a lot worse as well.
Honorable Mention
Brandon Ingram ($8,300 DK/$8,200 FD)
Khris Middleton ($7,200 DK/$7,800 FD)
Scottie Barnes ($5,900 DK/$5,100 FD)
Power Forward
Giannis Antetokounmpo ($10,600 DK/$11,200 FD)
It oddly doesn’t feel like it, but Giannis has a 37.4% usage rate and 1.73 fantasy points per minute when Jrue Holiday is off the floor this year. The Pacers have guarded the paint well with the sixth-fewest points allowed but Giannis cannot be defended by mortals. The Bucks will also need his size with no Brook Lopez as Indiana throws out Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis (always in play) at the same time. The Pacers are 18th in defensive rating and they’ve given up a little over 116 points per game so far.
My plan with this position is to utilize positional flexibility and move the pieces around. Many of the small forwards can be played as a power forward and we may well have a punt at SF on DK in Nassir Little. He probably replaces Norman Powell in the Blazers starting lineup and as long as the model agrees, he’s one of the prime salary savers. Don’t forget we’ve talked about KD as well so you can anchor with an expensive one and move the rest around. It’s not the best position tonight as of now. If Al Horford is active on a back-to-back, I’d be interested there as well. If not, keep an eye on Grant Williams.
Center
Karl-Anthony Towns ($9,700 DK/$10,900 FD)
Especially on DK where he is under $10,000, I love the idea of running it right back with KAT. The last game saw him foul out in the fourth quarter with a good chunk of time left. Towns has only played 29 minutes in each game but the fantasy points per minute are over 1.60. All the same reasons we liked him last game since the Pelicans are still without Zion and they are 19th in rebounds in the paint and 25th in points allowed in the paint. KAT is tied for seventh in post-ups and while playing traditionally in the paint isn’t KAT’s game, he put up 25 points in a limited time last game and I doubt he only grabs four rebounds again.
Clint Capela ($6,800 DK/$7,500 FD)
The veteran has seen his minutes rise to 27 in the past game and he’s fourth in paint touches, second in field goal attempts and sixth in rebounding chances. Those have come in limited minutes, which is pretty impressive. Detroit is fifth in rebounding in the early going so I think we see Capela clip 30 minutes in this game. Capela also has 1.37 fantasy points per minute so far on an 18.8% usage rate so Capela is very affordable for his role.
Montrezl Harrell ($5,400 DK/$5,800 FD)
Trez can be used as a power forward on FD, adding some depth to the position. In 12 minutes playing with Bradley Beal, Harrell has 1.13 fantasy points per minute and he is going to be a problem down low for the Nets. He’s already seventh in attempts inside the paint and Brooklyn is 30th in points allowed in the paint. They were 23rd last year so this is a stable trend that we can take advantage of. It wouldn’t surprise me at all if Trez gets the double-double bonus and I’m interested in both sites. He’s played at least 26 minutes in both games and logged 34 against the pacers in overtime.
Honorable Mention
Nikola Jokic ($11,000 DK/$11,100 FD)
Jonas Valanciunas ($7,900 DK/$6,600 FD)
Precious Achiuwa ($4,500 DK/$4,600 FD)
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